The National Hunt Diary

Royal Ascot preview

2011-06-12T12:47:00.001+01:00

As promised, an Ascot preview. Apologies if this becomes disjointed – I have been delayed in finalising and posting this, and as a result have updated based on final declarations for Tuesday's racing.

The sprints:

These races have lost a lot of lustre in my eyes, as the two most promising 3yo sprinters both bypass the Golden Jubilee to try their luck over a mile. Dream Ahead, returning from a minor injury that ruled him out of the Guineas, will take on the mighty Frankel in the St James’ Palace, whilst Maqaasid, 3^rdin the Guineas and seemingly not staying the trip, goes to the Coronation. In my view neither of these horses truly stays a mile (we have less evidence in the case of Dream Ahead, but he shaped as a sprinter as a juvenile, and there is little in his pedigree to suggest he wants to go far) and both would be dangerous with a 3yo allowance against older horses over 6f. The withdrawal of Lady of the Desert through injury is a shame, too, and weakens the King’s Stand as a contest

In their absence, I won’t be having a bet at this stage, as the most useful trial for the Jubilee is the Kings Stand. Delegator is a worthy favourite but might just prove a 7f specialist, the saddest fate of all for a group 1 horse. Let’s wait until after the King’s Stand.

For the King’s Stand, I think Sole Power needs a paved road to show his best form, and the recent rain may have done for him. Kingsgate Native certainly goes on the shortlist, as he has good recent form (second to Sole Power at Haydock) and has won at the festival before, in the Jubilee as a 3yo. 6f form is essential to perform well in this race. Prohibit is one I like at a price and he’s on the shortlist, and Monsieur Chevalier is another who performs well at this meeting. Let’s wait and see what weather, rain, withdrawals and the draw do before placing any bets.

The stayer:

Sometimes you build a shortlist by elimination. This is one of those times.

I’m seemingly in the minority in thinking that Fame and Glory won’t stay the Gold Cup trip. I know this is a unique and long race, but there are lots who won’t stay this year, as far as I can tell. Rite of Passage is doubtful to turn up, and must be considered doubtful to run his race if he does. Duncan won the Yorkshire Cup well enough, but this is 6f further and I can’t see him managing it. Blue Bajan and the Betchworth Kid are handicap hurdlers. Kasbah Bliss is exposed, a doubtful runner, and won’t have the right ground. Geordieland is a monkey, and Cavalryman is a dog who won’t stay.

Sometimes you find a winner by elimination. This is one of those times.

From my shortlist of Holberg, Manighar, Brigantin, Askar Tau or Tastahil, I can only see one probable winner. Askar Tau might stay this trip on class and pedigree, but is unplaced the three times he’s gone more than 2m, and has never tried this trip. Holberg has never gone more than 2m, and it is very difficult to back a bin Suroor horse until they show they’re firing (which could easily happen early in this festival). Manighar, too is a doubtful stayer and will have to reverse form with Duncan and Blue Bajan, and I’m not convinced he can. Tastahil looks to lack the class for this level (unplaced last year) and is not certain to act away from Chester. Which leaves Brigantin. Trained by Andre Fabre, he is yet to try more than 2m, but is only four and thus still getting stronger. His pedigree gives him a scrape at the trip, and his best form is on the sort of good ground he can expect here. In what seems like a weak renewal behind a favourite I’m keen to oppose, he looks the winner.

HOWEVER: Ben, who runs the wonderful Narrowing the Field blog, is a racing mate who I trust. He knows a thing or two about the dosage method, and he doesn't think Brigantin will stay (We talked about this on twitter). He does think Fame and Glory will. So you can go with my gut, and a big price, or his gut and science, and a small price. Frankly, I can't fault you if you go with him.

The other championship races:

The Queen Anne is being billed as a straight contest between Canford Cliffs and Goldikova. Personally, I can’t see Goldikova winning. I even suggested recently that she might not place. I’m backing off that statement slightly, partly because I would hate to see such a wonderful and consistent horse underperform, and partly because the race is lacking strength in depth. I still think that, against the boys, and now six, she’s going to struggle to quicken past them. Last year, she narrowly beat Paco Boy, and the Hannon contestants this year are simply better horses. Canford Cliffs looks the winner to me, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dick Turpin, or Cape Blanco chasing him home in second. I really hope I’m wrong, though. C’mon Goldie!

Update: Dick Turpin will miss the Queen Anne, improving Goldikova's chances of second, as only Cape Blanco is remotely group one class of the remainder.

Workforce will swerve the Prince of Wales for the Eclipse, depriving us of a mouth-watering contest with So You Think. In the Derby winner’s absence, the most dangerous opponent for the Aussie superstar will be Planteur, impressive winner of the Ganay back on 1,000 Guineas day. Rewilding is third in the market, but in my view won’t give of his best unless he’s going 1m4f or further (he would have enlivened the Coronation Cup last week). I really don’t think this is a contest. Planteur (assuming he is left in) is a genuine group one horse, who’ll have the trip and ground to suit, and would grace any field. However, So You Think is, I believe, in a different league from any horse in his division and is worthy of his very short price.

The 3yo races:

I’ve said already that I think Dream Ahead is a sprinter who won’t stay; for me Frankel is a clear winner of the St James’ Palace (not revolutionary thinking, I know) and I think that Dubawi Gold and Excelebration (who might not stay a mile in this class) are the likeliest to finish behind him.

The fillies’ race (Coronation) will be more open, but Memory is yet to win over more than 6f and will need to leave her Guineas run well, well behind her. She’s capable of that on class, but I’d like to see it before I start backing her. The competition doesn’t look particularly stiff, with most of the top horses from the two Guineas stepping up in trip (the two winners having faced off in the Oaks last week). Theysken’s Theory, stepping up in class after a nice win at York, is still open to improvement and must be expected to place, but my suspicion is that something will prove too good for her, but I don’t know what. As a result, I’m keen not to bet on this race.

I’m not going to look at the King Edward or the Ribblesdale until some of the horses are taken out; the bulk of the good horses are doubtful runners at best. However, after a weak Oaks, the Ribblesdale will be one for the notebook, and I’d keep an eye on whomever Cecil sends to the King Edward (with World Domination the obvious choice). Horse to follow Solar Sky is a probable for the Queen's Vase, and the Galileo son doesn't look like two miles will be a problem for him. He is a likely bet when a market appears.

The juveniles:

Coventry:

This represents my first ante-post bet, on Commissar (I took a NRNB ante-post on Brigantin). Regular readers will know that I fell in love with this horse when I saw him on 1,000 Guineas day, though I was still surprised by the ease with which he won that day. Obviously I wasn’t the only one to be impressed, as Godolphin swooped (early in the year for them to be buying talented juveniles) and he is now an inmate of the talented Mr al Zarooni. Coral’s 16/1 was an outlying price and I was happy to get on board. This looks like a good contest – it is typically the best juvenile contest in the first half of the year – and Fulbright, in particular, is to be feared, but the step up to 6f should suit the selection.

Albany:

I remember reading the hype of the bloodstock industry about the first season sires’ yearlings last year. Sir Percy, Teofilo, Dark Angel, et al, were all supposedly throwing wonderful youngsters. Wait and see, I thought. Well, we may not have to wait too much longer, as the early results are exceptional. All have produced very forward juveniles who show signs of improving as they age.

Of all of their collective offspring, however, the one that I think the most of won a listed event last week at Naas. Yes, Teolane, daughter of Teofilo from a versatile racer called Masnada (rated 101, multiple winner over 7-10f), is my idea of the Albany winner, and now appears on my horses to follow list. I’ll wait for the final decs to back her, and will wait and see what Ward’s horses do on the first days, but I really think she’s special. I just wish she was trained by anyone other than Jim Bolger. The wound is still raw from watching him ruin the career of the beautiful and talented Cuis Ghaire (but there is happier news on that front, as Al Maktoum will own her offspring, and her sister’s).

Queen Mary:

Shumoos is a short-priced favourite, and goodness me, does she deserve to be. She was hugely impressive in winning at Haydock, quickening away from a good field. The form was well and truly franked when Frederick Engels sluiced up on his next start, at Musselburgh. He goes in the Windsor Palace, so we’ll have another chance to assess her form before she runs. Even without that check, though, the only way I can see her losing is if she misbehaves badly in front of the big crowd, or if she is turned over by a Wesley Ward speedball.

Looking ahead with this year’s juveniles:

There’s nothing worse than the Guineas markets in autumn and winter. The value has dried up, all the horses are fairly priced, or shorter, and there’s no such thing as a certainty where growing and staying healthy are concerned. So it is rare that I bet before the start of the 3yo season – ideally, either side of the trials. This prejudice only grew stronger when I backed Peter Martins the week after Cheltenham, a fortnight before it was announced he’d miss the first half of the season.

The radical conclusion, then, is that if you’re going to bet on juveniles, bet early so that you have a price to justify the risk. Both Commissar and Teolane have the pedigree to stay a mile, and are with trainers who will aim them at the top (even Bolger can’t avoid running Teolane in decent races, surely?). If they win next week, their prices will collapse, and there’ll be no value until the last week in April. So I’m getting on both now, in the hope I’ll have some tickets that’ll keep me warm all winter.

Ante-post focus (for the purposes of monitoring, all bets are level stakes (2pt win or 1pt e/w):

Commissar – 16/1, Coventry – e/w (Coral)

Brigantin – 22/1, Gold Cup – e/w (Victor Chandler – now 16s generally)

Commissar – 33/1, 2,000 Guineas – e/w (Bet365)

Teolane – 20/1, 1,000 Guineas – e/w (William Hill)

Horses to follow update

2011-06-12T12:29:00.000+01:00

With Royal Ascot coming up next week, I thought I’d put down a few thoughts on some of the major races, and that'll come later today. I’m having a particularly detailed look at the juvenile races. First, though, an update on the rather depressing performances of my horses to follow, and a couple of new juveniles to add to the list:

Midsummer Fair didn’t run well in his latest start, upped in class. He may well have been bang on for his debut in the Wood Ditton, as there was no evidence of the expected improvement (although he did seem to stay 10f). He’s removed from the list.

Bourne ran very badly at Epsom on Derby day, finishing back in the pack and never contending. I’m prepared to allow him one bad race, as the heat, ground and course were all unusual and any one could be an excuse. He remains on a decent mark and I could still see him winning the Ebor in August.

Laashak ran very badly too, and I’m less forgiving. His 6^th of 9 in a maiden at Newcastle was a step backwards and he is taken off the list.

Red Aggressor ran into another good one in finishing second at Windsor to debutante Rebellious Guest (who is 16s for the Coventry, suggesting that he’s held in some regard). He stayed 6f well, and is sure to win soon enough. He stays on the list.

Ocean Rosie was campaigned over too far (1m3f) at Kempton on Tuesday, and was not bet on – however, connections clearly don’t think she has the speed to win over a mile, and I’m not prepared to ignore that opinion. She’s taken off the list.

Perpetually finished dead last in a Sandown handicap on Friday and is taken off the list without hesitation. Pretty, but not sufficiently talented, must be the final assessment.

There are also two horses to add to the list, both of whom ran on Friday at Sandown:

John Lightbody will have entered a lot of notebooks given the eye-catching style of debut win, over 7f. This Teofilo son, half-brother to some smart 10-12f types, will get a good education with Mark Johnstone and is one to keep on the right side of. He has a Derby entry.

El Diamante didn't win on debut, but finished a fair fourth, flashing some speed late on. Hannon's horses are coming on for a run, and this Royal Applause daughter must be expected to improve significantly next time out. From the TV shots, she doesn't look quite the finished article and she might make up into a decent 3yo.

A few horses to follow today

2011-06-04T11:13:00.000+01:00

The full analysis of yesterday's meeting will have to wait, but there were a few interesting horses. As far as the horses to follow list is concerned, no bets were placed yesterday. Even drifting to 9/4, Blue Bunting was too small a price to be fair, and she remains a no-bet until we see fairer prices. Clowance didn't get her preferred ground, but is now in foal to Oasis Dream and will, with regret be removed from the list. It was wonderful to see her running such a brave race in third. The third entry, Crystal Gal, was a non-runner. Havant was never likely to see out 1m4f and will stay on the list waiting for a 1m2f race with cut.

Today sees three horses running for the list:
Midsummer Fair, winner of the Wood Ditton, goes in a grade 2 conditions race at Doncaster (3.25) where the main competition is the progressive Buthelezi. He's available at a generous 5/1 and is drifting, with money coming for Alkimos. He's obviously progressive but has done less than the selection and will have to improve significantly in his third start. 2pt win.

Bourne runs in the 4.50 at Epsom, a 1m4f handicap. He's nicely in at the weights and will benefit from this longer trip. I'm happy to back him at 3/1, however, Zuider Zee is a Gosden horse I really rate and who strikes me as a significant danger. For the purposes of this format, I'm on Bourne, but I'll also have a reverse forecast and an each-way saver on Zuider Zee. 2pt win.

Finally, Laashak runs at Newcastle, in the maiden (8.30) and is justifiably favourite. This looks a decent race but if he's the horse I believe him to be he should dispatch this field with ease. 2pt win.

I'd also recommend having an eye on the juvenile race at Doncaster (4.30) in which Connect makes his debut for Michael Bell. He's a horse with an eye-catching pedigree and a decent run here could see him added to the list.

Ayr - an example placepot

2011-05-25T10:59:00.002+01:00

As I hoped, I’ve carved out some time to look at my placepot for Ayr. I’m posting it in advance of the racing taking place so that you can see, hopefully, the thought processes I tried to explain in my last post.

Shape of the card:

This is definitely not a big meeting. The highest prize to the winner is £5.5k, and there are plenty of horses rated in the 40s taking part. Still, fields are fairly sizable, with 65 horses currently declared over the six races. The first race is a juvenile maiden, whilst the remaining five are handicaps. No handicap will have 16 runners or more thanks to an unfortunate non-runner in the second bringing the field down to 15.

There are a couple of short-priced favourites in the handicaps, but nothing I’d trust as a banker, and that suits me, because handicap bankers are a recipe for sleepless nights. I’m therefore thinking about a largish single perm, if I can find a banker in the first.

I can. VC’s early show has Letsgoroundagain at 8/11; if anything, I think that is long. He was 4^th, and visually impressive, in the Magic City maiden at Newbury. Although the winner hasn’t franked the form, lots of others have, and it is probably the best juvenile contest so far this season. A scopey Redback colt, he’ll enjoy 6f, and is drawn best of all in stall 1. Of the dangers, Holy Roman Warrior gets a good write-up in Taplin and goes for Fahey/Hannigan. He’s dangerous, but drawn wide. I’d be tempted to back him as a winner (5/1 is a good price) but I don’t care if he beats the selection. 3^rd would be fine. My one concern is a non-runner – if I see one, I won’t place the bet, as I’d be down to seven runners and needing a banker in the top two of a maiden.

I can’t find anything I particularly like in the third or the sixth, and that leads me to take something of a scattergun approach. At the moment, I’m planning a big perm.

Going through the card:

Race one – As discussed. I’ve watched a vid of Letsgoroundagain, and of Joshua The First (nearest to favourite on form), and looked up all the horses in Taplin. Nothing I’ve seen gives me any concern that I shouldn’t have Lets as a banker to place.

Race two – This is a typically trappy placepot handicap, with 15 runners. I just want to survive this, whilst keeping my perm to a minimum. The favourite is Yours, with the pundits seeming to expect a step up in trip to work some improvement. I watched a video of his last start and he struck me as a hold-up horse making late improvement, not a horse needing further. I might be wrong, but for 7/2 and favourite in this race I’d want more confidence in his suitability. Second favourite, Juarla, doesn’t appeal to me, as nothing in her form suggests she acts on turf, and top weight with a 6lb penalty could easily be enough to stop her (at this grade of racing, penalties have a bigger impact as they’re a much bigger proportion of the rating that a horse has earned).

What horse do I like? Well, none of them, very much. Dotty Daroch is running better this season than previously and appears to get along with Lee Newman. 6f might be the right trip for her, and she’s included. These Dreams has had plenty of racing, but never at 6f and on turf, both of which independently have suited her. She’s another who might nick a place. Finally, a chance is taken with Passing Moment, who hasn’t run terribly in handicaps, might enjoy a drop back to 6f, and is paired with a jockey I don’t have an opinion on (as opposed to Andrew Elliot, a claimer who stands out for his incompetence, although I’m sure he’s a lovely guy).

Race three – This one is really, really trappy. 5f handicaps always are, and although the ratings in this field are the highest of the day, it is hard to get excited about any of the competitors, and wide coverage is key. I’m not sure why there is an expectation that Duchess Dora will overturn form with Judge ‘n’Jury, and I’ll be on the latter (also marginally better drawn in stall 2). Hopefully, Duchess will be the favourite. However, I want plenty of cover to survive this leg and I’ll also take Mayoman (excellent strike rate but needs to overcome draw), Le Torreador (can overcome rise in weights, gets on with jockey) and The Nifty Fox (reliable, well-drawn, canny connections).

Race four – This one seems the most straightforward of the handicaps, and the market agrees, with Divine Call (evens favourite on opening shows) representing Cheveley Park and Haggas on her handicap debut, having taken a maiden on her fourth start as a 3yo. Keiron Fallon rides, and a mark of 78 seems lenient. However, she’s obviously not the most reliable (lost all three turf starts at short prices, once odds-on) and is lightly raced. Her fitness and attitude need to be taken on trust, and I’d like a second option.

That option is Cara’s Request. This means taking the first two in the market, but you can’t be contrary for the sake of it. Cara’s Request has been placed in 7 of his last 8 starts over 7f (winning four). He’s the better drawn of the Nicholls duo in this race and is likely to give a good account of himself (though he may be high enough in the weights).

Race five – This one got more complicated when Eparnay was declared a non-runner. It is an object lesson in the complications of planning a placepot, as there is no clear favourite, and four horses need to be considered as potential market leaders. Of those, a look at the form makes me keen to oppose Madame Excelerate (did not behave herself on her last start) and Amtaar (back after well over a year, high in weights, moved to a lesser yard) but liking the others.

Casino Night (jockey is 2-1-1 in four starts, C&D winner) and Spavento (finally broke maiden LTO, consistent and has placed of higher marks). I’m also selecting Many Welcomes, who is currently 17/2 but sixth in the market, and thus likely to be underbet. She’s also, in my view, priced based on an AW run over 9f. Back on turf over 8f, I’d be hopeful of her overturning that form.

Race six – The last race on the card is the sort that tempts me to give up on midweek placepots. This is a dire contest for exposed staying handicappers. Frankly, I don’t know why they bother. Adding to the pain, it is currently an eight-runner handicap, and as it is the last race, there is a real danger of it being reduced to seven after the bets are placed. This cries out for extensive coverage.

I’m taking Trojan Gift (highest rated and only four, might be least bad), Oh Landino (has placed form LTO) and Ballade de la Mer (won this contest last year). I’ve not got any great confidence in any one of them, but hard to imagine a scenario in which all three are unplaced.

Initial Selections:

1 – Letsgoroundagain (6)

2 – Dotty Daroch (5), These Dreams (7), Passing Moment (12)

3 – Judge ‘n’ Jury (1), Le Torreador (6), The Nifty Fox (7), Mayoman (8)

4 – Cara’s Request (2), Divine Call (6)

5 – Casino Night (2), Spavento (7), Many Welcomes (9)

6 – Trojan Gift (1), Oh Landino (8), Ballade de la Mer (9)

This gives me a perm of 1x3x4x2x3x3 = 216 lines. I try to keep my stake between £20 and £40, so a 20p bet would be slightly beyond my limits (though manageable) whilst a 10p bet would be at the bottom of the limit. I can also look at my bet and make changes – individual selections being only one part of shaping a bet.

If I’m betting to stakes of less than 50p, I need to see realistic evidence that I can double up my stake repeatedly unless lots of outsiders come in. My feeling about the card is that we’re unlikely to see all the favourites placing, but that a huge dividend is less likely than usual, because most races have a few prominent horses. I am expecting a dividend in the £100 range, with races 2,3 and 5 being the trappiest. I’d be hopeful of having at least two horses placed in race 3 and 6, which would give me 40p to a 10p stake, even if no others doubled. If I come up, then, I’d put the lowest likely gain at £40 (or roughly double a £1 stake).

The race that keeps worrying me, though, is race 4. The favourite needs to be in my selection, but she is more vulnerable (in my view) than the price suggests. Whilst Cara's Request is the obvious cover, Adrian Nicholls prefers the other stable entrant. I’d hate to miss a bumper dividend if the first two fell out of the places, and a third selection would give me 324 lines, or £32.40, and a feeling of significant confidence if my banker places in the first.

Northern Fling is a market mover in the third but has never won over a mile and never looked like he needs it (from reading the form). Academy Blues (1) may be off his highest mark, but he was 2^nd over a mile LTO and is happier over this trip. With Adrian Nicholls riding for his dad, he’s added to the selection.

Unless I’m surprised by non-runners, then, the bet will be:

6; 5+7+12; 1+6+7+8; 1+2+6; 2+7+9; 1+8+9 for 324 lines at 10p/line = £32.40.

Best of luck to those of you playing. I’ll be back later to look at how it has gone.

Placepotting

2011-05-24T22:46:00.000+01:00

I've been promising a blog on placepots for a while now, and this seems like as good a time as any to produce one. Why? Well, because for the first time, I feel that I have a handle on how to produce winning placepots. I'm certainly winning at the moment and am up over £200 since January. I haven't had a truly big win yet, but I'm hopeful. In the mean time, I've picked up some meaningful prizes, most recently £152 to a £24 stake at Great Yarmouth.

I should warn you, this is by a margin the longest post I've yet written. So my advice is to save it until you have some time to read it in detail. I do hope you find it helpful, and please make use of the comments box, email or twitter to let me know your thoughts.

I'm going to talk you through how I think about the placepot. Beginning with the analysis of whether to even bother going through the card, based on the "shape" of the card, then an analysis of how to construct shortlists, and a bet, before deciding whether to bet at all. I'll also talk a bit about certain types of races, and how I typically bet on them. First, though, a brief bibliography, beginning with the best book on gambling I've ever read.

A little bit of guidance:

I was always fascinated by the ideas of pool betting, but I didn't start winning until I went looking for guidance. There's a lot of rubbish out there. There is, however, one tremendous book - Exotic Betting: How to Make the Multihorse, Multirace Bets That Win Racing's Biggest Payoffs. Written by Steve Crist, one of the Daily Racing Form's finest, it has a strong American focus. However, the principles it espouses work just as effectively here - with the advantages that we don't pay tax, and that the minimum stake on the placepot is far lower than on their "exotics". The one problem is that, for multirace betting (as opposed to forecast/tricast betting, and the US equivalents) it focuses on win-only betting. However, the differences are relatively straightforward. I'd urge you to invest in this book; like all brilliant ideas, the concepts he suggests are so straightforward that it is hard to believe you hadn't thought of them yourself.

On the placepot itself, the best guide I've found is written by Gary, a blogger I've been following for years over at nag-nag-nag. He starts with the nuts and bolts of how the bet works, and how to place it, which I won't bother to repeat here, as well as providing his own insights into how the bet can be made to pay.

I'd also recommend looking at the totepool live information screen, especially as bets are going on. This gives an invaluable insight into where other people's money is going - the money you need to take off them. The week's history, with results as well as placepot payouts, will provide some context for what I call the "shape" of a placepot.

The "shape" of placepots:
I've used the word "shape" to define a placepot bet a number of times now. I don't know if this is how other people think about racecards, or if it is a concept that will make sense. To me, though, there is a certain character to every racecard, and certain characteristics make it easier, or harder, to make a profit from placepot betting. When I sit down and analyse a potential placepot bet, my first though process is very quick (less than five minutes). Analysing the shape of a card is, I suspect, a matter of experience; it is certainly something I do quickly and confidently these days, and I do have a fairly good track record. I was terrible at this when I started.

Going through the thought exercise of shaping a card is a good discipline even if you don't intend to place a bet. The more often you do it, the better - you can also combine it with scanning the cards for horses you want to follow, and it motivates you to examine the results, and spot patterns. So, what do I do?

Big and small meetings:
This is the first consideration. A big meeting typically means a bigger pool. Saturday meetings have large pools, particularly the televised meetings. Festival pools are often huge. These meetings, too, will often have "dumber" money in the pools; that is, the proportion of the pot provided by punters with limited form knowledge, or small numbers of lines (or both) will be higher, increasing the edge for the thoughtful punter. However, these meetings are often highly competitive, and winning pools can be tough.

My preference is to look for "uncompetive" days at big meetings - the rare days when I can find one or two horses that I really fancy against the field in several races, allowing me to back large numbers in other races without the perm getting out of control. A good example was the Friday of Aintree's Grand National meeting, in which I singled Big Bucks, Wishfull Thinking and Zarkandar in a single perm of 72 lines (1x1x1x3x4x6) for £36. 6 winning lines paid £320+, even with an unusually low (for Aintree) payout of £107.

On the other hand, small meetings typically have smaller, less competitive fields, and smarter competition. Here, I'm looking to play if I can see several weak favourites, and keep a relatively small perm whilst seeing some other favourites beaten (say, 2x2x3x2x1x1, as at Yarmouth last week, where I had one winning £1 line from a £24 bet, for £152).

The betting order:
Having viewed the card as a whole, we swiftly go through the six races that make up the placepot.

One revelation from Crist's book was that it is the betting order, not the price, that is the chief determining factor in the inclusion of horses in other people's placepot. Think of two ten horse races. One has a 1/2 favourite, a 3/1 second favourite, and the rest at 6/1 or higher. The other has market leaders at 5/2, 3/1 and 7/2. You'd expect the 1/2 favourite (67% chance of winning, if we ignore the bookies cut) to be around 67% of the pool, and the 5/2 favourite to have about 28%. Crist's argument, and the live information board supports this, is that the 1/2 favourite will probably be underbet, whilst the 5/2 favourite will probably be overbet. I'd expect (and I have no statistical evidence for this) to see approximate 55% and 40% of the market, respectively, on those two favourites.

I would, therefore, be happier opposing favourites in a card with lots of longish priced favourites (heritage handicaps and festival races are classic "overbet favourite" races - amazing numbers of punters use the "favourite" button, the last resort of the coward (or the tragic resting place of the backers of non-runners)) but I don't shy away from backing odds-on favourites as bankers. You certainly need to know what your opinion on every favourite (or likely favourite, remember that betting forecasts are dodgy) is before you decide whether to bet.

Field size:
This is to some extent linked to meeting size, but there are differences. Some conditions (fast jumping ground, for example) can lead to very small fields. Some races at big meetings can have very small fields (novice chases, for some reason, seem to fall into this category very often).

More importantly, however, it changes the way in which we think about place betting, as opposed to win betting. Smaller fields means fewer places (4 horses or fewer means that you need to find the winner), and can, counter-intuitively, mean that more punters are knocked out of the pool. It may be hard to find the winner of a 16 horse handicap, but 2 sensible selections gives you an excellent chance of a placed horse - whereas you need the winner in a 4 horse race.

As I write this, a six race card at Huntingdon has just paid £2,800+ due primarily (I suspect) to favourites finishing unplaced in four- and six-horse races. Make sure you have a clear opinion on small field races before you take a stance on the card. Don't expect to be backing fewer horses automatically in smaller horse races - that's what everyone else is doing.

Estimating returns:
It is almost impossible to estimate a return on a placepot. So much depends on whether specific favourites are placed or not. However, in thinking through the factors above you can with some reliability form a ballpark estimate of your own likelihood of winning, and the likely dividend. The two things are related.

So, for example, you may think defensively about a possible perm: I can't find many bankers, and I need extensive coverage in at least these two races... I can't form a perm with fewer than 108 lines, and that means 20p lines is the most I can afford. That's fine, though, because if a few short priced horses come in, I'll soon be up to 2x2x2x1x1x1 surviving, so if it is a small pool, I could easily be looking at 1.6 shares or more. On the other hand, if I only get 1 line through, but I see the odds-on shot beaten in one of the first two races, 0.2 lines in a big pool would be fantastic.

A more aggressive view of a placepot is: There's three horses who can't lose, and I can get plenty of coverage elsewhere. If I take on the other three favourites, I can have a 1x1x1x2x4x4 perm for £32 at £1 lines, and I only need one favourite beaten for the payout to be decent for one surviving line.

Both of these approaches are valid. You do need to be correct in assessing your bankers, and you do need to be realistic (and experienced) in assessing likely outcomes. Finally, of course, there is no guarantee that you'll be right on any given day - but you can be right more often than the market if you plan your perming around the shape of the card and your estimated return.

Should you think about betting?:
By this point, you've formed a crude impression of whether you fancy the key favourites or not (in my case, going on the timeform summary and my own rudimentary form knowledge), how you view the shape of the card, and your likely perm approach/staking size - coupled with a vague expectation of estimated returns under different result outcomes.

The key decision now is, should I bet? My own rule of thumb is to only bet if I expect to win 6 times my stake (for example, if I had 48 50p lines (a typical stake, for me, of £24) I would be hoping to win approximately £150 - and I don't care if I do that with one line surviving in a £300 payout, or 12 in a £24 payout). This can only ever be a crude estimate, but my experience is that I'll get a placepot payout roughly once in five attempts (though it has been 1:3.5 this year); so getting six times my money back is necessary to maintain profit.

I quite often don't bet. I aim to get better at not betting this season.

The only other point to stress at this stage in the process is that you cannot become wedded to your ideas. You might entirely change your mind about a favourite through watching a video, coming across a trainer, jockey, or draw statistic, or just through looking again at the opposition. You might find a non-runner at the very end that ruins your plans. Every time you rethink your mental estimated return, or change your rough perming plan think again: should I bet?

How to bet:
If you decide to bet, you need to work out, obviously, who you should be betting on. This is in two parts - picking selections in indvidual races, and putting your bet together. Crist is truly extraordinary on the importance of putting your bet together, and my summary below does not do him justice. I think that the actual selection of horses is something that punters are generally quite good at, but I have a few placepot-specific tips that I'll return to. For now, though, let's focus on putting your perm together.

To bank or not to bank?:
The essence of a placepot is to survive, to still be there at the bitter end. We've all had horses disappoint, and (especially in jumps racing) that moment when you realise your selection will not place can be sickening. The temptation, then, is to put at least two horses in every race selection. There are two reasons not to do this, however, and they are related.
1. There's always another day. So your banker got beaten? Don't worry about it. You only need to win once in five attempts to do very nicely on the placepot.
2. It is mathematically stupid. Consider the following two perms:
a) 1x1x2x2x3x3 @£1 = £36. 12 horses selected.
b) 2x2x2x2x2x2 @£1 =£64. 12 horses selected.
c) 1x1x2x2x4x4 @£1 = £64. 14 horses selected.

Option b contains no bankers. It might, on very rare occassions, be impossible to find a banker. If you're determined to bet regardless, you'd better be sure of high returns for a win, because your perm costs will spiral (or you'll divide your stake down to very low levels). I avoid bankers, sometimes, at the Cheltenham Festival. Everywhere else, if I can't find at least one banker, I don't bet. The reason is shown above; with two bankers, you can either have more horses running for you (option c) or far less cost for the same horses (option a). This is because the number of horses you select is additive, whereas your perm is multiplicative.

How to write a perm (or perms):
Writing perms is broadly a question of understanding the maths above, your own staking limits, and the shape of the card. Although this varies based on individual race selections, I am most comfortable, and most successful, within a few perm types:
Single banker, several doubles: e.g. 1x2x2x2x2x3 (48 lines). With only a single banker, keeping the number of lines to a sensible number means being fairly restricted in other races. However, in uncompetitive cards, this is often possible.
Double banker, extra coverage: e.g. 1x1x2x2x3x5 (60 lines). A second banker means that it is possible to gain quite extensive coverage in one horrible race without ending up with a huge card.
Single banker, low stake coverage: e.g. 1x2x2x3x4x6 (288 lines). In this example, I reduce my stake to allow wider coverage in a couple of particularly trappy races, with the hope that I'll have several lines returned. This is the method that I will be using at Ayr tomorrow (which I'll blog on if I can).

Something else that I learn from Crist is that it is often wise to write two perms, or more. I have started to do this, and it is something I will do more of - although it is perhaps more valuable in the context of win-only multirace betting. The principle is that, if we see two weak short-priced favourites, it is unlikely that both will be beaten - however, we are confident that one will be beaten. We can therefore construct two perms, each opposing one weak favourite. This is perhaps easier to explain with an example and it is something I'll return to when I have time to blog an example of this before I place the bet.

Is it worth betting?:
Again, return to the key question: now I've seen the perm I want to bet, and really thought about the card, is it still sensible to place the bet? Don't do it unless you really have to.

Also, wait until the last minute and check for non-runners. They really are the pits for the placepot bettor. While you're waiting, check the market moves, and see if it impacts on your opinions in any way. If you're at the track, have a look at the runners for the first. Don't be afraid to change your mind. In my opinion, it is superstition, and only remembering the missed winners, that puts bettors off flexibility.

Certain types of races:
Whilst I can't go through selection in great detail, there are a few key types of races which I approach differently. What follows is more in the nature of the occassional tip than anything deeply earth-shattering.

Level stakes (non-novice):
I don't have any specific statistics in mind (though they're out there) but level stakes races run most closely to form, and have the best records for favourites (remember, we're concerned with strike-rate (or place rate) not level-stakes profit, as it is the betting order not the price that affects the bet). Once horses have reasonably exposed form and are running off level weights, you should be looking to find your bankers here wherever possible.

One of the most confusing conversations I've ever had with a normally smart racing friend (let's name names: with Jack) was when he asked me, after the race, why I'd singled Frankel in the 2,000 Guineas. Well, because of what he just did, and because there was no other possible banker on the card. I did the same with Big Bucks in the World Hurdle. There's a sense that big races are more competitive because they contain household names, and because we think about the chances of the outsiders. They aren't more competitive.

Novices and juveniles:
The key here is reliability. Jumps racing, in particular, is a nightmare for the placepot - one stumble from a banker and you're out. So be very careful putting a horse forward as a banker unless you really know it can jump (and if it is a novice chaser, that means jumping fences; hurdle technique counts for nothing).

On the flat, I have no problem singling horses who have run before in juvenile/3yo maiden races, but I wouldn't single a debutant. So much can go wrong, and there are lots of talking horses in the flat game. Remember, too, that experience counts for a great deal - places are often "nicked" by experienced horses finishing ahead of first-timers who are "staying on after the penny dropped" at the end. This is a major difference from jackpot selections, where I'd like to have almost all debutants in my list, together with the best form horses.

Handicaps:
In my opinion, handicaps are the place to be opposing favourites, simply because they are typically the races which have the greatest competition, and thus the smallest differences between the chances of horses at different positions in the betting order. You shouldn't oppose favourites on principle, but looking for horses who might unplace them is a good idea.

Remember, too, that the money in placepots is (or appears to be) placed by less sophisticated punters than in win markets. So think about avoiding popular horses, and taking advantage of subtler indicators of chances. In particular, it seems to me that going preferences are under-regarded in placepot markets, that the draw is not given enough attention, and that avoiding "name" jockeys and trainers can often lead to a contrary position - without needing to back rank outsiders.

In truly competitive handicaps, it is enough to simply have one line survive. Don't be a hero - four selections on four of the front eight in the Lincoln is probably about right. The favourite and two 40/1 shots probably isn't.

----

So that's it. In essence, that's how I play the placepot. If time permits, I'll return with smaller posts, looking at how I will be placing my bets on the meetings I like tomorrow (Ayr, and possibly Beverley, I haven't done the detailed work yet). If not, I'll run a blog at some later date.

Catching up on HTF

2011-05-24T18:38:00.000+01:00

This is a quick catch-up post, as I've been away from blogging for a while with work busy, and a holiday. I've been tweeting a few recommended bets, hopefully you've been able to keep up with the horses to follow and the paddock pick tweets; it hasn't been going too badly. Thanks to those of you who've written/tweeted with comments. Always appreciated.

A quick note on the systems: Andrew Balding's yard appears to have levelled off - it may be that we were simply seeing his whole string come into form, but I'm no longer pursuing that angle. Most of Johnston's 3yo handicappers have already begun their season, so that angle, too, is done. You should look out for more as I spot them.

An update on horses to follow who have run since my last blog:
Clowance was a non-runner in the Yorkshire Cup, as the ground was too fast. No bet anyway. Let's hope she finds soft ground soon.

Flood Plain had a fair run of the race at York and was far from good enough. She's dropped from the list. A 2pt loss.

Miss Diagnosis was last in her run at Newbury, having had the worst of the ground out wide and been far too keen. These excuses may not be enough to explain her performance, but she's given one last chance to redeem herself and stays on the list. Another 2pt loss.

Red Aggressor was a welcome profit for the blog, finishing second in what appears a decent race at Leicester, at 40/1. The 0.5pt e/w bet returns 5.5pts. He should win a maiden, and let's hope the price isn't too short. He might just improve for a furlong more in midsummer, too.

Solar Sky was a very short priced winner, at 2/13, in his maiden, adding 1.15 (approx!) to the point tally for a 1pt bet. It wasn't a hugely impressive performance but he'll enjoy a quicker pace and could easily improve. He might yet go to the King Edward, although that's a likely target for World Domination too after he disappointed at York (though I, for one, am not taking the Dante form literally as a 1m4f trial; it was far too slow - and I'd rather run WD or Seville than Carlton House at Epsom).

Emiyna was included for 1pt, although she shouldn't have been. I did say that 10f would be her game, but I thought she was worthy of inclusion in the Irish 1,000. 9/2 was skinny enough and I wasn't surprised to see her in the middle of the pack. My own view (and I exchanged tweets with James Willoughby (@prof_hindsight) who seemed to agree) is that she's an American-style closer, and would be best over 10f over there - would love to see her in the Arlington Million or a BC race, but can't imagine it'll happen. I still hope she'll go for the Pretty Polly at the Curragh at the end of June.

Current betting position on HTF: -7.7pts.

There are a couple of horses to add to the list.
Aquilla (2yo filly, Cecil)
This is the first horse I'm taking from Steve Taplin's book. She's out of Dance Troupe and as such is a half-sister to Puncher Clynch, winner of last year's Ballysax, and is by Teofilo. His progeny, obviously, are yet to do much on the racecourse but everything I hear from sales and bloodstock agents is incredibly positive. Henry Cecil knows what he's doing and won't rush this filly, but he obviously likes her (she was raved about in the RP stable tour). She has entries in all the Tatt's sales races but nothing iminent.

Back next time out.

Ocean Rosie (4yo filly, Carroll)
You knew I wouldn't be able to spend a day at Yarmouth and not find something for the notebook, right? This daughter of One Cool Cat looked very well in the paddock, but appeared a doubtful stayer over 10f, as many of these did. A long-standing maiden, she's falling to an attractive mark in the handicap but simply didn't stay the trip, racing prominently to 3f out and then fading badly to finish 5th of 9 (one runner refused to race). She's entered for a seller at Brighton on Friday which will again, I suspect, be too far, but has every chance back over 1m or shorter of finally breaking her duck.

Back next time out over 1m or shorter.

Right to Dream (2yo colt, Meehan)
Many of Brian Meehan's are coming on for a run this season, and few will come on further than this attractive son of Oasis Dream, who ran very green before staying on for third at Goodwood on Saturday. The video shows a real turn of foot, and receives positive comments in the Taplin book from the trainer - he's also a pick of bloodstock ace Will McKeever. He should win a maiden and could go on from there.

Back next time out.

Horse to follow - no bet

2011-05-11T18:02:00.000+01:00

Just a quick note, as I'm rushing out this evening. Crystal Gal goes in the Hambleton (1m, listed handicap) at 3.00 tomorrow. Not a recommended bet, as I think her handicap mark is too high and the trip too short - recommended betting in weight for age contests over 10f+. Still at 25/1 she is a biggish price and I might have a small bet myself, and will certainly watch her with interest.

Catching up on Monday's system bets, the first Balding horse (Set the Trend) was a non-runner (Side Glance, from the Balding yard, took the race nicely at odds-on but was making his third run). The second, Moment of Time, pushed the odds-on chance for a while, and finished second. Ultimately, well beaten and the price was probably not much longer than it should have been. So no great value win, but not a big disappointment.

On Seve

2011-05-09T12:41:00.000+01:00

I didn't plan to write anything about Seve's sad passing. I barely remember him as a golfer, and I know nothing about the sport. Still, I've been moved by what I've read and share the sense of loss that has been eloquently expressed so widely.

One quote, though, I loved. It summed up what the man seems to have stood for, and captures a lot of what I love about sport - and in particular, about horse racing. It's from this discussion:

The moment of victory is nice, but it is not the moment I live for. I am happiest when I am in the hunt for the title — that is the moment of total excitement for me. I am like the gambler. The great moment is not when the roulette wheel has finished spinning, and the gambler knows whether he was won or lost. The great moment comes while the wheel is spinning, and he does not yet know the outcome. That is what I live for.

RIP Seve. Let's hope that we all find something of that pleasure in what we do in life.

Yuck

2011-05-08T21:51:00.001+01:00

Three more losers, and an odds-on win, really didn't get it done for the horses to follow list. On top of which, Mark Johnston's handicapper was overfaced in a tough race. Let's do the grisly details with the horses to follow.

Bourne
Won at 4/6 - 1.66 pts returned.
The RP analysis summed this up nicely - he was in command, he won this nicely, won't go up too far in the handicap and stays on people's Ebor shortlists. Mine included. A relief.

Eucharist
6th of 8, 2 pt loss
This was a hugely disappointing performance, a step back on her performance in the Fred Darling. It seemed that she simply didn't have the speed to stay with the others as they entered the straight and Hughes was at work on her more than 2f from home. With the favourite turned over, this looked an ordinary race. She's dropped from the list.

Laashack
2nd of 5, 2 pt loss
Not terribly disheartened by this performance, beaten only a length by the favourite. He's done what was expected of him. Obviously, I'd have preferred him to improve on it but there are some excuses that can be made (may not have enjoyed the track, or the going). I'll leave him on the list and give him a final chance to progress.

Verdant
3rd of 5, 2 pt loss
This is the most frustrating loss of the seven (good lord!) suffered so far. I'm unable to explain why this horse put in such an ordinary performance, and he's reluctantly removed from the list. I'd like to say I won't back him again, but I have a horrible feeling I'll be suckered in again next time.

So that's it. A frustrating restart for the horses to follow list, but I'll keep at it, and hope for better things to come.

Tomorrow doesn't see any from the list running, but two of Andrew Balding's are making second appearances of the season at Windsor:
Set the Trend goes in the 6.40 and has each-way chances at 12/1. This looks a fair field for a listed event, but there isn't anything outstanding. The likeliest winner is the other Balding inmate, Side Glance (who was himself a second time out winner).
Moment of Time is the second, and goes in the maiden auction at 7.40 (raced for a pitiful £2.5k, making it a difficult race to even contemplate betting on). The forecast 9/2 looks a reasonable price in what should be an open affair. If my theory about improvement in the Balding yard is true, this filly should be going close.

Looking forward to a great week's racing at York and the last of the Derby/Oaks trials. I'll update with any system or horse to follow bets as we go along. Come Saturday, I'll be crossing everything that Lithuania can win Eurovision for me (at 200/1)! Stay lucky...

Trainer pick

2011-05-07T12:04:00.000+01:00

A quick heads-up. Sky Falcon goes for Mark Johnston in the 4.05 at Nottingham today. This looks a competitive race and the selection is the outsider of five. However, the favourite is from the misfiring bin Suroor yard and I do beleive strongly in this "system". He's available at 7/1 and I'll be on board.

Four more runners

2011-05-07T12:01:00.001+01:00

Still feeling awful, and yesterday's runners definitely didn't help. Three disappointing performances, and I'm now seven points down before I've registered a win. Still, I'm hoping for two recoveries today - from my bug, and from my performance on the horses to follow front. On the latter, four horses go today and I am still optimistic that all have chances. First, though, a review of where it went wrong yesterday:

Coeus
Finished fourth of seven, having had a chance a furlong from home. Hayley Turner (a jockey I love to see on my horses) was, I think, unable to cope with his keeness, and the pace didn't suit. There must be a question of whether he stays 7f but I think if he settled better off a faster pace, he would. He remains on the list but won't be backed next time out, until we see if he's better than this.
2 pt loss.

Laahooj
Finished fourth of six, like Coeus having had a chance a furlong out. I do think, in this case, we saw a horse who didn't stay the trip, and I may have been optimistic in thinking he'd improve for the step up in trip. This was also a step up in class and it didn't look like he enjoyed it. I'm removing him from the list but will keep an eye on him with the possibility of returning him onto this list should he do better next time.
2 pt loss.

To The Spring
Finished a well-beated sixth of eleven, tired 2f out and hanging badly at the end. This was by far the most disappointing performance of the week. With the favourite, and the only apparent danger, Misrepresent, also underperforming, it is hard to say that this was a good race (even with a good gallop, the time was comparable to or slower than other races on the card) but she was well beaten and didn't even look particularly genuine. She's struck from the list.
2 pt loss.

Current position: 4 bets, -7 points.

Eucharist - Lingfield, 2.10
I'm happy to see this beautiful filly turned out again soon after her Newbury run, but disappointed I'm not well enough to watch her in the flesh. Eight run and this looks tough, with the impressive Flambeau odds-on to follow up on her bloodless Leicester win in a listed contest. The selection is available at 10/1 and I'm backing her each-way, confident in a place and hoping she can upset the favourite. It's too complicated to include in the system, but I'm also having a little bit on a reverse forecast with Eucharist and Flambeau.
1 pt e/w at 10/1

Verdant - Ascot 2.20
Six go to post, of whom three look realistic contenders. I'm happy to back Verdant, as the odds-on shot Alainnmar is back after a year off with a fracture. He's a talented horse but it is hard to know what fitness and ability he'll show. The third horse, Shamali, loves Ascot and is fresh, but is giving away weight and isn't as good as Verdant on RPR, OR or TS. I loved watching Verdant run last time and I hope he's doing it again, off the front, in this race.
2 pt win at 5/2

Laashak - Lingfield, 4.20
This is a tough-looking 1m2f maiden and the selection will be up against Audacious, rated 86 for his juvenile efforts and making his seasonal debut. A Stoute inmate and Motivator son, you'd certainly expect him to be better this season and in truth, I wouldn't normally oppose. Still, I do think a lot of my horse, who has the benefit of a run this season and 6/4 isn't a bad price in what looks like a match race.
2 pt win at 6/4

Bourne, Haydock, 5.20
Again, this is a bet I wouldn't be looking to make were it not for the pleasure of following one of my selections. This is a eight-horse handicap (Lord Raglan is a non-runner) and the selection is just 4/6. In truth, he does look a class apart from these, but funny things happen in racing and I'm not convinced he's an odds-on shot. Azimuth (value at 12s) is one I'd particularly fear. I'm going to put my money where my mouth is, but the bet is reduced as the value simply isn't there.
1 pt win at 4/6

7 points staked.

Three runners today

2011-05-06T06:09:00.000+01:00

Writing this shivering at 5.30 in the morning, I'm feeling truly dreadful and will, for the first time in three years, be missing a day off work. I'll also be missing Lingfield tomorrow, which is a pain. Anyway, the horses don't stop running just because we're not well enough to watch them, so here's a quick update ahead of today's races.

Slumber
Finished 3rd behind two good horses (Treasure Beach and Nathaniel) in the Chester Vase yesterday. I haven't been well enough to find a video replay but unless I see signs that he was truly unlucky, I think he'll be pulled from this list. He's seemingly run to form, but not found significant improvement.
1 pt loss.

Lajooj - Chester, 2.20
Stepped up in trip for the Group 3 Dee Stakes this afternoon. This is a tough race (Maqaraat, in particular, is a challenging opponent, though four of the six start at 5/1 or shorter) but I believe there's improvement in this horse and I'm hoping he'll take it.
2 pt win at 4/1.

To The Spring - Nottingham, 3.40
As discussed in previewing this horse, she's coming out of a hotter maiden (second has won since) and should improve for that run and experience, and for stepping up in trip here. Likely to start favourite.
2 pt win at SP (Odds not available)

Coeus - Ascot, 5.50
Stepping up to 7f, this progressive horse has a second run before his handicap mark goes up tomorrow. Acclamazing is on a five-timer for Marco Botti and provides the main opposition, but he's 22lbs higher than when winning his handicap debut three starts ago, and the run has to come to an end at some point.
2 pt win at 3/1.

As you can see, I'm more confident about all of these bets than I was about Slumber yesterday. Should be a couple more horses running tomorrow so will try and put something up, but it all depends on my health.

A couple of thoughts on trainer form

2011-05-05T16:57:00.002+01:00

I promised a few “how I bet” columns. I wanted to get a couple of trainer systems down quickly as they obviously have a limited shelf-life. For now, they appear to be working effectively. I hope they prove profitable.

Mark Johnston:

This idea started to germinate in my head when I was reading his stable tour in the Horses to Follow (link!) racing post book. He was bemoaning the lack of success of his juveniles last year, and was unable to provide any decent explanation for why this happened. I then noticed that a few Johnston 3yos (State Opera most obviously) on my first visits to flat races this season. They were often the most striking animals in their races – physically imposing specimens, superior athletes to the horses around them. Priced up on their form, they seemed to consistently run to a level corresponding with what we saw on the day, not what we read in the formbook.

The numbers:
Gathering stats on this has been tricky, as I only have Johnston’s full race record for 14 days. In that time, he’s had 3 qualifying horses, one second at 5/1 and one third at 14/1 (the third unplaced). Yesterday's qualifier, Colour Vision, was the 3rd at 14/1 at Chester, and I must apologise for my tweet this morning, which confused today's Satin Love (had already run and doesn't qualify) with yesterday's Colour Vision. More general figures (not for first time out horses) show us that Johnston is 21-95 for a 22% strike rate with his 3yos in handicaps, well above his typical 17%, although he does show a small level stakes loss. Impressively, in all races in January, his 3yos were 14-22 (64%) for a significant level stakes profit, again suggesting that the yard has recovered from whatever ailed it.

A couple of example horses – Kingscroft won his maiden and 3 out of 4 handicaps to start this season, and has been raised 16lbs in the handicap. Pretty Diamond has gone up 10lbs for a first and two seconds so far this season. Obviously, progressive 3yos are to be expected, but the success here goes beyond anecdote.

My theory:

For whatever reason, something was wrong with the Johnston juveniles last season, and they did not run to the standard that, physically, would be expected of them. This year they have come back into the yard and are making a mockery of the marks they’ve been granted.

The angle:

Back Johnston trained 3yos, making their seasonal debuts in handicaps. They may be expected to run better than their form and should be backed e/w if at a price bigger than 12/1, or to win at smaller prices.

Coming up - the following horses have entries and are qualified for this system:

Sky Falcon – 4.05 Nottingham, 7 May

Regal Kiss – 6.10 Windsor, 9 May

Andrew Balding:

This idea came from attending racecourses (often with a friend who seemed to like a number of Balding horses). His yard traditionally has a decent first time out strike rate (though don’t ask me to quote numbers, I couldn’t find them anywhere) and thus we’re often seeing RP comments along the lines of “goes well fresh”. Well, I’ve been watching these animals in the paddock. This year, they are not going well fresh. I assume this is weather-related (perhaps his animals aren’t using the gallops they usually use for pre-season work), but it doesn’t really matter. They need the run, badly, and are worth a second chance.

The numbers (manual calculations, so apologies for any errors):

Balding is 3-54 with first time starters (5.6%) with just one first time out winner among those making debuts after 1 April (that is, horses who weren’t active over the winter). Of horses making a second run, he is 3-18, and 2-8 since 1 April (at 100/30 and 6/1). He also had a 16/1 second among qualifying horses after 1 April, and two other placed horses.

My theory:

Balding horses are less fit than the betting world/market setters expect, and thus they assume that horses are running to form first time out, and underprice them on their reappearances.

The angle:

Back Balding trained horses second time out if they didn’t win their seasonal debut. They can be expected to come on much more for their first run than the market expects. Do not back Balding horses first time out.

Coming up - the following horses have entries and are qualified for this system:

Set the Trend – 6.40, Windsor, 9 May

Moment of Time – 7.40, Windsor, 9 May

Abergeldie – 4.40 Warwick, 10 May

Back to blogging

2011-05-04T16:53:00.001+01:00

So, I’m back. For now, at least. I don’t know how long this will last, or how well it will work. I’m not going to bother explaining all of the reasons I’ve not been blogging for so long, but the major ones are:

a) Divorce

b) Being too skint to visit racecourses (see (a))

c) Losing confidence in my critical faculties and concentration (see (a))

d) Trying some new things (in particular, placepot perming and pedigree stuff – and an increased interest in flat racing)

e) A new and, until recently, unmanageable job

f) Learning a lot by keeping my mouth shut and my eyes open (a dramatic change in character for me, as you’ll agree) from bloggers who know far more than me.

g) TIME (see (e), and, of course (a)).

Now, though, I’m back, armed with fresh enthusiasm for this wonderful sport, a new girlfriend who actually gives a crap about racing, and a bulging notebook of horses to follow coming out of the jumping festivals and the start of the season.

So, what will the new blog look like? Much like the old one, to be honest. I’m sticking with the features that I enjoyed most, and that were most popular – the ante-post portfolio, and the list of horses to follow. I’m also planning to do a bit more “link and respond” stuff to bloggers I like. I hope to do a few more book review type pieces, and will, of course, do course/race reports whenever I visit the track. I won’t bother with too many “today’s tips” type pieces, because better punters than me have saturated the market, but I might be arrogant enough to post some “how I punt” type pieces in quiet moments. I’ll also, of course, be doing requests.

Today, I've posted the contents of my notebook. You'll find it all below.

Horses to follow

2011-05-04T16:51:00.001+01:00

Two house-keeping notes. First, ignore the old horses to follow list. So much has happened since I last blogged that I’ll start again, and go through everything on my list. Also, I intend to be a bit more specific about how and when to bet on each of my selections in my write-ups. I’ll try to plug list horses on here before they run in appropriate places, but if I can’t, I’ll tweet about them (and, actually, my tweets appear on this page anyway, so… y’know… look at the whole screen). Second, I use gg.com for my alerts. Unless you have raceform interactive, it is the most reliable method I know of for not missing a start. Use it.

The full notebook would be the mother and father of all blog posts, so I’m going to split it up a bit, and present the horses in (hopefully) coherent groups. Most of what you’re looking at is based on horses I’ve seen in the flesh at the start of the flat season, though some jumps horses make an appearance. There’ll be more of them arriving with the autumn colours.

Links to other sections of this post:

2yo horses to follow

2011-05-04T16:47:00.001+01:00

Commissar – 2yo colt, Cole

Back in his next two starts and ante-post

Mixed emotions after the 2yo race on 1,000 Guineas day. This horse thrilled me, and I announced to the pre-parade crowd (who weren’t interested) that he was the horse I wanted to own. He’s a lovely, scopey, strong looking Soviet Star colt, and his pedigree suggests that he’ll get a mile in time. However, in a decent race I didn’t think he’d win, and kept my hand in my pocket. Well, he took this very comfortably and the cat is well and truly out of the bag. Still, I think there’s improvement to come as he matures and goes further, so I’ll be backing him even at the short prices I expect to see. If he was mine (oh, I wish he was!) I’d be looking at 6f next time, maybe in the Coventry or the Woodcote.

I’m also going to shop around for 2,000 Guineas prices. Early, I know, but if we can’t dream, why do we follow this sport?

Red Aggressor – 2yo colt, Brittain

Back in maiden next time out

I try to be positive in this blog, but I find it hard to find much to say in praise of Clive Brittain as a trainer. From a punting perspective, however, his insistence on running horses before they are fit does open up attractive betting propositions on second time out horses. Red Aggressor could just be one of these. He was unfit and overmatched in the maiden that Commissar took, but he is an appealing, forward Red Clubs son. I can’t see him needing more than 5f for some time, but in more modest company over the minimum trip, he is easily good enough to win a maiden next time.

Jumps horses to follow

2011-05-04T16:43:00.007+01:00

De La Bech – 4yo gelding, ?

Back in novice hurdles next season

There simply isn’t time for me to follow Irish racing, and there is so much jumps racing that, apart from the biggest races of all, I rely on watching ATR replays in the build-up to Cheltenham. The one exception, however, is the Fairyhouse Bumper that serves as the point-to-point championship. Covering 2m2f every Easter Monday, this is always a race for the notebook, and this year there is one outstanding candidate. Aged just four, De La Bech was totally unsuited by conditions (he’d won his previous start over 3m on heavy ground at Ballybunion) and facing more experienced and mature opposition, but finished an impressive third. Back over longer trips, and after a summer at grass, he’s one to follow in novice hurdles and, with luck, novice chases over the next couple of seasons. He was sold in the point-to-point sales soon after that race for €40,000 to Aiden Murphy. No news yet on where he’ll be trained next year.

Noble Prince – 7yo gelding, Nolan

Back selectively in graded races next season

I’m hardly breaking new ground by recommending a winner of a novice chase at Cheltenham, but I thought that this Montjeu gelding was hugely impressive. Given a confident ride by McCoy (does he give any other kind?) he was the only winner turning for home and actually took this comfortably. It is hard to know what trip will suit, and I’m in the minority who would aim him at the 2m chases (suddenly looking crowded in Ireland, with Big Zeb and Sizing Europe significantly better than anything trained in the UK) but however far he goes, I think he’s a good enough jumper to be supported as he makes the step up to join the big boys.

Captain Sunshine – 5yo gelding, Lavelle

Back in novice hurdles next season

I wasn’t particularly interested in the racing on March 5^th. My girlfriend was round and any thoughts I had about racing were focused on Cheltenham. Still, I glanced at the card for Doncaster, which included the valuable DBS bumper race (£35k to the winner). Emma Lavelle had a debutant in the field. She’s a smart woman, and she wouldn’t have sent her horsebox all that way for no reason. I had a nibble each-way at 40s, and sure enough, this scopey Oscar gelding stayed on nicely to take third, having been backed into 25s. The money was enough for a bottle of wine, but I’m hoping to pay for a few meals if this horse progresses as I’d hope for one of my favourite trainers. No idea how far he’ll stay, but I’ll be following him with interest.

Lively Baron – 6yo gelding, McCain

Back in novice chases over 2m4f+

I spent two very happy days in t’north last autumn, and visited Carlisle and Hexham for the first time. Didn’t see much which appealed but this Presenting gelding was a credit to the Hemmings silks as he sliced up in a bumper at Carlisle. I followed his novice hurdling season with interest (and with an unwise ante-post bet for the Neptune) but, in truth, he never shone as brightly as in his bumper. I almost left him off this list but in my view it is only his hurdling technique that let him down; he travelled well between hurdles and is obviously a chaser in waiting. Donald McCain is justly gaining a reputation as a wonderful handler of young chasers and I’m sure this one will be profitable to follow, and may even tempt me into another Cheltenham bet if he shows he’s handy at the bigger obstacles.

Older flat horses to follow

2011-05-04T16:43:00.006+01:00

Bourne – 5yo gelding, Cumani

Back next time out in handicap

This reliable sort looked to be on a winnable mark at Newbury for his seasonal debut (the 10f race on Fred Darling /Greenham day), and was backed down to 9/2. I wasn’t sure he was fit and I opposed him, but I think his fourth was impressive enough. Upped one pound, he’ll go off 83 next time and, fitter, should have a win in him.

Clowance – 6yo mare, Charlton

Back in Group races over 12f+ on soft ground

I think Roger Charlton has finally learnt what this horse can and can’t do. She can’t win over less than a mile and a half. She can’t win unless the ground is softer than good. She can’t be trusted to stay healthy. Fortunately, given the injuries, she goes well fresh, and she’s a tremendously talented animal. Very glad she’s not in the breeding barn yet. I can see her travelling all over Europe looking for soft ground, and I’ll be on board whenever she gets her conditions.

Crystal Gal – 4yo filly, Wadham

Back next time out in Listed/Group company over 10f+

Rather a speculative addition to the list, this one. Lucy Wadham had a few good horses at the Guineas meeting (a pleasant surprise for this underrated trainer, who mostly houses jumps horses). This filly, who might, I suppose, be a hurdler next winter, was an eye-catching Galileo sort. She was on her toes a bit in the paddock, and not going far enough (the Dahlia is 9f, I’d rather see her over 12f, but she might have the speed for 10f) and finished a fairly pedestrian 8^th of 11. She’s capable of better, though, and I think she might pop up in a listed or group 3 somewhere fairly soon. Her handicap mark is too high and she’s not a world-beater, but she might come in at a price (unfashionable yard, ordinary form) if she’s placed correctly.

Modun – 4yo gelding, Stoute

Back next time out

This seems like a very lazy pick, and it won’t get you any fancy prices, but I have to include this horse on my list. He won the 10f handicap at Newbury in the manner of a very good horse. He represents the appealing Sadler’s Wells/King’s Best cross, and he’s an older horse with Sir Michael Stoute. His entry for the Irish St Ledger suggests they’ll be upping him in trip sooner or later, and I’d guess he might have one more run in handicap company (105 is stiff enough, but not unmanageable, something like the George V at Royal Ascot might be a target) before the inevitable step up into Group Class. Connections are savvy enough that I trust them to put him in the right race.

Perpetually – 5yo gelding, Johnston

Back next time out

This lightly raced gelding was making his first start for almost a year at Newmarket and looked badly in need of the run. He’s obviously had some problems but is beautifully built, nicely bred, and had a wonderfully athletic walk. He’s off 87 at the moment and might just drop (having finished 11^th of 12 last time) but I think he’ll end this year at a much higher rating. Prices should be fancy next time but he’s one to keep on the right side of.

Verdant – 4yo colt, Stoute

Back next time out

I made a complete hash of the John Porter, I admit it. I ended up backing three horses, none of which made the frame. The final horse I backed was Verdant, who went to post with such a loose, athletic stride, that I knew I’d be kicking myself for not backing him. He ran disappointingly, and I don’t know if he was unfit or outclassed, but I can’t get that image of him hacking to post out of my head. He’s a well-bred (Singspiel/Selkirk) older horse with Stoute, and he’s worth one more chance. Has an entry for a listed 12f race at Ascot on Saturday.

3yo colts and geldings to follow

2011-05-04T16:42:00.005+01:00

Coeus – 3yo gelding, Prescott

Back next two races in handicaps

This horse was fancied ahead of his ride on 2,000 Guineas day in the 6f handicap. He looked well but not perfect, although I’m not sure anything looked great for that race. He finished second, well behind the impressive Seal Rock (I didn’t have a bet on the race but he kept a placepot alive) and was staying on nicely at the end. He’s by Ishiguru out of an Arazi mare, and is relatively slight, leading me to conclude he might want further. Sir Mark has turned him out again quickly; he goes at Ascot on Friday, before his mark is raised from 87 to 89. I think he’ll do well off the higher mark and I’m going to give him two runs with my money aboard before I assess where he’s at. He might just be listed/group class, or he might end up toiling off a high handicap mark. We’ll see how he progresses.

Dream Ahead – 3yo colt, Simcock

Back in group races up to 7f

A man who knows things (he’s in the bloodstock industry) was ecstatic to find that Dream Ahead missed the Guineas – he’s convinced that a mile is too far for this horse. In my ignorant way, I agree. He’s a 6f horse who might get 7f on class. The sprinting division is, as ever, a muddle, but with Starspangledbanner and Equiano no longer on the scene, this horse might just dominate. His Middle Park win had him rated level with, or not far behind, Frankel in most 2yo rankings last season, and I think his early season set-back might just get us some value, and get him in the right races. Could be one for the Golden Jubilee, if Overdose doesn’t come over.

Galloping Minister – 3yo colt, Dascombe

Back next time out in 1m maiden

This horse caught the eye before the Wood Ditton, always an excellent race to follow. He finished well down in the field and obviously wasn’t fit beforehand. In truth, he was also outclassed. He had an entry at Warwick in a more ordinary maiden, but was a non-runner – though the 25/1 available warmed my heart. No entries at the moment, but if we see him again soon, I think a weaker 1m maiden could be his at a biggish price.

Hamlool – 3yo colt, Brittain

Back next time out over 1m

I don’t want to say too much, in case I look like a fool, but this has all the makings of a very nice bet. I saw Hamlool in the paddock before the listed 10f race on 2,000 Guineas day, and I liked him a lot; well built, nicely-balanced, muscular horse. He didn’t look like a 10f horse to me, though, and Brittain’s yard weren’t (and aren’t) firing. His form from the AW is good, 2^nd to Dubawi Gold (an eye-catcher himself before running second in the 2,000). He travelled nicely enough at Newmarket before going out like a light 2f from home and finishing at the back. I’d hope to get a decent price for him if they have the sense to drop him back over a mile (though, in addition to a St James’ entry, he’s in for the Dante and the 1m2f sales race on the July course).

Laajooj – 3yo colt, al Zarooni

Back next time out

This felt like easy money at Newbury, where he was the pick based on stable form and pedigree for a weak-looking maiden before we arrived. After a swift paddock inspection, I snapped up the last of the 4/1 and it was never really in doubt. He’s a lovely horse and scopey enough to stay much further than the mile he saw last time. He’s got entries in the Dee Stakes and the Derby Trial, and I’d expect to see him take up one or the other. The Eclipse and the King Edward are both on the agenda as major targets. My plan is to back him next time out and, hopefully, make a profit whilst forming a view on whether he’ll really stay 12f or settle at 10f. He may or may not impress enough to stay on the list.

Laashak – 3yo colt, Stoute

Back next time out over 10f+

This is beginning to seem like a familiar formula. This scopey American-bred (his grandsires are AP Indy and Storm Cat) impressed in the paddock ahead of the Wood Ditton. He wasn’t particularly fit and needs further than a mile. I’m going to back him next time out (which, with luck, will be in the 10f maiden at Lingfield on Saturday for which he’s entered, giving me another look at him in the paddock) and will then plan my approach with him for the rest of the season.

Midsummer Fair – 3yo colt, al Zarooni

Back next time out

If you’ve been paying attention, it’ll be no surprise to see this colt on the list. He’s part of the al Zarooni string, a trainer in great form and with great talent, and he won the Wood Ditton (pretty easily, actually). By Medaglia d’Oro out of an Affirmed mare, my sense is he’ll want further (which is backed up by entries and by a paddock inspection) than the 1m of the Wood Ditton, but I’m not sure what his optimal trip will be. I’m behaving like a football manager and taking it one race at a time, whilst also watching the Wood Ditton form. To coin a phrase, he could be anything.

Slumber – 3yo colt, Hills

Back next time out

Like Blue Bunting, this is a horse I’m kicking myself about. He was on my list for the season, having received a very positive write-up from his stable. Cacique horses tend not to do much as 2yos so I thought that he might present attractive betting opportunities. Still, I confess to assuming he was overmatched in the Classic Trial at Epsom (also, I spent the entire day in an eye-bleedingly dull meeting, which ruined my chances to get a paddock report) and not backing him. We may not see that kind of value again, but I’ll follow him when he next runs (probably in tomorrow’s Chester Vase) and, if he doesn’t bounce, assess him for the remainder of the year.

Solar Sky – 3yo colt, Cecil

Back next time out

Damn silly name for a race horse, Solar Sky. Still, he was very definitely the stable second string when he ran second to World Domination at Newbury, but he caught the eye. Smaller than World Domination, he’s a low-slung, athletic type, something a touch feline in his gait. He’ll improve for further and has a King Edward entry. I’d assume he’ll get a run (possibly with Queally on board) in a 10f maiden, to test his suitability for longer trips, and I’ll be on board, although I doubt the price will be great.

3yo fillies to follow

2011-05-04T16:41:00.002+01:00

Blue Bunting – 3yo filly, al Zarooni

Back in Group races at 10-12f

Now, this one stings a little bit. I had included her on the list based on a Godolphin stable (well, stables, I suppose) tour, which led me to go back and look at videos of her juvenile starts. I got a gg.com reminder before the 1,000 Guineas, and then saw her in the paddock. She wasn’t fit. She wasn’t a miler. She won, without me backing her. The price has collapsed for the Oaks, which is what I was looking at her for. Still, I can’t imagine we’ll see a better Oaks trial than she ran and I’m keen to keep on the right side of her. I’ll be at the Oaks and if she’s thinner, I’ll be backing her. She might be a 10f horse at her best, but I think 12f is better than 8f, at any rate.

Emiyna – 3yo filly, Oxx

Back in group races over 10-12f

A shame I didn’t post this blog last week. I liked the filly very much and backed her at the Curragh on Monday, taking the early 11/2. The trip was inadequate but she showed good speed to beat some fair group 3 sorts over 7f. Her prices for the Oaks are ridiculous now, and she’s probably not good enough (early indications suggest it’ll be a hot race). The entry I’d be taking up, if Mr Oxx ever wanted my opinion, is for the Irish Pretty Polly. 10f should be perfect for her. I’ll be selective in backing her this season but she’s a horse I think a lot of, and her trainer is very canny indeed

Eucharist – 3yo filly, Hannon

Back next two races in group/listed races over 7f

A pure paddock impression pick, this horse caught my eye ahead of the Fred Darling. She finished third and was probably carrying a bit of condition. I did have a couple of quid at 200/1 for the 1,000 Guineas, but connections have very sensibly stayed at 7f, which looks ideal. She’s got entries at Lingfield and Haydock this week, and I’ll be hoping to see her in one or the other. I think she’ll carry on the progression she showed in decent nurseries last season, but I’m ready to give up on her after a couple of runs if she comes up short.

Flood Plain – 3yo filly, Gosden

Back in group races over 1m

Another who impressed me in the paddock, Flood Plain ran a creditable 3^rd in a conditions race at Ascot on Sagaro day, when desperately needing the run. Gosden’s horses are coming into form now, and I can see her progressing enormously after that run (not only a seasonal debut, but only her fourth start)). If you ignore her run on the joke Santa Anita turf track, she boasts excellent juvenile form, and even that race shows how highly the yard think of her (throw out the result, by the way, she slipped badly and was clearly never happy). Given slightly softer ground (it was very firm indeed at Ascot) than she encountered last time, she could be very good. We’ll see if she takes up her Coronation entry or if Gosden finds a less daunting stepping stone for her next run.

Havant – 3yo filly, Stoute

Back selectively over 10f

Havant was yet another eye catcher at Newmarket. Bigger than most and nicely in her coat, I couldn’t resist a nibble, although I knew that a mile wouldn’t be far enough (it wasn’t for Blue Bunting either, remember). She finished a respectable sixth and will presumably be aimed at the Oaks. Like Emiyna, I don’t think she’s good enough, and I think she’ll want to come back to 10f over time, but I hold her in high regard and I’ll back her, I’m sure, at least once more this season.

Maqaasid – 3yo filly, Gosden

Back in group races over 6-7f

I had a little bit on this beautiful filly for the 1,000 Guineas (having been suitably impressed in the Nell Gwynn), and the place payment was more than generous. In truth, she didn’t stay the mile, and was coming back to the field in the last furlong. She’s got entries over 5f, 6f, and a mile, and it is the 6f entry (the Golden Jubilee) that I think will suit her best, though the quality of the field will obviously be high. I could see her taking high order among the sprinters this season.

Miss Diagnosis – 3yo filly, Beckett

Back next time out

Ralph Beckett is the trainer I’d love to send my horses to. You know, if I had any. Among his many gifts, he’s as shrewd as any trainer at knowing when he’s got a good one. So when I read a very positive write-up for this Medicean filly, I went back and looked at the vids of her two juvenile starts. She’d won her race off the front on bottomless ground at Nottingham before getting beaten by a late closer, and is unlucky to still be a maiden. If she’d had an entry for an Oaks trial, I might have backed her at 100s for the big day, but it is hard to see her doing it now (unless she goes to the Musidora as a twice-raced maiden, I suppose). Nevertheless, I’m sure she’ll pop up somewhere over at least 10f, and she’ll have my money on board when she does run.

To The Spring – 3yo filly, Haggas

Back in maiden next time out

Green enough on her debut at Newmarket on Craven Day, she still finished a good third. Like many of the horses on this list, though, she caught the eye because she was still carrying condition and will come on enormously for the run. By Medicean from a Pivotal mare, she’s a miler and looked like she might prefer a little give in the ground (debut was 7f on good to firm). Haggas has given her an entry at Nottingham for a maiden over an extended mile that, if she goes for it, should be well within her capabilities.

Cheltenham is podcasted!

2010-03-16T18:51:00.001Z

This is a very quick post, but just wanted to thank those of you who have been in touch. Yes, things have been a bit rubbish for a while, however, we appear to be back on the bridle now.

The Punters' Podcast is daily during Cheltenham, and that's the best way to follow my thoughts. I'm twittering fairly regularly, too. Do email me with any thoughts at any point, too.

Not sure when the blog will come back, or what it'll look like, but twitter is the easiest way to find out if there is something in the pipeline. Stay lucky.

Catching up

2009-11-30T11:35:00.001Z

Goodness me, but life really is a pain in the bum. I'd get so much more racing done if I didn't have to worry about things like eating, drinking and paying the mortgage. Normal excuses apply for the delay in this blog, etc, etc, etc. Let's get on with it.

Despite my absence for some considerable time, I have been following the racing and I think the season has got off to a rollicking good start. This blog is really just a catch-up on a few things I've wanted to bang on about for the last few weeks (since, approximately, the Breeder's Cup). Obviously, I won't cover everything, only things where (hopefully) my perspective differs from the norm. For day-to-day bets and thoughts, Twitter is still the best place to find me.

My horses to follow:
This Mr Cracker thing is quite depressing. Why I believed in a horse that had achieved nothing, based on the word of a yard that is (sadly, because Michael Hourigan seems like a genuinely lovely guy and a good trainer) heading downhill fast, I don't know. He's even halfway to being called Mr Ed, and I still backed him. Thrice. No more, though. He'll have to work his way back onto my list of horses to follow. Pulled up for a third time last start, this time before jumping the second hurdle. Monkey.

Also removed is Bakbencher, who will need to prove he can jump much better than that before I back him again. The rain has come a bit quick for Noble Alan to get back out on course. I can't imagine we'll see him again until March. No new horses to add, although there are a few possibles out there.

My trips to the races:
I've been twice, recently. Plumpton a couple of Mondays ago, and on Saturday to Newbury for the Hennessey, courtesy of a Racing Post competition. Two of us were treated like royalty, with the result that I ate and drank to excess and had less interest in the horses than usual. You don't need my insight to tell you that Denman and Big Bucks are brilliant. They are, though. So, I'll limit myself to a couple of observations. With Dunguib apparently locking up the Supreme Novices, the other one (that used to be the Ballymore) is likely to have a top field. Finian's Rainbow really did look the part in winning very impressively on Saturday. He's one I may have an ante-post flutter on for Cheltenham.

Also, I was more impressed than ever with Barber's Shop. He obviously enjoys Newbury (I watched him jump like a stag as a novice here in April 2008) and he was excellent on Saturday, despite not quite staying the trip on sticky ground. If connections calm their expectations and stick him in the Ryanair, he'll have every chance. He won't cope in a Gold Cup with Denman trying to get Kauto off the bridle. Whatafriend was also impressive and but for a tired leap at the last (Sam Thomas shouldn't have let him put an extra stride in) he could have got even closer. He strikes me as Nicholls' best young chaser, who'll be hitting a peak as D&KS begin to fade. 2011 or 2012 Gold Cup? Don't rule it out.

Next weekend I'm going to Sandown, the first time I've been to the Tingle Creek as stupid bloody accountancy exams have got in the way for the last three years. A shame that Master Minded won't be there, but I've got a bet on Twist Magic (who is a monkey, but adores the course, and is among the best on his day) that looks much better with the reduced field. Can't see Big Zeb's jumping, or Forpadydeplasterer's, standing up to the railway fences. There should be a proper review on here some time after the event.

What I've been up to:
Betting-wise, I'm continuing to make a small but steady profit on single bets. However, I've become increasingly interested in the pools (not football pools but placepots, jackpots and scoop6s). I've been re-reading Dave Nevison's diary (No Easy Money) as well as the Beyer books (particularly Beyer on Speed). It is interesting to find places where they agree, and I'm convinced that they're right - the way to make any kind of significant profit is to get occasional big wins through pool betting. So I'm running a long list of paper-based bets to try to figure out an approach to perms that I like, and to work out the sort of budget I'll need to go after this properly. I've hit the post twice on large jackpots, but I can't afford to chase them seriously without refinining my approach. Once my techniques develop, I'll put a proper post up explaining my thoughts. Until then, do get in touch if you have any good ideas.

Until next time...

Housekeeping, and lots of updates

2009-10-21T19:21:00.003+01:00

I’m afraid that life was so chaotic when I got back from Pardubice that I didn’t manage to get a podcast up before Champions Day at Newmarket. In fact, it was so chaotic that I didn’t even manage to meet up with Jack, even though we were both at Newmarket all day. I’m still not sure how that happened. Anyway, I hope that we’ll see a couple more podcasts for the flat season, one looking at the Breeders’ Cup, and one reviewing the whole season. Then we’ll be moving onto jumps podcasts, which may be a little less frequent, partly as life once again impinges on racing, partly because we only get 48 hour decs for the Grade 1 races, and it is difficult to get a ‘cast out with useful information if you start recording after work on Friday (with 24 hour decs). So that’s the plan going forward. The reduction in podcasts should mean an increase in blogs, and today sees an enormous string of updates. Obviously, I’d love it if you read it all, but if you’re looking for something specific, links to the various posts are below:

Velka Pardubicky review
Eyecatchers from Newmarket
Eyecatchers from Kempton
Update of horses to follow list
Bringing back the ante-post portfolio

Don’t forget that the easiest way to be notified of any new content is to sign up and follow me on twitter.

Ante-post portfolio

2009-10-21T19:20:00.000+01:00

This has been a popular gimmick in the past - me putting my mouth where my money is and sharing my ante-post bets. I'll update this from time to time, bringing in new bets, settling finished bets and giving confidence updates on the really long-term thoughts.

Ante-post bets outstanding at 21/10/09
Breeders Cup Classic - Summer Bird: Placed 21/10/09, £5 each way at 8/1 with Coral.
Arkle – Noble Alan. Placed 11/09//09, £10 each way at 33/1 with Totesport.
Triumph – Gilded Age. Placed 14/10/09, £5 each way at 33/1 with Paddy Power.Derby - Vale of York. Placed 21/10/09, £5 each way at 50/1 with Bet365.
Oaks - Cabaret. Placed 30/08/09, £10 win at 37 with Betfair.

Bets I'm thinking about striking in the next few days or weeks.
Cabaret for the 1,000 Guineas
Fencing Master for the 2,000 Guineas
Tocca Ferro for the Ballymore

As can be seen, my most confident bet is on Noble Alan, who I think is criminally overpriced. I'm actually tempted to go back in at that price, which is still available. I've spoken about each of this horses, and not much needs to be added. I should say that the reason I backed Summer Bird ante-post is that I expect Zenyatta to go in the Fillies and Mares race, which will cause his price to fall. I'm happy to oppose a short-priced Rip Van Winkle who has been on the go since the Guineas, has a long way to travel and may not enjoy tight turns and an all-weather surface.

Update of the horses to follow list

2009-10-21T18:53:00.001+01:00

A few new horses have been added to the list below (see reviews of Kempton and Newmarket for details), as well as some updates on those horses already on the list. A couple have been removed, too. As I was away, no bets have been placed since King’s Forest made his chasing debut.

Runners since the last update:
Cabaret ran in the Marcel Boussac on Arc day, and was virtually tailed off at the back of the field. She was originally slated to run in the Goffs Million, but was redirected to Longchamp after a minor training complication. She lost a shoe early in the race and was lame afterwards, and won’t be seen until next season. A real shame, but there are excuses and she’s a talented horse, she remains on this list.

Dorback ran in a listed event at York over 6f. He had everything to suit and finished in the middle of an ordinary field. He hasn’t improved on his promising debut run at Windsor and is dropped from the list.

King’s Forest again ran over 2m4f at Bangor, and again finished third. His jumping is still suspect and he is unable to challenge good horses at the end of his races. He’s dropped from the list.

Mr Cracker made his hurdling debut in a listed novice event over 2m4f (having been entered in a number of maidens at the five day stage). He was pulled up about half a mile from home when well out of contention, and the run must be seen as disappointing. Unsurprisingly for a pointer, he was big at his hurdles and looked like a chaser in waiting. However, connections are clearly hugely confident, given the ambitious scale of his debut, and I’m prepared to give him another chance. He remains on the list.

Finally, some good news, as Noble Alan ran out a comfortable winner ahead of Knockavilla at Hexham, in what was a competitive enough affair for an early season novice event. He was a little careful at his fences but jumped soundly, and showed he still has an impressive turn of foot in quickening away. He’s entered in a valuable novice event at Aintree on Saturday (Five Dream among the likely opposition), and connections appear to be sticking with their plan to race him a few times before dodging the worst of the winter ground. So far, so good for my big Arkle hope.

Below is the updated list in full.

Jumps Horses
Chasers
Trafford Lad
Massini's Maguire - out until Christmas

Novice Chasers
Outlaw Tom
Knockara Beau
Bakbenscher
Noble Alan
Venalmar

Novice Hurdlers
Mintiverdi
Double Pride
Tocca Ferro
Gilded Age
Mr Cracker
Balthazaar King - new addition
Highland legacy - new addition, if he goes hurdling

Flat Horses
2yos in 2009
Cabaret
No Hubris
Vale of York
Fencing Master - new addition
Silver King - new addition

3yos in 2009
Summer Bird
Crowded House
Ouqba - new addition

Review and eyecatchers from Kempton

2009-10-21T18:50:00.000+01:00

This will be a shorter review than the Newmarket one, as there were fewer races of interest and fewer good horses on display. This has always been a favourite early-season jumps meeting for me (especially this year, when I won’t make it up to Wetherby for the Charlie Hall) and I’m sad to see them devaluing the handicaps and ending up with a much poorer product as a result. However, I think the novice events were weakened more by the ground being too firm than by attitudes to the course or the meeting. I should point out that Roy Waterhouse has reviewed this meeting too, you can find his comments (insightful as ever) here. Worth pointing out that he and I, as ever, have very different views on some of the things we saw.

The first race was a juvenile hurdle, and it was dire. Mohanad improved on his jumps-debut 3rd at Fontwell to take this ahead of short-priced favourite Alazan and debutant Ashes Summer. The winner stays a trip and jumps well enough, but none of these look like they’ll make the plate in races of any significance.

Next up was a novice chase over 2m, won by Bergo on his chasing debut. I know that several of you out there are very sweet on his jumping campaign, and this was a pleasing start. He jumped well enough, in the main, without really giving the impression of being a natural. He quickened impressively at the end (though he was racing some pretty ordinary horses, if we’re honest) and he’ll stay further. Needs decent ground and is the sort who might pop up in a festival race at Aintree, or maybe in the Jewson. He didn’t strike me as being good enough to compete in what should be an ultra-competitive Arkle field, and is unlikely to stay the RSA trip. None of those behind him looked up to much.

Cootehill, winner of the summer hurdle, has been very cleverly campaigned after taking a while to get used to hurdling. He has his novice’s tag until June, and has already raked in £41,000+. He’s done this despite being, in my opinion, distinctly ordinary. Look for him to struggle when taking on better horses, either on novice terms as a multiple-winner, or off a stiffer handicap mark. He seems likely to be a typical Twiston-Davis summer horse (although beware always the Pigeon Island phenomenon – once in a while, he gets one to keep improving through a long campaign). On this day, he made me some good money as I didn’t like the chances of any of his opponents.

Australia Day is talented, no doubt, and is normally flamboyant or disastrous at his hurdles. It was disaster at the first here, as he fell. Although he behaved himself in the preliminaries, I don’t like jumps horses who have to be mounted on course and taken down early, and I’ve got my eye on this one as a monkey, who may pop up once or twice, but won’t ever have my money on board. Press the Button, meanwhile, looked like a flat horse ending a long summer (which he is) rather than a jumper getting geared up. He was very novicey at a couple of hurdles which lost him his chance, and I’d like to see him given a good break before he comes back.

It’s not that long ago that I was backing Red Maloney for the Supreme Novices’, and he turned up here to finish second to Katie’s Tutor in the fifth race. He’s a striking individual and has clearly benefitted from a summer at grass, but has everything to suit on this occasion and can have few excuses. His hurdling held up well until he tried to pick up speed and he blundered badly at the last which lost him the race. O’Regan could have kept him closer and was partially to blame, but horses need to jump well when tiring and going fast. He won’t be a graded-class hurdler until this improves. The winner (another summer hurdle winner to score on this card) ran to form and is now thoroughly exposed as a mid-140s hurdler. Connections will struggle to put him in a position to win too many more this year, but he’s admirably consistent and a nice hurdler.

After a disappointing day, I found a horse to follow in the sixth race. It wasn’t the most obvious place to look, being a 3 horse novice hurdle over 2m5f. However, Balthazaar King took this impressively, comfortably holding off a challenge from The Big Orse, who is a fair yardstick (looked well beforehand and ran to form, giving 7lbs to the winner; will be a grand chaser in time). He fell on his last run before a summer break, but has come back a new horse, jumping fluently and looking much stronger. As a Kings Theatre gelding it is no surprise that he’s improved as a five year old, he isn’t bred to be precocious. He’ll stay further than this in time and is a really likable prospect who should keep improving if his jumping stays sound.

Horse to follow:
Balthazaar King

Review and eyecatchers from Newmarket

2009-10-21T18:46:00.000+01:00

A good day at Newmarket, with six group races and the Cesarewitch, and plenty of quality horses on display. Ground was perfect, and there was no wind to speak of, or any obvious draw bias. This is form you can take at face value, with the proviso that many of the horses on display looked over the top and fairly wintery.

In race one, Arabian Gleam put in a good performance to battle out the win. He was fifth in the Lockinge in 2008 but looks a 7f specialist, and raced nicely off his weight. He’ll be a strong contender in all the major 7f races, but his group 2 penalty may be enough to stop him winning too many more as he isn’t a world beater.

Of more interest going forwards is Ouqba.
This horse caught my eye before the 2,000 Guineas (in which he flopped, finishing back in 11th) and has quietly enjoyed a strong season, winning a listed event and a group 3, and taking a good second here. Since the Guineas he’s been campaigned exclusively over 7f, but on pedigree he should get a mile. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him strengthen up a little over the winter (he’s got a frame that’ll carry a little more muscle) and he has the speed to take a role in the biggest mile races if he can get the distance. If not, he’ll be profitable to follow over 7f and I’m expecting good things from his 4yo season.

The second race was the Dewhurst, and I have to agree with all of those who have been down on the form. The winner, Beethoven, was very exposed, and whilst he clearly improved for the headgear, he isn’t world class. Xtension picked up place money for me, and I’ve been impressed by him all season, but I can’t see him as a Guineas contender, and I’m surprised anybody can. He may have peaked as a 2yo. Buzzword and Dick Turpin, 5th and 6th, didn’t do much for the form of the Grand Criterium (though arguably the winner did), whilst Silver Grecian (looking slightly wintery and perhaps better than this) and Chabal were disappointing.

I’m afraid I can’t offer anything original, as I’m with the majority in saying that the unexposed O’Brien horses (Fencing Master in 2nd and Steinbeck in 4th) are the two to take from the race. Steinbeck hasn’t run since an eye-catching early season performance (the form of which, as documented on earlier podcasts, has been shot to pieces since). He was the horse the yard kept pumping at the start of the season, and he did run well for an inexperienced horse. I can see why there is still interest in him for the classics. However, I think that there is just a touch, a dash, a smidgeon, of the Ballydoyle talking-horse syndrome here. Fencing Master was equally inexperienced and ran a better race (don’t buy this stuff about the rail being to Steinbeck’s disadvantage – he had every chance on a very fair course, and simply wasn’t good enough on the day). He also caught my eye in the paddock beforehand as a beautiful, strongly made horse. As a 10f horse on pedigree he looks to be ideally suited by the challenge of the Guineas. I’m quite sweet on him for next season.

I’m not sweet on anything coming out of the Champion Stakes, the third race and a bitterly disappointing one. I was delighted to see Twice Over win this for Henry Cecil, and in most years this would be the training performance of the season (this year, I’d put it third behind Clowance’s Irish St Ledger and Yeats’ Gold Cup). However, whilst he’s a good horse who deserves a group one, he is far from the best 10f horse in training, even after Sea The Stars retired. Fame and Glory clearly didn’t want to be at the course, looking very wintery and carrying a surprising amount of condition for a Ballydoyle horse. Meanwhile, Sariska and Pipedreamer finished very close to the pace, confirming my view that this was run too fast in the early stages, and that there is nothing of any quality to take from the race.

Fourth on the card was the Cesarewitch, in which Darley Sun eclipsed (ha!) the rest of the field, winning comfortably off a featherweight. He looked good beforehand, and it doesn’t take incredible insight to say that he’s one to watch in a wide-open stayer’s division next year. However, he’s quite small and may struggle with any cut in the ground or with a bigger weight. I want to see him win a “normal” stayer’s race before I start to support him. Mamlook ran a good race in second but is gripped by the handicapper over jumps and I wouldn’t expect him to win too many this winter (his last win was a pretty ordinary novice handicap hurdle at Ascot back in April 2008). In the paddock, my eye was caught by Highland Legacy, an inmate of the Bell yard who finished back in the middle of the pack. He’s seemingly in the grip of the handicapper but is an athletic, scopey sort who looks made for hurdling. His owners have never had a jumps horse, but if he changes code, he’s definitely one to keep your eye on (my thanks to Nassau Board for the info on him).

The Rockfel, race five, looked a poor race on paper, and unfortunately this proved to be the case, with Music Show winning under a great ride from Kieran Fallon. She isn’t a very good horse (an RPR of 110 doesn’t make a classic contender, and I think it flatters her), and I don’t think she beat any good horses, with one possible exception – Silver Rock. This is a slightly speculative pick, but she was impressive in the paddock and has a lot to like on pedigree, being bred as more of a stayer than most of those who beat her home. She showed her inexperience, racing far too keenly in the early stages. She shied away from the whip slightly about 2f out, and Jimmy Fortune didn’t ride her too hard on the way home. She could improve on this and may have just enough stamina for an Oaks tilt. Don’t be surprised if she turns up in one of the trials (Lingfield or York, presumably) and runs better than this off a big price.

Very little to say about the Pride Stakes, which was the sixth race of the day, and the fifth group class event. Ashalanda, the winner, was impressive enough, and clearly likes firmish ground, so I imagine we’ll see more of her next year. She looks like she’ll need to strengthen up to take high order once her weight allowance is removed. No idea about a campaign plan, but a race like the Hardwicke would seem ideal. Behind her, Crystal Capella was unlucky to lose this in the last strides and ran a game race, having seemingly returned without a bounce. I think she’ll keep finding a couple too good next season, however.

Akmal won the Jockey Club, the final race of the day, and is the only one to be taken from the race. Despite his win, he proved categorically that he doesn’t stay 16f, hanging badly and slowing down from what looked like an unassailable lead. Back over 14f, he’s got the talent to be among the best. If he was mine, I’d be aiming him at the Yorkshire Cup for an early season tilt at a Group 2.

Horses to follow:
Ouqba
Fencing Master
Silver Rock
Highland Legacy (if hurdling)

Velka Pardubicky

2009-10-21T18:42:00.000+01:00

Well, as many of you will know, I dragged my long-suffering wife to the “Czech Grand National”, a race I’ve seen on ATR every year forever, and have never managed to get to before. This year, we travelled by train and made stops in Paris, Berlin, Prague and Cologne, with Pardubice our most eastern destination. The review is simple: you should go. It is like no sporting event I’ve ever attended, and the whole experience, if baffling, was wonderful. Unlike British racing, tickets are affordable and entertainment is extensive – the whole thing felt as much like a village fete as like a race meeting. The crowd was young, local and having a great time.

For those who haven’t seen the course, the Velka is run over a cross country course that is part Aintree, part Punchestown banks course, part Czech countryside (including two ploughed fields, a wood, and a “road jump” which is two stone walls with a track between them). Most feared of all, of course, is the Taxis, a truly enormous jump. This year, Josef Vana won the event, for the 6th time as a trainer and 7th as a jockey. He’s an old man these days, and an oft-injured one, missing several ribs, several teeth, and most of a lung (I’m not making this up). He was aboard his least-fancied runner, and gave it a fantastic ride, conserving space at every turn, balancing his mount for each jump, and only hitting the front in the last couple of furlongs.

There were eight races on the card, and I don’t have a clue how to rate the form. To be honest, I think it’s very unlikely that we’ll see any of the horses racing in the UK (although the Brits had some fair horses taking part in the Velka itself). So what follows is some top tips on attending the Velka. If anyone wants to go, drop me an email with any specific questions:
1. Stay in Prague. It is about 70-90 minutes on the train from Prague to Pardubice, and the trains are frequent and cheap. Doing this means you get to stay in one of Europe’s most beautiful cities, rather than a fairly non-descript town dominated by a chemical plant.
2. Get there early. First race is at 11.30 (the Velka is the last race on the card) and the crowd arrives much earlier than that. If you want a seat in a grandstand, book that well in advance, too. They were all sold out before we arrived. However, the view from the grass is fine and everyone has access to the paddock.
3. Go on an empty stomach. The food and beer on course is very fairly priced and is excellent. I’d particularly recommend the doughnuts, roasted over coals and dipped in almonds and sugar, as well as the potato pancakes. But you can’t go wrong with anything.
4. Buy a racecard. They don’t translate everything in the card into English. But there is just enough that the card lets you know what’s going on. The commentary, of course, is in Czech, so without a card you’ll be very confused.
5. At the Tote booths, beware the 5% tax. We only had notes, and were caught out by this. They still have a betting tax, paid on the bet not the winnings, and you pay 105% of whatever stake you ask for. So scale your bet back accordingly. We needed a few words of Czech to get the bet down, but nothing too much. I only placed one bet, in the event.

Updating the horses to follow list

2009-09-30T09:47:00.000+01:00

Having gone through Mark Howard's book in full, and gone back over the formbook as a result of that perusal, I've already added Venalmar, as discussed. Today, however, I'm adding another new horse - Mr Cracker. Students of Irish point-to-point form are raving about his performances in that sphere, and he ran an excellent race in the Gigginstown bumper at Punchestown, leading the 4yos home in 5th overall. This is a race that throws up good long-term prospects (King's Forest was plucked from that race last year).

Mr Cracker has joined Michael Hourigan's string and will undoubtedly be aimed at fences in the long term. This season he goes novice hurdling, and he has two entries this week, in maiden hurdles at Sligo and Gowran Park. Given he won his point race over 2m4f on soft ground it is eye-opening that he's running over a bare 2m, this suggests he's got speed as well as stamina, and he's one to watch this year as well as with an eye to the future. I'll keep you updated on his declarations through twitter.

I'm also adding Vale of York. I know that the Royal Lodge isn't the strongest race, but I was very impressed with his attitude and his performance in defeat. I thought he was badly hampered (he would have been awarded the race under French rules, but must settle for the moral victory here, whilst the winning jockey gets five days off to spend his share of the winnings) and would look for him to do better next time. He is likely to strengthen up, and may improve should Dettori elect to ride him next time. I haven't heard where he'll be aimed, but the Dewhurst and the RP Trophy seem the obvious targets.

Finally, Cabaret was declared at the five day stage, as expected, for the Prix Marcel Boussac, where I confidently expect her to land one of the top juvenile group 1s of the season.

For clarity, the full list of horses to follow is given below. You'll need to find an early post for notes on the horses.

Jumps Horses
Chasers
Trafford Lad
Massini's Maguire - now out until Christmas

Novice Chasers
King's Forest
Outlaw Tom
Knockara Beau
Bakbenscher
Noble Alan
Venalmar - new addition

Novice Hurdlers
Mintiverdi
Double Pride
Tocca Ferro
Gilded Age
Mr Cracker - new addition, runs this week?

Flat Horses
2yos in 2009
Dorback
Cabaret - runs this weekend?
No Hubris
Vale of York - new addition
3yos in 2009
Summer Bird:
Crowded House

A few little updates

2009-09-26T13:43:00.000+01:00

First of all, I owe huge thanks to Dean, who has set up a new web forum, currently known as The Punters Post, although it is far prettier than the old one ever was. Has a nice chat room, too, and I hope to be using this site a fair bit for posting race previews and visiting the chat room. A forum is only as good as the contributors, though, so please support us in this. I've got the ball rolling with a preview of the juvenile hurdle at Market Rasen this afternoon.

Secondly, I should mention that, I was probably mad in tipping Noland in the NH preview podcast as a possible Ryanair contender, he is unlikely to take part this season. Betfair have withdrawn him from the betting. Likewise, my tip of Massini's Maguire for the Paddy Power was wrong, because he is unlikely to be seen before Christmas. I'll be having a look over the handicap marks and considering the Ryanair contenders, and will provide updated ideas when I have them.

I got my news on both Massini's Maguire and Noland from the best publication in racing, and I must push it on my readers again. Mark Howard (of Racing UK) produces One Jump Ahead every year. This year's has some interesting horses tipped up, and stable tours with lots of great yards (Donald McCain and Emma Lavelle added to the list this year) as well as interviews with Harry Findlay and Anthony Bromley, two of the most inflential men in the sport. You should buy it.

As I read through Mark's work, and watch some of the horses make their seasonal debut, watch for some of them to be added to the list of horses to follow. One who will be added immediately, though, is Venalmar. He's going novice chasing, having apparently recovered fully from the injury that has him off track last year. His novice hurdle form in 2007/08 was excellent, beating Trafford Lad to win a Group 1, before finishing second to Fiveforthree in the Ballymore. I'm looking forward to seeing him over fences and he's due to come out some time in the next few weeks.

Of Tweets and Twittering

2009-09-15T14:37:00.000+01:00

So I started twittering a few days ago. Early days, but I think this might work. I don’t want to be putting up a new blog for every little thought I have, and I don’t think that anyone wants to be checking this page every day for a new post. So twitter (a) directs people to the blog when I have something of substance to say, and (b) gives me a chance to post mini-thoughts in a place where people can hopefully find them fairly often. So I suggest you follow me, as it’ll keep you up to date on everything that is going on in my electronic world.
People warned me that Twitter was addictive. They were right. They told me I’d be wasting all my time online. They were wrong. I follow about 20-30 people (it is still going up, and occasionally down) across a range of my interests (yes, there are comedians and politicians and US sport journalists in there) but mostly, you’ll be unsurprised to learn, I use it to follow racing people. Johnny Murtagh’s on there. Ger Lyons posts regularly. There are two, though, who I really wanted to point you towards.

Firstly, Cornelius Lysaght is tweeting. He’s the BBC racing correspondent, he tweets a lot, including tips, and he has fewer than 40 followers. How has that happened? He’s also responsive to tweets directed to him. Secondly, Chris Bealby tweets. This also directed me to his blog, which is brilliant, quite frankly. I can’t believe I haven’t found it before. For those of us who are mere punters, but fascinated by the day-to-day business of running a training stable, this is as close as you can hope to come to an insider’s view.
Enjoy – and please, Tweet/respond with any good blogs or twitterers that I should be following and plugging!

The latest Horses to Follow list

2009-09-11T12:39:00.000+01:00

This list has been through a few incarnations now, and several good horses who I got on early have been taken off it, either because I think they’ve had their best year (Radiohead, Copper Bleu) or because they’ve been so good that I don’t think I’ll see the value I’ve seen in the past (Punchestowns, Somersby). Unfortunately, there are also a lot who simply didn’t meet the standard I expected (Enticement, Confront), didn’t see a racecourse (Touch of Irish, Zero) or were campaigned by Jim Bolger (Cuis Ghaire). But I won’t dwell on horses removed. This is a list that looks forward, and I make no apologies for pretty ruthless cuts… this list needs to be regularly updated if it is to maintain it’s profitability.

As to betting, I’ve maintained a good level stakes profit from this list, but I’ll be betting more selectively this year. I’ll use Twitter to update on all the runners from this list, and give price advice and bet/don’t bet advice. I’ll maintain a record of my bets placed using a 1pt/2pt system.

I’d expect to be adding to this list consistently over the next few months as the middle-distance two year olds start running meaningful races, and we see the early season performances over jumps. Autumn is the best time of year to see stars in both codes, so watch this space!

Jumps Horses
Chasers
Trafford Lad: Has been my favourite horse in training for some time now, and I still have the payout slip from his place in the Ballymore of 2007. Even his disappointing third place in the Moriarty Chase last year seems impressive now, as he scoped dirty and still finished within five lengths of the future winners of both the Arkle and the RSA Chase. He missed Cheltenham and disappointed at Punchestown, but I’m not giving up. This could be a difficult season for wins, but he’s ultra-consistent and as tough as they come. I’m expecting each way profits pretty regularly. Likely to be aimed at top graded chases over 2m4f-3m.

Massini's Maguire: I picked him out as one to follow after his impressive performances behind Herecomesthetruth at Sandown, but noted he needed to improve his jumping. In finishing third to Cooldine in the RSA Chase, he did just that, however, mistakes returned when he ran 5th in the Mildmay at Aintree. I’m hoping that Phillip Hobbs has straightened out his jumping over the summer and he remains my favoured horse for the Paddy Power. But he’ll be yanked if I see mistakes in jumping. Will be aimed at top handicaps and graded races over 2m4f.

Novice Chasers
King's Forest: Selected as a likely chaser based on his run in the Gigginstown bumper at the end of the 2007/08 season, he ran better than I expected through his novice hurdle season, despite jumping big at many hurdles and making mistakes. His win at Kempton was followed by an unseating at Cheltenham on his last ride. Goes chasing for the first time at Bangor this afternoon in a hot little race, but could be a real star for the emerging Doyle/Lavelle team. Again, I’ll be quick to pull the plug if I see weaknesses in his jumping. Will be aimed at novice chases, probably over 3m.
Outlaw Tom: Impressed me hugely (and made me a big profit) when I saw him at Warwick in a 3m1f novice hurdle, where he stayed on up the hill to beat Kilbeggan Blade by 8 lenghts, eased up (at 16/1!). This Hales inmate has decent winning Irish point form and the stamp of a serious chaser. I expect to see him competing in novice chases over 3m or further.
Knockara Beau: You could pick any one of a number of horses from the Ballymore Properties to follow as a Chaser , but I've gone for this 6yo. His success as a novice hurdler was anticipated, on the basis of his bumper form (2nd at the Scottish National, and two wins, the latter under a penalty at Aintree). He’s a huge horse who’ll want three miles, but saw his chase debut before the summer break, winning a poor race at Cartmel over 2m4f. Made errors at some fences but took others nicely, I’d expect him to come on for that run. Will be aimed at novice chases over 2m4f-3m+.
Bakbenscher: There are a few on this list who I’ve been waiting to see over chase fences, and this is another. Enjoyed a successful but low-key season over hurdles last year, highlighted by a second in the National Hunt EBF final at Sandown, where he was unlucky to get caught in traffic when making his run, and to come up against Big-eared Fran (beaten 3L on level weights). That run confirmed my view that he’s better over further than 2m, but he seems versatile as to trip. Will be novice chasing over 2-3m.
Noble Alan: I’ve been following this 6yo by King's Theatre since he took a Newcastle bumper back in November 2007, and he enjoyed a fantastic campaign against more experienced hurdlers in 2008/09 (having lost his novice status over hurdles in 2007/08. The one black spot last year was a poor run under a big weight in the Ladbroke hurdle, but he won two good races early and finished second in the Jewson Final at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting. He finished his campaign with an unexpected win in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. I expect Nicky Richards to send him novice chasing over the minimum trip this season.

Novice HurdlersMintiverdi: Noel Chance knows what he's doing with bumper horses, but this one was particularly impressive in winning on debut at Kempton (his only run to date). The field he beat was ordinary, but he quickened away impressively and didn’t look like he’d had a run when I saw him in the winner’s enclosure immediately afterwards. This five year old could prove to be yet another star for sire of the moment Kayf Tara when he starts novice hurdling this season season. I’d expect him to run in novice hurdles over 2m – 2m4f.
Double Pride: It’s unusual to see a Trevor Hemmings horse excelling in bumpers, and this son of Double Trigger looks a typical late-developing staying chaser. But he won his debut bumper very impressively at Warwick, and finished third on unfavourably good ground, giving weight, at Chepstow. Alan King trains, which is good news for a novice hurdle campaign, that I’d expect to see waged over 2m4f+.
Tocca Ferro: Another Emma Lavelle horse (she's a trainer I rate much more highly than the market seems to) and another winner of a debut bumper, this time in soft ground at Wincanton. He was well-backed into 3/1 second favourite and this confidence was well founded. The gallop was unusally quick, and he stayed on well, despite looking green, to win by a length. He will improve for a summer at grass and for the experience. Likely to run in novice hurdles, and I have no idea what trip will suit (though on his bumper race he shaped like he’d see out 2m4f).
Gilded Age: A second Alan King novice hurdler, this is more of a risk. I saw this horse run on the flat at Epsom, finishing 5th of 9 after a front-running performance over 1m4f. He impressed me in the paddock and travelled like a National Hunt horse. He’s well bred (by Cape Cross out of a Singspiel mare) and was purchased form the Johnstone yard for an eye-popping 40,000Gns. Rated around 75 on the flat, I’m expecting far better over hurdles, although his first run will be insightful (let’s hope he can hurdle fluently). He’s likely to be seen out fairly early in the season, and to be campaigned aggressively in juvenile hurdles.

Flat Horses
2yos in 2009
Dorback: A horse that was brought to my attention by Steve Taplin’s excellent book on two year olds, he won impressively enough in a Windsor maiden first time out. His run in a Nottingham conditions contest (last of five) was too bad to be true and I’m hoping to see a big improvement in the remainder of the season. Has entries in the Redcar sales race, as well as the Middle Park and the Mill Reef, so it seems that they’ll keep him over 6f for the remainder of this year. Should see out a bare mile as a 3yo.
Cabaret: No prizes for originality here, but you simply can’t fault her performances to date. As I said on the latest podcast, she’s clearly Ballydoyle’s best juvenile, and, as such, she’s worth following. Will be short priced in whichever race she goes for at the end of the month (most likely the Cheveley, though the Goffs races and the Meon Valley are other options), and must be expected to add another group win to her victory in the Group 3 Silver Flash at Leopardstown. Looks like a 10-12f horse, which means she’s got a good chance in the 1,000 Guineas (I’m on each-way) and a great chance in the Oaks (I’m on to win).
No Hubris: The juveniles at Ascot are always worth following, and Canford Cliff’s Coventry Stakes has thrown up some excellent horses. No Hubris finished 6th, having taken on the near-impossible task of staying with the winner from the off. He’s not been seen since but has entries for the Dewhurst and the Racing Post Trophy. If he returns in either of those, I’d be confident of a good performance. Likely to be a decent mile-10f horse as a 3yo in 2010.

3yos in 2009
Summer Bird: There won’t be many American horses in this list, but this one really does deserve a mention. He was inexperienced and ran a poor (and arguably unlucky) race to finish 6th in the Kentucky Derby. Next time out, he won the Belmont, then finished second to Rachel Alexandra, hardly a disgrace, before winning the Travers. He’s an excellent horse who isn’t getting the coverage he deserves. He’s also 8/1 for the Breeders Cup Classic – huge odds, particularly as Sea The Stars and Zenyatta are unlikely to oppose. Could be even better over 10f as a 4yo in 2010.
Crowded House: You need to watch a replay of the Epsom Derby to understand this selection. Finished a very unlucky sixth behind Sea The Stars, having been hampered in the run-in, and could certainly have got much closer. He’s a 10f horse and may return for the Champions Stakes at Newmarket, where I’d give him an excellent outsider’s chance. Failing that, he’ll make up into a good 4yo in 2010.

Predictions for 2009/10's biggest races

2009-09-11T12:38:00.000+01:00

I’ve cannibalised this from a list on my defunct website. Back in May, I gave some ludicrously early predictions on who will win each of the big 09/10 jumps races. I plan to update/revisit this as the season goes along, but this is the original list of thoughts.

Paddy Power: Massini's Maguire
Hennesey: What a Friend
Tingle Creek: Master Minded
King George: Kauto Star

Irish Hennesey: Cooldine
AIG Hurdle: Hurricane Fly
Champion Hurdle: Binocular
World Hurdle: Celestial Halo
Supreme Novices: Dunguib
Gold Cup: Denman
Ryanair: Noland
Queen Mum: Master Minded
Arkle: Noble Alan
RSA: Punchestowns

The pick that most worries me is Dubguib. I was unsure in May and I’m unsure now. He certainly isn’t ante-post value, and the record of bumper horses as novice hurdlers is dreadful. However, he was so utterly convincing that, unless he’s been destroyed by a tough first campaign, he could easily buck the trend. It’ll be interesting to see him over hurdles. If I was his owner, I’d give him a run in a maiden and a group hurdle early in the season, and if he jumps well, go for the Supreme. If he doesn’t, I’d put him away and try a flat campaign in 2010. Why not? There’s more money in the Coronation Cup than anything he could win over jumps, and he’s got a better chance than any jumps horse I can remember.

I still want to put Trafford Lad in for something, but I can’t find a big race I see him winning. If Noland isn’t right for the Ryanair, it’ll be wide open, with an aging Voy Por Ustedes and Tidal Bay the most likely duo. Trafford Lad could place, but it’s hard to see him winning. I think the Irish Hennesey will be too far and too soft for him. Could be a long and difficult second season for my favourite chaser.

The Blog Is Back!

2009-09-11T12:32:00.000+01:00

So, the blog returns after a nine month absence. I’m still struggling to work out the best way to share my thoughts with an audience, and hopefully get some meaningful feedback. I do like the blog idea, and it was something of a success a year or so ago. So, as we gear up for a new season over jumps, and the Championship races on the flat, it’s time to get this blogging again. There’ll be a few posts today to get the ball rolling and set up the long-term projects, and then we’ll slip back into a more regular schedule.

This isn’t though, the only way to get my thoughts. The best way is to subscribe to my podcast. It’s very informal, and 90% of it is conversations with other racing fans – mostly people I know from various forums, although I’m hoping to broaden the range of guest hosts I get on board. These will be approximately once a week, although that is subject to change. Mostly we preview upcoming races, although we also look back on recent news and big races, and try to give some ante-post advice. We’re always looking for feedback, and other guests, so get in touch with any thoughts. I’m hugely enjoying these podcasts and I hope you will too. You can find it by searching iTunes for The Punters Podcast, or by subscribing/listening here.

Also, I’ve finally cracked and joined twitter, as EdredonBrowny. If you have any faith (or passing interest) in my tips, I strongly suggest you follow me. I won’t be telling you what I had for dinner, even if it is really, really good. There will be four things, and four things only, on the twitter feed.
1) Updates on new podcasts and blogs. Just to get people’s attention, you understand. Quick links, brief description of content.
2) Quick reaction to racing news or to particularly impressive performances.
3) Updates on my betting thoughts, though only the highlights. This will be the only non-racing coverage, as golf/American football bets will be included in here. Mostly racing, though.
4) Updates on my horses to follow – entries, news, betting coverage. I’ve started, today, with the advice to back King’s Forest in the 2.30 at Bangor. The detailed list will be updated periodically on the blog, but the day-to-day advice will be through Twitter.
5) News from the races. That is, if I can figure out how to use Twitter on my phone. I’ll give paddock views and betting advice. Haven’t been able to do this before Twitter, and this is really exciting to me.

Moving On

2008-12-08T21:46:00.000Z

This is just a quick, final post, to thank all of you who have read this blog and commented on it. I'm not done with the internet, but I've moved on, and with a few friends I've set up www.thepunterspost.com - a blog-based forum. You're all more than welcome to come and check it out.

Ante-post portfolio - update

2008-11-30T15:22:00.000Z

The first ante-post bet of the year has come in, with Trafford Lad winning nicely in the Drinmore. The withdrawl of Aran Concerto shortened the odds, with my selection going off at 5/2, securing excellent value on the bet. I'm now £50 in profit, and the 25/1 on the same horse in the RSA is keeping me warm through the winter, now he's just 8/1 in places (though 14s are available with Ladbrokes).

Bets Spent: £10
Returns : £60
Profit/(loss): £50
Outstanding bets: £50

Current Bets outstanding:
RSA Chase: Trafford Lad – 25/1 - £5e/w – Ladbrokes – placed 11/11/08
Supreme Novices: Keki Buku – 25/1 - £5e/w – Bet365 – placed 15/11/08
Champion Hurdle: Jered – 12/1 - £5e/w – Ladbrokes – placed 16/11/08
1,000 Guineas: Cuis Ghaire – 14/1 - £5e/w – Bet365 – placed 19/06/08
Oaks: Enticement – 33/1 – £5e/w - Paddy Power – placed 17/11/08

Horses to Follow - update

2008-11-30T15:04:00.002Z

Three days, three runners, three teriffic wins!

On Friday, Copper Bleu came away from the field at 11/4, and took a fair maiden by 14L. Interesting to see him improve back over 2m, as I thought the longer distance would suit. Still, ground was testing and he may need 2m4f on a firmer surface before long. He's back on track and will presumably be upped in class next time out. The £4 bet secures returns of £15.

On Saturday, Charmaine Wood went of 1/2 favourite, against a very ordinary field, and had them well beaten some distance from the finish, winning as an odds-on sort should. Alan King says she needs a break, let's hope she's given a bigger challenge and a longer trip next time. The £4 bet secures returns of £6.

On Sunday, Trafford Lad added a grade 1 novice chase success to last year's novice hurdle grade one, winning the Drinmore at Fairyhouse. Tranquil Sea disappointed but there was a good challenge thrown down by Forpaddytheplasterer, but Trafford Lad jumped impeccably and stayed on stoutly, pulling away after the last. A shame that Aran Concerto wasn't there to be beaten too. Sheehy says he'll look at the three miler at Leopardstown's Christmas festival. He's already a consensus favourite for the RSA, at anywhere between 8/1 and 14/1. At ante-post odds of 5/1, the £4 bet secures returns of £24.

So the horses to follow list is looking better and better, with four wins from four races. The current situation is:
Bets spent: £8
Returns: £52
Profit/(loss): £44
Ante-post outstanding (Keki Buki in Supreme, Trafford Lad in the RSA): £4.

Horses to Follow

2008-11-27T20:18:00.000Z

Firstly, a clarification. I don't want the horses to follow list to end up skewed towards the horses running in the big races. So even where I've put £10 ante-post bets on, the y will be counted as maximum, 2pt bets in this system - in other words, £4 win or £2e/w bets.

Thus the horses to follow list contains two ante post bets on Trafford Lad, £4 win at 5/1 for the Drinmore(Sunday), and £2e/w at 25/1 for the RSA Chase. I've also got £2e/w on Keki Buku in the Supreme Novices, which I can't see coming in for me.

Tomorrow sees another runner, Copper Bleu in the 3.45 at Newbury. He's up against Riverside Theatre, who I saw win a bumper impressively at Kempton last year (on RP chase day) and who I like. But I will still put £4 on Copper Bleu winning, as everything should suit.

I won't have a chance to update my blog, but Charmaine Wood is entered for the 12.40 at Towcester on Saturday, another 2m hurdle at Towcester, this time with a penalty. I can't see why she isn't going further but I still believe and I think she'll take this one too. If she runs, £4 win bet.

Horses to Follow and Ante-post portfolio.

2008-11-27T07:25:00.000Z

This is technically an ante-post bet, but only by a few days. It counts in my book because I've bet early to secure value.. Trafford Lad runs on Sunday in the Drinmore Chase, over 2m4f at Fairyhouse.

Positives: 7/2 generally, he's 5/1 with Paddy Power, which explains why I've plunged into the market now - this is a great price for a horse I see going to the very top in novice chases. Ground (likely to be soft) will suit. Small field, with pace, will suit.

Negatives: I still think he wants further than 2m4f, and this is a very hot race. Although I don't rate the favourite, Aran Concerto, as a great horse, both Tranquil Sea and Forpaddytheplasterer are decent opponents.

I've placed £10 on him at 5/1 with Paddy Power.

Bets Spent: £0
Returns : £0
Profit/(loss): £0
Outstanding bets: £60

Current Bets outstanding:
RSA Chase: Trafford Lad – 25/1 - £5e/w – Ladbrokes – placed 11/11/08
Supreme Novices: Keki Buku – 25/1 - £5e/w – Bet365 – placed 15/11/08
Champion Hurdle: Jered – 12/1 - £5e/w – Ladbrokes – placed 16/11/08
1,000 Guineas: Cuis Ghaire – 14/1 - £5e/w – Bet365 – placed 19/06/08
Oaks: Enticement – 33/1 – £5e/w - Paddy Power – placed 17/11/08
Drinmore Chase - 5/1 - £10win - Paddy Power - placed 27/11/08

Horses to Follow

2008-11-26T12:49:00.000Z

Somersby won at 5/2.

Well, that was a nice start. Somersby ran tight to the inside, just off the leaders. The initial pace was very slow, but was ratcheted up fairly early, and lots of these came off the bridle down the back straight. Turning for home, Somersby came off the rail, bullied his way between two horses, and look a lead. He came off the last a step ahead and went on to win very impressively, about 2 1/2 lengths clear of a never-closer Clova Island, and he was still on his bridle.

His jumping was for the most part neat and tidy, but he made a novicey error two out, possibly because he was unbalanced going between horses. He was slightly keen but didn't pull too hard and looked like he could have gone further, or faster, or both.

Still seems a lovely sort and remains on my list, let's hope he repeats the dose upped in class.

Bets spent: £2
Returns: £7
Profit/(loss): £5

Horses to Follow

2008-11-26T12:25:00.000Z

Somersby runs in the 12:30 at Kempton today.

Negatives: Would rather he was going a little further. A big field, with a few decent sorts (I like Hobb's Clova Island, and the market rightly regards Henderson's Lord Ragnar as a big threat). Ground is firming up and is officially good, which may be a bit quick for Somersby.

Positives: Knight finally had a winner on Monday! Encouraging to see him turned out soon after Huntingdon. Kempton is a track that should suit. Elsworth is an ideal jockey for a big, well-drilled horse like this. He's had success in big fields before.

I'll stick to my guns and back him, but it is a £2 win only (1pt) stake.

Ante-post portfolio

2008-11-17T20:38:00.002Z

This is the diary of my ante-post portfolio. I’m not a big ante-post punter as I will only take the plunge if I think odds will shorten dramatically. A fiver each way or a tenner to win is the biggest stake I dare place. This autumn has seen more ante-post bets than I’ve placed in years, and it is my intention to record them all honestly, no matter how stupid it makes me look...

Bets Spent: £0
Returns : £0
Profit/(loss): £0
Outstanding bets: £50

Current Bets outstanding:
RSA Chase: Trafford Lad – 25/1 - £5e/w – Ladbrokes – placed 11/11/08
Supreme Novices: Keki Buku – 25/1 - £5e/w – Bet365 – placed 15/11/08
Champion Hurdle: Jered – 12/1 - £5e/w – Ladbrokes – placed 16/11/08
1,000 Guineas: Cuis Ghaire – 14/1 - £5e/w – Bet365 – placed 19/06/08
Oaks: Enticement – 33/1 – £5e/w - Paddy Power – placed 17/11/08

Trafford Lad – The only thing I was waiting for before I placed this bet was certainty that he could jump a fence. Once he took in a clear round, I took the odds, which have shortened since his last win. I’d want more than the place returns to sell this voucher now.

Keki Buku

Jered – The complete opposite of the bet of Keki Buku, this was strictly a value bet. I don’t read the form of the Maplewood Hurdle the way that others are – to me, on his reappearance and stepping up in class for the first time, little was expected of Jered. He ran well despite the ground not suiting. I expect him to improve all year and be at a much shorter price on the off for the festival.

Cuis Ghaire – I placed this bet before the Albany Stakes, certain she’d win and the price would crash. Sure enough, that happened, but she’s since run twice over 7f without success, and is back to 14s (or even 16s) in today’s market. There are excuses for her defeats, and I still think she’s a classy filly, but there is plenty that worries me about this bet now.

Enticement – I was happy to take long odds on this Montjeu filly fulfilling the promise of her maiden win in listed company over a mille at Newmarket, and delighted to see her win impressively. Everything in her pedigree says she’ll be better as a 3yo and that she’ll want further. Under Sir Michael’s tutelage, I expect her to carry the Queen’s colours to glory in the Oaks next year, and I was astonished to see Paddy Power quoting such generous odds. – This was a bit of a speculative bet, as he was running off top weight in a handicap at Cheltenham that afternoon. I rang and asked for a price, figuring it would collapse if he won. He didn’t. Such is the danger of ante-post betting, and I don’t think much of the chances for this bet.

Horses to Follow

2008-11-17T20:37:00.001Z

Welcome to my list of Horses to Follow! These will be almost exclusively NH horses, because I watch more and know (a little) more about the jumps than the flat, but I’ll include a few horses from the summer game as well. For the most part, I’ll aim to pick up the horses that really shine for me in the junior ranks of the sport, though there will be some well-handicapped good things in amongst them. As this progresses, I aim to make shorter posts on additions and subtractions from this list, together with comments on whether I’m backing them in advance of each run. When I do back horses, my usual stake is £1e/w or £2 win, which I’ll double if I’m particularly happy with a bet – fairly often with horses on this list, and rarely with others.

Bets spent: £0
Returns: £0
Profit/(loss): £0

I’m currently following:
Touch of Irish
Copper Bleu
Bakbenscher (not backing next time out)
Charmaine Wood
Metaphoric
Zero
Qanta de Thaix (not backing next time out)
Ballabriggss (not backing next time out)
Somersby
Punchestowns
Trafford Lad
King’s Forest

I posted a list of my ten bumper and novice hurdlers (and one chasing handicapper) from the 2007/08 season on another site last year, and will begin with some comments on that list, originally posted in April 2008 (original comments in italics).
Touch of Irish – 2nd in the Aintree festival bumper, which has traditionally thrown up lots of winners, he raced prominently and could probably do with a summer on the grass to strengthen up. A Kayf Tara son, chasing will be his game in time but I think he’ll have the capacity to win a fair few as a novice hurdler. Not seen out since last year, Mark Howard reports in One Jump Ahead that he has schooled well and will probably need further than two miles. A potential Ballymore Properties Horse, he remains on the list.

Copper Bleu – 5th in the same Aintree bumper, he’s well connected and an impeccably bred son of Pistolet Bleu and a Supreme Leader mare. Phillip Hobbs tends to do well young hurdlers and this one will presumably be aimed at the Supreme Novices’. Heads my list of horses to watch. Another that Mark Howard’s excellent book included in his forty to follow, it is reported that he was suffering from stomach ulcers when finishing fifth in a scorching Aintree listed bumper. Still at the top of my list of horses to follow, and once I know whether he’s being aimed at the Ballymore or the Supreme, I’ll be backing him ante-post with confidence.

Keki Buku – Another of Phillip Hobbs’ French-bred bumper horses, this one won at Uttoxeter and then shaped well before finishing 15th in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. He’s seemingly a soft ground horse, and he’s one I can see improving through next season. Nothing special, just a very likeable sort with top connections. Has had a lively start to the 2008/09, finishing second to Diamond Harry, who is clearly quite some horse, before winning at Uttoxeter. Disappointed slightly in finishing fifth carrying top weight at Cheltenham. However, conditions should have suited in a below par race that day, and his hurdling is yet to look entirely fluent. Whilst I’ll keep an eye on him (and I have backed him for the Supreme Novices’) I’m happy to remove him from this list.

Bakbenscher – Alan King always has a great string of Novice Hurdlers and on bumper form this Old Vic son will be amongst his best. Won twice, the second time giving a stone to a fancied Nicholls horse at Wincanton. Will probably want further than the minimum trip but one to watch whatever distance he takes on. Ran over the minimum trip at Stratford at the end of October, and narrowly prevailed in a weak field. He was unimpressive, taking a keen hold and making a serious error two from home. I’ll be taking a watching brief on his next run before deciding to remove him or not.

Charmaine Wood – The other Alan King novice hurdler I’ll be following, she was beaten by Big Eared Fran before winning a Boxing Day bumper at Huntingdon. Couldn’t get home in a valuable sales bumper at Newbury but flashed speed before fading. A summer to strengthen up and she’ll compete well in mare’s only novice events. I was at Towcester for her only run back this season, she hacked up over too short a trip first time out, and looks nailed on to win more mares’ races this season, probably over two and a half miles or so. I think she’ll go to Cheltenham, but whether for the Ballymore or the David Nicholson remains to be seen. She was hugely impressive in the flesh and I think the world of her.

La Vecchia Scuola – Every year we see the odd good horse come out of juvenile hurdles and improve of already high handicap marks. I think it’ll be this filly in 2008/09. Currently rated 131, she’s won twice and been placed another 3 times racing against geldings. She finished 9th in the mare’s race at the festival and an excellent 5th in the 3m novice hurdle against older geldings at Aintree. Against her own sex over 2m4f to 3m she’ll continue to improve. This prediction looks fantastic now! She completed a double in two days at the Ayr festival, and added two wins and a handful of places in valuable flat handicaps over a busy summer. However, I think the handicapper now has her in hand in both codes and I don’t think she has the class to compete in conditions races. Regretfully removed from the list.

Metaphoric – 100 rated on the flat, this Montjeu son won 2/5 starts as a novice hurdler, and finished fifth in the Fred Winter. He’s the type to improve as a five year old, being reasonably gangly when I saw him at Ascot. He also missed a proper break after campaigning on the flat through the summer of 2007. 124 is a flattering handicap mark and he’ll win some good races off that level. Another prediction I’m really delighted with, he took a weak juvenile hurdle at Market Rasen before three runs on the flat at Ascot, finishing third at the Royal meet, and winning a top handicap and a listed race. No idea what connections have planned, but his handicap mark looks ridiculous and I can see him being extremely profitable to follow.

Knockavilla – Unraced since winning a novice hurdle at Wetherby on Charlie Hall day, he also won a bumper at Carlisle when very green. By Saddler’s Hall out of a Be My Native mare, he’s got bags of speed and is compact and very well made. An exciting prospect, he could be very exciting as a six year old. Apparently jarred up in that novice event at Wetherby, I foresee a tough year for this likeable sort. He has lost his novice status and was given a tough handicap mark, on which he fell first time out this season. Pity, but he is removed from the list.

Zero - Won a good race at Ascot and is one of those horses who wins whenever he’s in the frame. 84 rated on the flat, he jumps well, and is off a decent mark. Emma Lavelle is a trainer I think a lot of and this one could run well as a six year old. I’ve nothing to add here – I’ve heard nothing and he hasn’t been seen since. We’ll leave him on.

Qanta de Thaix – Won on the flat in France, and had three runs in maiden hurdles for David Pipe, without winning. However, he shaped very well on his final start, beaten by the smart, and older, Woolcombe Folly. Still only four, he’s by Video Rock (Osana, Iron Man, etc) out of a Kadalko mare, and I can see a lot more to come from this one. Apparently I wasn’t the only one to like this horse, as he was a real mover in the market on reappearing in a handicap at the Open meeting at Cheltenham. Ran dreadfully and finished last. However, given the reported problems at Pipe’s yard, I’m leaving him on the watching brief list and will make my decisions after another run.

Ballabriggs – I keep a close eye on the McCain chasers, and I’ve already sung the praises of Mohayer, who is in Nassau’s reminder system. This son of Presenting is in a very similar mould. He’s been brought along slowly and is now a strong seven year old, who won a decent beginners’ chase at Bangor at the start of the month. He’s off a winnable mark and could run up a string of victories on the Northern circuits this year. Much like Qanta de Thaix, he returned and ran a stinker, in his case on unsuitably firm ground at Haydock. Given the form of the McCain string at the time, I’ll watch this one next time out too.

I’ve also got a few more horses to add to this list:
Somersby – I was slack-jawed when I saw this giant in the parade ring at Huntingdon. It was no surprise to realise that he is trained by Henrietta Knight and was obtained from the Costellos. He came fourth in a surprisingly hot little maiden hurdle (taken by festival bumper fourth Shoreacres), and was clearly needing softer ground, bigger fences, and further. He’s definitely one to follow when he goes chasing, but he will pay his way over hurdles this year. Same connections, and he looks like a clone of Calgary Bay, which is no bad thing.

Punchestowns – It’s a shame we didn’t get this site going before he put in the most impressive performance of the Open meeting, winning off top weight in a handicap hurdle at 7/1 in a good time. In a weak year for staying hurdlers (I’m unconvinced that either Kasbah Bliss or Blazing Bailey can wrest the crown from the brilliant, but surely fading, Inglis Drever, and the other pretenders haven’t impressed me) this one remains good value for the World Hurdle, which is just as well because he won’t be handicapping again for a while.

Trafford Lad – I was incredibly frustrated when this likeable sort was sent for the Ballymore in preference to the 3m grade 2, which I think he would have won by a mile. My each-way bet came in and eased the pain somewhat, however, and he’s novice chasing this year and impressing. He’s won his first two races, a pipe-opener over 2 miles, and a Grade 3 at Punchestown over 2m6f. He’ll continue to improve and is a live contender for the RSA chase, hopefully after some more profitable wins in Ireland.

King’s Forest – You can’t follow everything, and point-to-point racing has always been a closed book to me. However, I’ve learnt to keep an eye on the Gigginstown, the flat race at Punchestown that is the Irish PTP championship race. Last year’s was won by Pandorama, favourite for the Ballymore, who stuffed this likeable gelding out of sight. He is back in England and with Emma Lavelle now, and ran a decent race on reappearance, finishing fifth in a typically strong Cheltenham maiden. I’m not expecting miracles, but he’ll win one or two novice races over two miles or so this year.

Ten To Follow

2008-11-17T20:36:00.000Z

I’ve wasted £10 every year without fail in this competition. I like to make the same five mistakes every year:

o Always try to find a horse in every category and for every bonus race, ignoring the fact that horses in the same group can both score heavily.

o Always back a horse with dodgy form, based on stable “insider knowledge” that I read in the Racing Post.

o Always assume that champions will be deposed, and that I alone know which horses will replace them.

o Ignore any horses from the north.

o Desperately try to find horses that will win at Cheltenham, and ignore the rest of the season.

This year, I told myself, it would be different. We’ll see. I eventually narrowed my selection down to 11, giving me two entries. Just missing out: Punchestowns (doh!), Copper Bleu, Tatenen, Roll Along, Nine de Sivola, Neptune Collonges and Binocular.

Kauto Star – I’m not going to insult you by explaining this one.

Master Minded – Ditto.

Inglis Drever – This one did make me pause, actually. If there were any pretenders to his throne I rated, then I would have picked this as the year for his downfall. Maybe next year.

Noland – I didn’t expect him to win an Arkle last year, but with Our Vic getting on, he’s the pick of the bunch for the Ryanair, and I think he’ll pick up a few good prizes along the way. A really, really good run at Down Royal confirmed this decision.

Big Fella Thanks - Gosh, wasn’t his first run disappointing? After his runs over hurdles, and given his pedigree and build, I thought he was a cert to pick up some prizes over fences. I’m still hopeful, but I would have preferred a stronger start.

Voy Por Ustedes – I don’t know where he’ll race, or how far. King George? Champion Chase? Ryanair? Even (whisper it) Gold Cup? All I know is this: he’s a class horse, and his trainer places the good ones in all the right races.

Sublimity – Last year was a lost season but he’s a classy horse, and there are lots of valuable hurdle races in Ireland, even if he can’t compete in the championship races. I happen to think he can.

Jered – I was hoping he’d win on day one of the competition, I admit it. Well, he didn’t. That’s okay, there was nothing to suit, and I’d like to think he’ll improve all year and win plenty. I will confess though, two thoughts went through my head as he lost. 1: Surely I haven’t backed Clopf again? 2: If I’d backed Binocular instead I’d have a two mile hurdler on each side of the pond. We’ll see.

Trafford Lad – Have a look at my horses to follow. Or my ante-post portfolio. Or anything I wrote last year. Let me spell it out for you. I L-O-V-E T-H-I-S H-O-R-S-E. So there.

Kalahari King and Touch of Irish (one in each entry): My fancy for the Arkle and a novice hurdle (either the Ballymore or the Supreme). I’ve more confidence in Touch of Irish, but Kalahari King will be in a race with bonus points. So I’ll take both.

Cheltenham preview

2008-03-03T08:43:00.002Z

Apologies for the delay in posting all these previews - I've been hard at work on another project. Anyway, you'll find below detailed previews, with betting advice, of most of the major championship races at the festival. Feel free to respond with comments.

I should also say that these previews are all available, with debating space, at http://www.horseracingforumworld.com/index.php. Come and be a part of the best new horse racing forum out there. We've worked very hard to make it enjoyable and informative.

Good luck with your selections, and enjoy Cheltenham!

Gold Cup preview 2

2008-03-03T08:43:00.001Z

I wrote a Gold Cup preview a little after Christmas, in which I argued that Exotic Dancer was tremendous each way value and had a chance to win if the main pair cut each other’s throats. So let’s begin by de-bunking that idea. Exotic Dancer is currently priced anywhere between 10/1 (NRNB with Bet365) and 16/1 with SkyBet. Ladbrokes and William Hill, amongst others, suspended their markets on him. This is because of continued doubts over the horse’s soundness and fitness following a minor back injury.

I have faith in the horseman that surround Exotic Dancer, and I don’t believe they’ll let him line up if they aren’t satisfied he’s sound. However, fitness may be another issue. You don’t prepare for a Gold Cup, especially with Denman in the field, by swimming. You need hard gallops at home. More importantly, you need a run. This brings me onto the key point. He hasn’t had a race since Boxing Day. He isn’t a horse who’ll run to his best without preparation. He’ll need a career best to make the frame here. Moreover, Jackdaws Castle is having the most disappointing season I can remember, and Tony McCoy has been out almost as long as his mount. Reluctantly, we have to draw a line through Exotic Dancer.

What else has changed since January? Neptune Collonges has stepped forward in the betting, partly because of the defections or weaknesses of others, partly because of a bloodless victory at Wincanton in February. I’d love to see this brave and beautiful horse go close, but I can’t believe he will. His Cheltenham form is unimpressive, and he has a jumping style that sees him skidding on landing at downhill fences. When he finished third to Knowhere in the Letheby and Christopher, I was just relieved he got round okay. I don’t think he’ll show his best in these conditions and again, he’d need to show his best to be in the frame. As for Knowhere, he is a very smart handicapper who happened to win a below par graded race. I assume he’ll run in this, but it doesn’t matter. He’ll tail off in either this or the Ryanair.

I don’t understand why anyone thinks Kicking King will come back to anything approaching his best. You have to look at his form since his return, everything prior to his injury is meaningless. He barely competed in a middling Grade 2 at Gowran Park, and was stuffed by 13L at the end. This is no longer a Gold Cup winning horse. This is an old warrior who we should be pleased to see, but not expect too much of. Star de Mohaison is rated 21lb worse than Kauto Star (at 158) and although his run on return impressed me more than most, he seems unlikely to be ready in time. None of the other horses appearing in the markets can be expected to run.

For me, the each way value in this race comes in the unlikely shape of Halcon Genelardais. Alan King knows a thing or two about readying his string, and he thinks that this warrior will be ready for battle. He goes well fresh and he carried weight impressively in the mud at Chepstow over Christmas. If the ground is genuinely good to soft, I’d expect him to be one of the very few who jumps and stays well enough to stay in the race. Wait and see what the weather does, but keep this one in mind.

Before I tip a winner, I will lift a couple of comments from my earlier preview, as they are still germane. Firstly, ignore all talk of fewer than eight horses getting to the starting line. There will be a decent field, as the glory of the event will pull in the owners, and generous payments down to sixth place will decide the undecided. This means that each way bets are feasible. Secondly, do not fear a fall from either Denman or Kauto Star. It just isn’t something they do. Both are tidy jumpers who will not lose their skill over fences regardless of pace or tiredness. Kauto may be famed for clipping the last, but he’s always found a leg, and his jumping at Kempton, and again at Ascot, was a model of athletic grace at every fence.

Now for the main contest. Denman is a fascinating horse, and his presence makes the race much more interesting as much because he changes the shape of the race as because he is a potential winner. He will have to gallop the finish out of Kauto Star to have a chance. Can he? It is possible, he’s clearly an incredibly big, strong horse with a lovely attitude and great ability. People are knocking his form, but Mossbank was a good horse when comfortably beaten at a trip less than Denman’s best. He didn’t beat much in the Hennessey but he gave away weight all round and won by a county. He’s a class horse, and in most years a nailed on favourite.

Not this year, though. Kauto Star has impressed me far more this year than he did last. Giving a stone away over 2m4f to Monet’s Garden on a flat track, he was beaten by less than two lengths. His jumping and his battling spirit that day impressed me greatly. His win at Haydock was almost workmanlike, until one considers the distance that he and Exotic Dancer finished ahead of Beef or Salmon. Finally, his King George win could not have been easier, but he beat a good field by miles, and jumped perfectly. He then repeated the process at Ascot. He loves Cheltenham and is better over further than the 3m of the King George, his longest trip this year. He’s won this before. He battles, he jumps, he cruises around, and he’ll have Ruby Walsh on board. He’ll win.

Summary:
It’s all been said already. This is, quite simply, the most exciting head to head race of my lifetime. Pick a side if you wish, but enjoy the race for what it is, two great horses on the sport’s greatest stage. I’m with Kauto, but racing is the real winner. The gambling advice here is; don’t bother. The odds on the front two are fair, and short. If you back any other horse, you might be tempted to take your eyes off the race (don’t). Still, if you still have money by Friday afternoon, these would be my picks:
1pt win – Kauto Star, evs (generally available)
0.5pt e/w – Halcon Genelardais, 33/1 (generally available). Weather permitting, see how the ground rides on Tuesday.

Arkle preview

2008-03-03T08:42:00.000Z

Whether you bet on this race or not, it is clearly one to watch with the notebook out and the pencils sharpened, as history suggests this is the best guide to future chasing stars that we’ll see all season. In the last decade, the roll of honour takes in such luminaries as Azertyuiop, Moscow Flyer, Flagship Uberalles, and Voy Por Ustedes.

Yet despite this, the Arkle has not proved a favourite’s race, with Azertyuiop the only favourite to win since Young Pokey in 1992. This trend may be little more than a coincidence, however, as the top four in the betting have provided the winner in the last 11 runnings. Don’t look for an outsider to take this. Moreover, of the last 20 winners, all but one (Contraband) have finished first or second in every completed chase. It would be a huge surprise if the winner wasn’t a horse who’d shown consistency, class and top class jumping ability.

The firm favourite is Noland, who boasts festival form after winning the Supreme Novice’s in 2006. He was off the track until returning in January to take an ordinary race at Folkestone, and won again on his second chase start at Sandown, just holding the smart My Petra whilst giving away weight. He is yet another favourite for Nicholls and Walsh, and clearly has the class to take this. His jumping has been of a reasonable standard, but he’s yet to be really tested in that department, and his lack of experience (just nine runs, only two over fences) is a concern. He has his chance, but odds of 3/1 seem remarkably short on the basis of his form over the larger obstacles.

Tidal Bay remains high in the market, despite some atrocious jumping in finishing second to Leslingtaylor at Doncaster last time. He’s clearly a horse of enormous talent, but I’m strongly of the opinion that he’d be better suited by the longer trip of the RSA. Howard Johnstone doesn’t seem to agree, and the test will come on Tuesday 12th. I can’t see him jumping well enough at speed to take this event. Moreover, the current plight of the Durham yard, with no runners in the last week of February, is a major concern. His festival form, second to Massini’s Maguire in the Ballymore last year, is very solid, and he has won over fences at Cheltenham (albeit over 2m5f).

Mahogany Blaze has arguably the most solid form over fences of the main players. He has finished third in a chase, normally a negative, but he was behind Voy Por Ustedes and Master Minded in the Game Spirit, a tremendous run for a novice. I’ve seen him twice in the flesh, at Ascot and at Kempton, and on both occasions he impressed enormously with his jumping, not touching a twig. His festival form has not been impressive, but he left his hurdles form behind when he went chasing. Moreover, his narrow loss to Wee Robbie (after he and Marodima cut each other’s throats running fast in bottomless ground) showed that he had stamina and courage. He’ll need both to take this.

The top four in the market are rounded off by Clopf, the leading Irish contender . Touted as a possible Champion Hurdle hope, the early part of his season was a disappointment as he failed to compete in elite hurdle races. Switched to fences in January, he won well at Navan, ahead of highly regarded Quatre Heures. He then fell at the same course in the grade 2 Flyingbolt in February. The irony is that he jumped much better on his second outing than his first and was unlucky to knuckle on landing. His hurdling form shows he has the speed to take this and he is suited by a left-handed track and firm ground. However, there are still questions over his jumping ability, and this will be his first run in the UK. There are lots of questions, but, with Noland, he is the class horse in the field.

Among the pretenders, Moon Over Miami is another with excellent hurdling form, and he is unbeaten at Cheltenham. However, although clearly built to jump fences, his performances have been extremely inconsistent and there are question marks over his jumping, and his temperatment. Leslingtaylor owes his position in the market to his defeat of Tidal Bay, and he also defeated Marodima at Aintree early in the season. However, he fell on his only chase at Cheltenham. Whilst he was travelling well enough, the jumping test at Cheltenham was too severe on that occasion, and it seems likely that it will be again.

Kruguyrova is a five year old who fits all the trends. Charlie Egerton’s progressive mare has run to a consistently high standard, and is suited by going left-handed and by an undulating track. She seems sure to run a good race. One unknown quantity is her jockey, and the booking should be watched carefully. In a related bit of form, Ring The Boss has made only one start over fences, a close second behind Kruguyrova. He jumped very well over Warwick’s testing fences (and on a hilly track, no less) and shouldn’t be ignored, but it seems likely that he’ll find at least one too good for him again here.

The remaining horses can be discounted on the basis of at least one truly bad run. French Accordian was pulled up last time, and the heavy ground can only partially excuse that performance. Marodima demonstrated at Ascot that he can’t match Mahogany Blaze for either stamina or jumping ability. He’s also too flighty for the big stage. J’y Vole was poor last time out and isn’t a natural jumper. Perce Rock falls down a lot. Nothing else in has given any indication that it has the class to take this (note that I’m assuming Pomme Tiepy will be sent to the RSA Chase; if he does run here he’ll have a chance, but is likely to be outgunned by a swifter rival).

Summary
This seems to be between Mahogany Blaze, Noland and Clopf. Of these, the one with the most solid claim is Mahogany Blaze, despite the superior form of the others over hurdles. Jumping wins Arkles, and Mahogany Blaze jumps as well as any novice I can remember. I’m also expecting Kruguyrova to be thereabouts towards the end. Both are available at attractive prices:
2pts win – Mahogany Blaze , 8/1 (generally available)
0.5pt e/w – Kruguyrova, 20/1 (Ladbrokes, Skybet)

Queen Mother Champion Chase

2008-03-03T08:40:00.000Z

In my opinion this is the greatest steeplechase, and therefore the greatest sporting event, of the year. There is no finer test of the all-round national hunt horse than to take on thirteen of Cheltenham’s fearsome fences over two miles at breakneck pace. This is the ultimate test of speed, stamina, jumping ability, heart, and guts. I can’t wait.

More prosaically, this has always been a favourite’s race, and Newmill (16/1) is the only horse since Martha’s Son (7/1) to have won at odds of greater than 5/1. Arkle horses, unsurprisingly, have a superb record in this event, and festival form is a key indicator of a horse’s chances here. Age is not a significant trend, with winners at every age between 6 and 11 in the last decade. English and Irish horses have both tasted success. No horse has repeated since Viking Flagship’s win in 1995.

The market is headed by Master Minded and Twist Magic, vying for favouritism at around 5/2. The going will be key as Master Minded is considered to have a comparative advantage on softer ground. The record of 5yos in this race is very poor, but Master Minded is a French horse, with more chasing experience than most of his age, and quicker to develop physically. After unseating his rider on his British debut, he has won well at Sandown and Newbury. He’s clearly likely to come on from his last run and Ruby is tailor-made to ride in this sort of race. There’s plenty to like.

There are, however, a couple of negatives. Firstly, he has never run at Cheltenham. This is a huge negative on the trends, and it makes sense to me that it would be. We simply don’t know how well he’ll jump such difficult fences at such a rate. Sandown is probably as close a test as we’ll find, but it isn’t the same. Secondly, I watched his win at Sandown and seeing him in the paddock, I was not convinced I was looking at a future star. He’s well made and athletic enough but nothing about him speaks of class, he doesn’t have the swagger of a Best Mate, the size of a Florida Pearl, the sparkle of a Solerina. He’s just a nice horse. That being said, it does sound like he’s filled out since I saw him, so I can’t criticise too much.

Twist Magic has run at Cheltenham. He fell two from home in the Arkle when well in contention. He hasn’t been back since, and that to me is significant. Elsewhere, his form has been very impressive, with a win at Aintree in the Maghull Novices, and at Sandown in the Tingle. In the latter, he beat Voy Por Ustedes by 3L on level terms, a more impressive feat on paper than Master Minded’s victory over the same horse in the Game Spirit, winning 5L receiving 6lbs.

However, he also shaped like a horse who didn’t fancy a slog when beaten comfortably by Tamarinbleu in the Victor Chandler at Ascot. I was there for that race, and though the ground was bottomless, it was stamina that let him down. Make no mistake; the Champion Chase is a test of stamina. He’s been at his best in steadily run races and he may not get things his own way here.

Next in the betting is the defending champion, Voy Por Ustedes. Starting with the positives, he’s got flawless festival form, winning the 2006 Arkle as well as the 2007 Champion Chase. Of the market leaders, he is the only one we know can cope with a fast run two miles, as well as with Cheltenham. That counts for an awful lot. He also has the benefit of Alan King and Robert Thornton taking charge, men who understand the festival. There aren’t many who compare to Nicholls and Walsh, but these two aren’t far away.

On the other hand, the form from last year’s race couldn’t have worked out much worse. Much of that is because Run for You Guys’ (translation from Spanish: always teaching, me) own form has been fair, but far from impressive. He has been beaten, as described, by the Nicholls pair, as well as finishing second giving weight in a Cheltenham handicap, and winning an ordinary Christmas grade 2 at Kempton. No dreadful runs, you see, but nothing sensational either. However, I rate festival form above seasonal form for this race. Conditions will suit, and there are sufficient holes in the Ditcheat duo that this horse still has every chance. This will be the race that decides whether he is a legend, or simply a good festival horse.

Moving away from the market leaders, the Irish challenge is headed by Newmill, Mansony, and Nickname, though in truth the Irish two mile chasers are not a vintage crop. Nickname seems unlikely to run unless monsoons hit Cleeve Hill (and even then, most would favour Master Minded), Mansony was stuffed by a below par Twist Magic in the VC chase and can be discounted. Newmill is the most promising of the three. His victory in this race in 2006 is clearly excellent festival form. He was unlucky to be brought down at Punchestown last time but his form is improving, and he is another who will benefit from a fast pace and firmer ground.

Rounding off the remainder of the contenders (and I’m assuming for now that Tamarinbleu will race in the Ryanair and My Way De Solzen in the World Hurdle), only one horse remains who can be considered. Lennon, Don’t Push It, and Andreas can all be discounted as they don’t jump well enough for this race.

The one I would watch is Fair Along. Among last season’s top novices, he finished second in last year’s Arkle when favourite, and has run well on a few other occasions at Cheltenham. This brave little horse ran two good races on the flat in the Chester Cup and the Caesarewitch, and has been stepped up in trip this term. Although beaten a long way in the First Commercial at Ascot, he jumped well and travelled strongly. Reverting to the minimum trip at the festival, he’ll be suited by the quick ground and fast pace, and he should not be discounted.

Summary
This is a tricky race to call, as there are holes in the credentials of all the market leaders. The tentative suggestion is for Voy Por Ustedes, relishing his ideal conditions, to reverse form with both Twist Magic and Master Minded. I’m also very sweet on the prospects of Fair Along. So my advice is:
2pts win – Voy Por Ustedes, 4/1 (Ladbrokes)
1pt e/w – Fair Along, 16/1 (generally available)

Ryanair chase preview

2008-03-03T08:39:00.000Z

As part of the expansion to a four day festival, this race will always generate a mixed response. Whilst it lacks the prestige of the two champion chases, the quality has increased each year. In 2008, we look to have the highest quality renewal yet.

That being said, there are several horses whose participation is unclear. I have tried to cover those who are think are likely to be at the head of the market, but guesswork is inevitably involved in this. I’m assuming that, among the market principals, Monet’s Garden, Hobbs Hill, Fair Along, Aces Four and My Way De Solzen won’t run. Now that no runner no bet is available, I wouldn’t bet any other way on this race.

Three years isn’t long enough to give us meaningful trends. One startling statistic, however, is that of the nine horses who have won or placed, seven have come from the first four in the betting. So far this has been a favourites’ race, and it has this in common with all of the festival championships. Class will out, and experience is key when taking on the big fences at speed. Focusing on the head of the market, then:

Mossbank – The 8yo has been one of Ireland’s most improved chasers this season, winning the Clonmel Oil Chase, always an informative trial, before chasing Denman home in the Lexus. A true run 2m5f seems like an ideal trip for him. His run in the RSA chase, finishing a distant 13th, does not inspire confidence, but he has improved tremendously. That was his only run outside of Ireland so far, but don’t be fooled into thinking that he won’t act at Cheltenham just because his brilliant stablemate Beef or Salmon didn’t.

Our Vic – Failed to see out the trip when headed by Knowhere over 3m at Cheltenham last time. He is suited by the trip and acts well at Cheltenham. Ran a great race to come second here last year. He has a reputation for failing to perform, but has been a model of consistency the last two terms, although he has not won since the Charlie Hall Chase in October 2006. Now ten years old, he may not have many years left at the top.

The Listener - For all of us sentimentalists, a win for the Alners would be a highlight of the festival, and this brave sort is amongst their best hopes. He also carries a Gold Cup entry and will presumably run here only if there is soft ground. He jumps well and travels strongly, but it seems unlikely he will get the ground to suit him over this trip, or that he will stay the Gold Cup trip. Discounted.

Tamarinbleu – Stepped back in trip significantly to take the Victor Chandler at Ascot over an extended 2m. He also won the Boylesports over course and distance in December. Another highly progressive horse, he seems sure to run his race and can’t be discounted. He wouldn’t want it to firm, however, and his form may flatter him. Seems likely he’ll find one too classy here.

L’Antartique – Clearly loves Cheltenham, as he won the Jewson last year and the Paddy Power in November. He was disappointing in the Lexus and the Game Spirit on his last two runs, but neither were over a distance to suit, and he stayed on well enough in the Game Spirit. In the paddock that day, he looked a bit sparse. Ferdy Murphy knows how to get his string ready for the festivals and he’s likely to run to his best. Doubtful that’ll be enough, however.

Don’t Push It – Odds of 12/1 seem very constricted for this promising sort. He’s only been seen once this season, winning a hurdle handicap at Chepstow in October. Was running a blinder in the Arkle before falling at the second last. He subsequently disappointed at Aintree. This is clearly a horse with tremendous talent, but he has little chasing experience, fell badly last time on this course and may not be fully fit for this one. Passed over.

Racing Demon – Henrietta Knight’s charge finished remarkably close in this race last year, given how strongly he jumped right. Assuming he returns to this race in preference to the Gold Cup, he is likely to be prominent throughout, and if he can jump tidily not many will pass him. His jumping is the great imponderable, however.

Of the rest, the value is to be found by picking horses with class who are unlikely to run, and backing them NRNB. Knight Legend, second behind Mossbank at Clonmel, is one likely candidate, as is Knowhere, winner of the Letheby & Christoper on Cheltenham trials day.

Summary:
It seems likely that the trend for dominance from the top of the market will continue. Racing Demon, Mossbank and Tamarinbleu are all classy horses, but Our Vic is the classiest of the lot, and conditions are likely to suit him well. He should be backed with confidence.
4pts win – Our Vic, 5/1 (VC Bet, Paddy Power)

Supreme novices' preview

2008-03-03T08:38:00.000Z

The good news: with 7/1 the field, every horse can legitimately be backed each way. The bad news: with 7/1 the field, nobody has a clue who is going to win. Including me. The first race of the festival, and there won’t be many people playing with the bookie’s money after this.

We’ve seen three favourites win this in the last 15 runs, but there are no clear trends based on price. The only trends of note are that 5 and 6 year olds have dominated, winning 30 of the last 33 races, and that 11 of the last 12 winners won their last race. This makes sense for a big-field race with inexperienced sorts. You want to see winners and you want to see the young and strong. I can’t provide a list of all the likely types, as it would run to hundreds of pages, but what follows is a summary of the market leaders and a few others that have caught my eye. Feel free to chip in with your own fancies.

Captain Cee Bee leads the market. JP McManus owned, he started in bumpers before showing reasonable form over 1m4f on the flat. He’s showing good improvement from race to race and has won his last three. There are a few negatives, however. Most of his running has been on softer ground, and he’s only won right-handed over obstacles. He’s also seven, and hasn’t had a run since November. His (marginal) favouritism represents the weakness of the field as much as his own undoubted ability in such events.

The English challenge is headed, inevitably, by a Nicholls horse, Rippling Ring, who has top-class South African flat form. His run at Doncaster impressed, and if the comments from Ditcheat about his recent work are accurate, he’s improving. He has the right age profile, however, his lack of experience is a concern, as he’s only had one run over hurdles, right-handed on a flat track. Lots of imponderables.

Muirhead brings top class Irish form to the race, winning three times, twice over hurdles, beating Cork All Star last time. He’s impeccably bred and represents top connections. He’s five, and has the typical profile of winner. Only minor negatives are a relative lack of hurdling experience and no runs left-handed. Don’t be too concerned about stable form as they are clearly righting themselves in time. One to keep on the right side of.

Khyber Kim appeared to be going the right way, beating the smart Theatre Girl comfortably during the Christmas meet at Newbury. However, he was then beaten easily by some ordinary types at Doncaster, and should be discounted, even given Nicky Henderson’s qualities as a trainer. Cork All Star remains high in the market owing to his bumper form, but he’s lost his last three runs over hurdles and doesn’t jump well enough for this.

Fiveforfree finished a close fifth behind Cork All Star but has been far more impressive over hurdles. He won under Ruby Walsh last time out and represents Willie Mullins’ powerful yard. He’s another with only one run over hurdles, and he isn’t bred for stamina. Whether he can last a fast run over this course remains to be seen.

Sentry Duty made a name for himself by beating Celestial Halo when giving weight away at Doncaster. He’s got good flat form and is another from Henderson’s impressive string. He’s only had two runs over hurdles but has jumped very well on both occasions, and has plenty of experience from the flat. He’s the right age, too, at six. It remains to see who will get the ride, but it is likely Mick Fitz will have the pick of this ride or Khyber Kim, and his choice should be monitored.

Pigeon Island has been running since the summer, and is described by Nigel Twiston-Davies as the biggest improved he’s trained. His last run, in the admittedly weak Dovecote at Kempton was highly impressive as he gave weight to his rivals and destroyed them. His fifth in the Greatwood seems better and better as the form develops, and Paddy Brennan is a first class jockey. There’s a lot to like. However, he has run 19 times since the last festival, and whilst very impressive, he has always seemed half a notch below top class. When I saw him in the paddock at Kempton, I was a little underwhelmed.

Deep Purple lost to Breedsbreeze in the Tolworth last time out and is already seven. He’s passed over. Breedsbreeze and Binocular are ignored as they are unlikely to take up their entries. More promising is Group Captain, who leads Alan King’s impressive string of novice hurdlers. He’s won handily the last three times out, most recently giving weight to subsequent winner Working Title. He was a fair performer on the flat and has defied his breeding by demonstrating stamina under both codes.

Another eye-catcher is Jered, Noel Meade’s second entry and another owned by JP McManus. He’s also got an entry in the County Hurdle, but if he goes here he’ll have a chance. He won well at Punchestown last time and is nicely bred. He’s still progressive but he has adequate experience over hurdles. However, he’s unproven on ground as firm as he’ll encounter at Cheltenham. Keep an eye on the jockey bookings, going and final declarations, but don’t rule him out.

Summary
There are hundreds of the buggers, and it isn’t clear which of them is the best. This makes it a tricky betting proposition, to say the least. I’m very concerned that the winner won’t even have been mentioned above. When you reach for your wallet, remember Ezabiyan. Unless you backed Ebaziyan, in which case, please post your tips below. However, a couple of prospects are worthy a minimum stakes punts.
1pt e/w – Muirhead, 8/1 (generally available)
0.5pts e/w – Group Captain, 12/1 (Skybet, NRNB)
0.5pts e/w – Jered, 20/1 (generally available, take NRNB)

Triumph Hurdle preview

2008-03-03T08:37:00.000Z

Triumph Hurdle
From a tipping perspective, this may just be the hardest festival race to pick. This is hardly a surprise. By definition, the horses are young and lightly raced. Most have flat pedigrees and they will begin with questions about how they will cope with tough undulating NH tracks, with a two mile trip, and with jumping hurdles. Not all of these questions will have been answered. They are all improving, strengthening, and maturing over the season, and can look like different horses on each appearance.

All that being said, this is a race with some very strong trends. Since 1995, all but one of the winners won last time out. This is probably the most significant trend, as the race tends to be a large field cavalry charge. A horse with the will to win is needed. The second key “trend” is around trainers. The winners have been spread around, but they have tended to fall to the biggest stables, with King (twice), Hobbs (twice), O’Neill and Mullins winning the last six. The trend for big stables is strong going back further. In part this is because the big stables tend to spend most freely on picking up good flat horses, but it also reflects the skill of these trainers in coaxing continuous improvement out of young horses, and having them ready on the day.
With all of that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the horses we can expect to see at the tape for the opener on Gold Cup day:

Franchoek – The hot favourite is generally available at 9/4 or 5/2. Worth pointing out that whilst favourites don’t have a superb record in this race, there are no strong market trends to worry about. He’s from a great stable which boasts recent success in this race with Penzance and Katchit, and he beat a good field in a grade 2 at Cheltenham last time out. So he meets the trends, and he’s also demonstrated that he likes Cheltenham, jumps well, and stays every yard of a two mile trip. Indeed, he’ll want further in time. The only minor negatives are that he may not get the lead his front-running style requires, and that he wasn’t in the same class as a lot of these on the flat. Likely jockey booking is Robert Thornton, which is a plus.

Binocular – I’ve seen both his hurdles runs in the flesh, at Ascot and Kempton, and the 7/1 prices seem terribly short to me. That being said, he’s from a great stable with a storied Cheltenham record (Nicky Henderson’s yard) and has won both of his starts. Mick Fitzgerald will ride. He’s yet to go left-handed and there were jumping question marks at Kempton. Whilst his flat form in France is sound, there must be stamina questions as he is bred to stay about 10f on the flat. Can’t rule him out on class but lots of concerns remain.

Celestial Halo – The perfect flat profile, he finished seventh in the St Ledger and earned an RPR of 115. Now trained by the all-conquering Paul Nicholls. I would ignore the poor record Nicholls has in this race, as clearly he has the capacity to improve young horses. He was beaten by Sentry Duty, a good though not excellent 6yo novice at Doncaster last time, a huge negative. His jumping is fair and there are no stamina worries, but yet to really prove himself over timber.

Ashkazar – Ideally bred for the task, and trained by David Pipe, he won comfortably at Sandown last time, though he was well beaten by Franchoek previously. His flat form over about 1m4f is very solid. There are still questions as to whether he stays this far in a true run race, though he has soft ground as an excuse. It is also concerning that his weakest performance was on his only trip left-handed.

Beau Michael – Trained by Adrian McGuiness, who is a good trainer but lacks the track record of the big boys, he was bought for just 23,000Gns, cheap for a Triumph fancy. His flat form is weak and there are stamina concerns here too. However, he’s won his last three races handily, jumping well enough and seeing out the distance. He’s clearly progressive but one wonders how he’ll cope when challenged for his lead and when facing the Cheltenham hill after a true run race.

Personal Column – Trained by Jessica Harrington and nicely progressive. Has seemingly answered stamina questions with tough win over Won in the Dark (discounted, as small stable runner who lost last time out) at left-handed Leapordstown. A poor performer on the flat, he is clearly better for hurdles and can’t be discounted.

That deals with the top horses in the market. Time and space make it impossible to review all the remainder, but a couple warrant a mention. Don’t overlook Songe, who has good French form and has improved in two sound wins at Huntingdon and Doncaster. Charlie Longsdon isn’t the typical trainer of a winner, but a horse with a season of French experience is due a good performance in this race. At 33/1 No-runner-no-bet (B365) he is a sound wager for both this and the Fred Winter.

One rank outsider is Quinte du Chatelet. Trained by David Pipe he’s raced only once, winning over 1m4f on the flat in Lyon in November. He’s entered in this and there has been money for him of late. Keep an eye on the markets, and watch who Pipe gets aboard (with Murphy on Johnston’s Ashkazar, this might be the mount of Tom Scudamore).

Summary:
It’s hard to see past Franchoek taking this, as his form is so solid and he meets all of my criteria for a winner. Personal Column looks to be the best Irish challenge and Songe is amongst the each way value available. However, it’s such a cavalry charge of a race that all bets should be to minimum stakes.
1pt win Franchoek 5/2 (Paddy Power)
0.5pt e/w Personal Column 25/1 (Ladbrokes)
0.5pt e/w Songe 33/1 (Bet 365,NRNB)

World Hurdle Preview

2008-03-03T08:35:00.000Z

As a nation, we quite like the sweet torment of uncertainty in sport. We’ve suffered gleefully through David Beckham’s metatarsal injury, which taught us all the biology of the foot, and through Wayne Rooney’s metatarsal, which provided welcome revision. We’ve had Andy Murray’s wrist, as well as Johnny Wilkinson’s shoulder, arm, knee, shoulder again, appendix, groin, adductor, other knee and kidney. Now, it’s Inglis Drever’s mucus. Whilst this would be a terrific name for a punk band, it is very worrying for the horse racing community, particularly those of us for whom he was the festival banker. We’ll come back to that.

The World Hurdle has some strong trends, the most notable of which is age. The last 18 winners have been aged between 6 and 8. 5yos have placed often (including Blazing Bailey’s third last year) but have never won. The race was last won by a 9yo (Galmoy) in 1988, his second consecutive victory, and the only victor aged ten or older was the 11yo Crimson Embers in 1986. Crimson Embers, Galmoy, Inglis Drever and the great Baracouda have all taken the spoils twice, but no horse has won three contests (though Baracouda was arguably only prevented by the foot and mouth cancellation in 2001). In recent years, this has been a race won from the top of the market, with 8/1 representing the highest SP of a winner since Anzum (a shock at 40/1) in 1999.
Whatever the trends may tell us, this race revolves around Inglis Drever. The old warrior is nine now but has looked as good as ever in winning against top class opponents at Newbury and Cheltenham in his only two starts since seemingly not fancying it at Aintree last April. I had a period of doubt following that run, but I have repented. He may be older than the trends suggest is ideal, but he has the class and the desire to make history by winning a third title. His closest challenger from last year’s race, Mighty Man, will not compete, which helps, and it is clear that he loves Cheltenham and loves quick ground. It’s no wonder that he’s this year’s shortest priced horse for the entire meeting. Despite the recent drift, evens is the best price you’ll find.
This brings us back to his mucus. He’s drifted in the market because of concerns about his health. Howard Johnstone, it seems, took consignment of a bad batch of straw, to which a significant proportion of his stable suffered an allergic reaction, including burst blood vessels and, in one stable hand’s memorable account, “buckets of mucus”. I don’t need to tell you that “Buckets of Mucus” will be Inglis Drever’s Mucus’ first album. Move over, Simon Cowell.

I’m no horseman, but given the numerous operations that horses undergo to get their wind right, I just assumed that dust free bedding was standard. Even my hamster, back in the day, got dust free bedding. Leaving the causes aside, however, the effects were plain. Johnstone’s string suffered a severe dip in form and he withdrew from all races for the last week in February, only returning yesterday (Saturday 1st March) with two runners at Kelso, one of whom fell, the other, as favourite, finished a distant third.

What does all this tell us? Well, not a great deal. We’ve been told that the Drever is unaffected by this straw, and that his wind and general soundness are fine. There is still a little time to get some fitness back into him if he has missed any work. However, such a dip in stable form, particularly before a race as gruelling as this, is a significant concern. I won’t be backing any other Johnstone horses, but I just can’t see this one getting beaten. On his two runs this season, we’ve been assured that conditions (at Newbury) and a lack of work because of snow on the Durham gallops (at Cheltenham) would have him running below his best. He promptly put up RPRs on 170 and 168, more than enough to take this.

Looking at the contenders, Blazing Bailey appeared to be the next champion following his third in last year’s event. He disappointed first time out this season, a distant fourth in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury, before returning to form with a win over an extended two and half miles at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and a second to the Drever in the Cleeve. He’s clearly a very good horse and worthy of his place in the market, but on bare form, ratings, and the “eyeball test”, he doesn’t seem to have improved since last season. He’ll need to make dramatic strides if he is to take this.

Kasbah Bliss also went into a lot of notebooks after finishing fifth last year, again as a five year old. Francois Doumen’s charge has run a lot of races since then, with six in France before returning to England for three more runs. He’s clearly suited by soft ground and there is little evidence he’ll act on the expected good going. Stamina is also a concern, after he faded at Newbury and at Ascot over the winter. In France, he was running over 2m4f. However, he won comfortably ahead of the impressive Lough Derg at Haydock last time to put himself back into the mix. Personally, I wouldn’t make too much of the form, as the field behind Lough Derg was made up of underachievers, and Pipe’s horse made blunders and may not see out three miles. I can’t see him having the class, speed or stamina to compete on the biggest stage.

Wichita Lineman represents powerful connections, and was always going to run in this race following his demolition of the field in the Brit Insurace at last year’s festival. This season, however, his form has been poor, and he is winless in three runs. Moreover, he was campaigned over 2m4f in his first two starts, before being upped again to three miles at Haydock, and seemingly not staying on behind Kasbah Bliss. His place in the market is based on a win in a weak novice’s event last year and he should be discounted.

Hardy Eustace, at eleven, would throw the age trends out of the window, but stranger things have happened, and there are few classier horses about. The dual Champion Hurdle winner has been campaigned over a range of distances, and it is unclear what connections will do with him. However, in the Long Walk at Ascot he lost by the nine lengths the field gifted to Lough Derg and stayed on well for second place. If he does go here, his class and battling spirit seem sure to get him into the mix. All of the same can be said for Al Eile, except that he has repeatedly failed to act to his best at Cheltenham, and he is therefore passed over.

My Way de Solzen, the winner in 2006, is another who has had a truly peculiar campaign this year. After winning a World Hurdle and an Arkle, he was aimed at top class chases early in the season, and he failed to deliver. He had a long break, then returned for a spin over hurdles in the National Spirit at Fontwell, finishing second to Lough Derg. It’d be easy to dismiss him, but festival form counts for an awful lot and he has it in spades. There’s no doubt that he has the class to take this. I’m also intrigued by Robert Thornton’s comments that he is unsure whether to ride this horse or Blazing Bailey. He’s ridden both out for Alan King recently and if he thinks there is a decision to make it would be foolish to discount this multiple festival winner.

The last contender is Lough Derg. A lot of money would have been lost this season by those who start their analysis with “it’s hard to see him taking this”. It is, however, hard to see him taking this. He is clearly suited by soft ground and probably doesn’t want three miles. For all that, he’s surprised a lot of people a number of times this season, and his front-running style will certainly enliven proceedings if he does run. He has shown an attitude that doesn’t let many get past him, unlike a lot of front runners who tail off when passed. His form this season is rock-solid, but he has run a few too many races to fit the typical profile of a winner here. Tom Scudamore and David Pipe go from strength to strength and we must assume he’ll line up ready to give of his best.

Summary
This race begins and ends with the performance of Inglis Drever. If he runs to anything close to his best, he’ll win. If not, it is a wide-open contest, with Hardy Eustace and My Way de Solzen the classy horses with question marks and Blazing Bailey and Kasbah Bliss the conservative options. I would love to see the Drever win this, but at evens I can’t recommend a bet given the problems in the yard. The value, for me, is in two each way bets, both no runner no bet:
0.5pt e/w – Hardy Eustace, 11/1 (Paddy Power, NRNB)
0.5pt e/w – Lough Derg, 16/1 (Paddy Power, NRNB)

Sandown review, 03/02/08

2008-02-03T09:28:00.000Z

I was right that Sandown was cold, but it was a good day out and the card, I think, lived up to its promise. The juvenile hurdle was a muddling affair, which nobody wanted to lead. Timmy Murphy reluctantly took Ashkazar to the front and he led well enough and jumped handily. He made heavy weather of the last couple of furlongs and Bormo drew alongside before finishing well beaten. It was a nice win for a good horse, however, there was no pace in the race and the Sandown hill still seemed to cause problems, I’m not sure he’s answered any of the doubts about him. If he can’t get up the hill at Sandown with authority, he won’t do any better at Cheltenham. Bormo jumped well enough and was competitive without ever looking like a winner, and it’s hard to see him doing much as a novice. He ran as though he would manage further, but nothing in his pedigree or paddock appearance supported that. He may just not be a great horse. Pearl, incidentally, was better than I suggested in my preview, but was flattered to finish where she did and never took part in the race.

I’ve noticed this season that I can’t pick handicap chases, especially the short ones. They’ve always been profitable races for me. Once again, yesterday, I inspected them all in the paddock after studying the form, then picked the horses that finished seventh and eight. Of eight. Bleu Superbe did well to finish given a few truly awful jumps. At one point I thought he was stuck in the pond fence. Publican folded up like a tent when the pace increased and was well beaten in seventh. Worth noting what a fine ride Timmy Murphy gave him, cajoling him into travelling well and lining him up with a clear view of the pond fence and every chance. He just didn’t have a horse with the stamina for a 2m race.

The winner, however, jumped superbly, and Vinmix de Bessy is clearly one for the notebooks. With another jump in the rankings likely, he might just be a good thing in one of the supporting races at Cheltenham. Again, he was very well ridden, but Jamie Moore really didn’t have much to do. I like his uncomplicated riding style and I wish we’d see him on more good horses. Back to this race, and of the ones that VdB beat, Natal is still carrying too much weight and Almaydan didn’t seem to want it. Not many others caught the eye.

Osako d’Airy looked at one point like he might take part in the next race, but in the end it was the expected match race between Straw Bear and Afsoun. Afsoun took it readily enough, which is progress for him. Wearing a sheepskin noseband, he was still a little enthusiastic in preliminaries, and went to post like a juvenile on the flat, but he settled well and jumped tidily. He remains in my ten to follow and seems like a reasonable outsider for the Champion Hurdle, though he’ll be dependent on the mistakes of others. Certainly, he benefitted yesterday from the mistakes of Timmy Murphy, who followed a great ride with a weak one. Straw Bear was held off the pace, which is sensible, but they missed the break, and then Timmy did very little work on his horse until the race was over. It was as though he’d seen the markets and genuinely believed he was on a superior horse who would win at a hack. Murphy is a great jockey, but he couldn’t be more different to Tony McCoy and isn’t an appropriate replacement. The determined, aggressive style of McCoy will be welcomed by many people on his return, but expect Nick Gifford to be amongst the happiest.

The handicap hurdle was the expected competitive little affair and was well taken by The Tother One, who defied his punitive rise and took this one well enough. I overheard a posh woman with an owner’s badge say to her friend, “it’s horses like this who ruin the handicap for all the others”. You can’t sum it up better than that. Again, we must expect to see The Tother One at Cheltenham, and I assume he’ll run in the Ballymore, although he has an entry for this 3m event and that’s always an option. Even without the Connaught regalia, you can see he’s a Nicholls horse in the paddock, and I’d expect to see him winning plenty as a novice chaser next year. Behind him, I picked up second and third in this race. My thoughts on Warne’s Way are in the preview, below, and he lived up to my expectations, prominent throughout and running well. His run behind Lough Derg was the most reliable bit of form on the card at Ascot last time, and it’d be nice if he could win one now. Hills of Aran, in third, caught my eye in the preliminaries, and ran very nicely, hurdling well and finishing with great burst. He would have been much closer to the leader but for traffic problems. With good form at Cheltenham and a handicap mark that looks winnable he’s another one to watch for the festival, and he’ll be a fine chaser in time. The Very Man, off a featherweight, also looked well and finished strongly, and could pick up a similar race given firmer ground later in the season.

The Scilly Isles (or silly renaming) novices was next, and non-runners weakened the field considerably, making this a virtual penalty kick for the impressive Silverburn. He’s filled out considerably since last seen and I think he’s on his way to being a real force in this sort of race. That being said, he’s definitely a soft ground horse and best suited by 2m4f, so don’t expect to see him thrive at the festival. He’ll be bigger still next season, and if you fancy truly speculative punting, he might be one for the Paddy Power in November. He’ll certainly be better left-handed on this performance, as he travelled oddly, running well but never looking in front of him and needing firm reminders to take the turn out of the home straight. Behind him, The Market Man jumped well and travelled well, but was never able to lay down a challenge. He wasn’t impressive in the paddock, as he’s quite a scrawny sort. Wee Robbie was able to demonstrate that his win at Ascot really was a fluke.

Another handicap chase next, and another losing bet. Gungadu took this one gamely, and seemed to confirm that his problem at Chepstow was that he didn’t stay the Welsh National trip, and it was humble pie and a comforting pint for those of us who thought he didn’t enjoy winning. He idled a bit in front, it’s true, but he had them all well beaten by then. Yet another Nicholls horse who impressed enormously in the paddock, he’s got an entry for the Gold Cup and might surprise a few if he does run (though he won’t trouble the front three) and seems a reasonable prospect for the RP Trophy at Kempton. One more rise in the weights might be enough for him, though.

Back in the field, Irish Raptor couldn’t carry the weight of the Edredon family heirlooms over the line in first, but didn’t touch a twig, and if he gets in at the bottom of the weights for Aintree, I think he’s got a chance. My Immortal seems to be fairly weighted and was given every chance in this one but couldn’t get near the front two, and he’s a head-scratcher for the team at Pond House. There seems little point in dwelling on the remainder.

The last was a novice handicap hurdle, and you could tell the jockeys are used to finishing with a bumper. No hyperbole, I’ve never seen a race with more contact. There was argy-bargy right through the field, right through the race. At one point Snake Charmer’s race was ended when he was bumped so hard Charlie Poste lost a stirrup and very nearly his saddle. It was obviously too cold for the stewards to be watching, or possibly they were all on the 4:28 to London with me, because they weren’t hanging about with much-needed enquiries. Anyway, the winner was Pamak D’Airy, who took it well enough and is one to watch in the future. However, the race was run at a virtual crawl and it isn’t clear what he beat. Sarde impressed in the paddock but looked a tired and beaten horse when he fell over the unfortunate Coq Hardi. I didn’t stay to hear what happened to the two fallers so I was surprised and delighted to find that both horses and both jockeys were fine after one of those horrible, sideways, sliding falls.

Also surprising when I got in were the results from Doncaster. Watching the replays, I’m prepared to forgive Tidal Bay his run, though I’m angry with Howard Johnstone for placing him there. He clearly isn’t an Arkle horse. Yes, he has good travelling speed, but he can’t jump fluently at that pace. Over three miles, his jumping wouldn’t be an issue and we’d be looking at an impressive horse, if he could stay. We probably won’t find that out until after Cheltenham, unfortunately. Celestial Halo was more worrying, looking distinctly one-paced at Doncaster and beaten by the previously ordinary Sentry Duty. That being said, the pair were well clear of Donaldson and it may be that Sentry Duty has rounded into a decent hurdler. Nicholls’ comments, however, didn’t explain the deterioration in Celestial Halo’s hurdling since his last appearance. He’ll fall if he jumps like that at Cheltenham, with horses all around him. Better news for Nicholls came in the ready victory of Rippling Ring, who was entitled to be favourite on his flat form from South Africa, and who took it comfortably. He’s one to watch for in future. I don’t understand why anyone thought Kalahari King could beat him, and he finished a well-beaten fourth, which should end that infatuation.

I’m hoping to post my preview of the novice chases at Cheltenham later today. However, there’s the rugby to watch, plus racing at Punchestown and Fontwell, and the Super Bowl, so I’m “busy” all day. Good times.

Horses to follow from Sandown (less imaginative than usual, I’m afraid)
Hills of Aran
Irish Raptor in the Grand National
Silverburn
Vinmix de Bessy

Sandown preview

2008-02-01T23:15:00.000Z

One prediction I am very confident in: I will be cold at Sandown tomorrow. Not liking the weather forecasts very much. On the other hand, I do like the look of the card, and have a few thoughts to share on the subject.

12:55 Juvenile Hurdle
A small field for this one, dominated by Ashkazar. Two starts ago at Wincanton, he looked all over the Triumph winner, and it was a huge disappointment when he blundered and failed to stay at Chepstow last time out. The competition here won’t be stiff, and he is very much racing himself. Should he fail to complete or fail to stay, the likeliest beneficiary will be Bormo, as I don’t fancy Chance du Roy’s chance of carrying a penalty. Alan King’s charge ran well to finish fourth behind the impressive Art Professor and Metaphoric two starts ago, and last time out shaped well enough without threatening the winners at Leicester. Each way, he may represent the value in the race. Pearl makes her hurdling debut in a surprisingly classy race, and it will be interesting to see if the trainer knows something or if the owners fancied a day at Sandown.

1:30 Handicap Chase
A surprisingly aged field for a 2m handicap chase, and it is hard to spot the likely improver in the field. Almaydan is the obvious choice among the principles, as he’s well weighted to reverse form with Tanikos at Warwick and has the beating of Magic Sky from Wetherby. The value here may lie with a well weighted veteran, Bleu Superb. He’s now 13, but is running well, winning on his penultimate start and still fairly weighted. He jumps well and the conditions may suck the sprints out of the younger competitors.

2:05 Hurdle
The market suggests this weak renewal of the Contenders Hurdle will be a match race between Straw Bear and Afsoun, and it is hard to argue with that. Of the two, I have a marginal preference for Afsoun. He’s certainly inconsistent and frustrating, but I suspect he’ll cope better with the conditions, and if he runs to his abilities he’s marginally the better, in my view. Can’t justify a bet on anything in this one, though.

2:40 Handicap Hurdle
This is a far more open event and will be an intriguing betting heat. Vodka Bleu is clearly the pick of these if he can run to his chase form. He’s only carrying 10st and will see out the trip. However, I worry about sending him back over hurdles, as he’s only just really got the hang of chasing. He’s unlikely to move fast enough even if he does stay in contention by handling the smaller obstacles competently. The Tother One faces another big field but has gone 23lb up in the handicap since he beat Arafan et al over course and distance last time out. I can’t fancy him, either.

Once again, then, we start looking for each way value, and in this the market will be informative. There are a couple I’ll be keeping an eye on in the paddock. Firstly, Warne’s Way, who impressed me returning from a lay-off and finishing behind Lough Derg at Ascot last time. Only five and back from a wind op, he could find plenty of improvement and isn’t carrying much weight. My other tentative selection is Lyes Green has decent form over long trips and if the RP tissue of 20/1 is accurate, there is a bit of value there.

3:10 Novice Chase
The Scilly Isles is one of my favourite races of the season, and the major reason I’m getting myself to Sandown. That being said, the role of honour since Best Mate in 2000 is rather weak, with a group of handicap level horses, and New Little Bric, who should be better than that but has been bitterly disappointing this season.

This year’s renewal could well produce a few future stars, and the confident selection is Paul Nicholls’ Silverburn, who should be suited by trip, ground and track. A full brother to Denman, he hasn’t lived up to my expectations since a hugely impressive win at the Tolworth over hurdles. Chasing was always going to be his game but it’s taken him a while to get to grips with it. The Feltham at Kempton was probably a little far, and the ground a little firm, but he did jump well.

Hobbs Hill is the likely favourite, and has one four times racing over similar distances against elite small fields. It’s hard to pick a hole in him, as he jumps and travels well. I’d be happy to own him and have no reason to oppose him, he just doesn’t seem to have the same upside as Silverburn. Of the others, Wee Robbie enjoyed the bottomless ground at Ascot last time and was helped by the tactics of Marodima and Mahogany Blaze (see Ascot review, below). There is no reason to assume he can repeat here. None of the rest are of note.

3:40 Handicap Chase
Another wide open Saturday handicap, and no strong selections from me. I do think Irish Raptor can defy his weight increase, and should be preferred to the likely favourite Gungadu, who is carrying a big weight and is a suspect jumper. I’m looking forward to seeing what fellow blogger Jackane makes of Butler’s Cabin running, but I can’t see him featuring. Kelami would appeal, but for the jockey selection. I’ll bet, if at all, on a paddock pick and with a minimum stake.

4:10 Novice Handicap Hurdle
If horse racing offers a worse betting medium than a novice hurdle, I don’t want to be introduced to it. God only knows what any of this form is worth, or what has improved. Once again, I’ll be looking at them all in the paddock with an open mind. A marginal preference is for Montana Gold, if he returns effectively from a year off.

If you’re having a bet, best of luck, and I’ll return on Sunday to empty my notebooks. Hopefully I’ll see some festival winners for March and some future stars. I’m looking forward to this trip enormously.

Odds, sods, and the brilliance of KT and ID

2008-01-27T09:57:00.000Z

Today’s blog is a little more scattergun than usual. I’ve got a couple of thoughts on Cheltenham Trials day, which double up as previews for some of the less intriguing races. I also want to talk stallions (well, stallion, actually – Kayf Tara). Firstly, though, a few words on the new look. I’ve grown a widget. By which I mean, before the offensive emails start, my page has grown a widget. As I adore Dilbert, I’m quite fond of this widget. I’m also wondering about putting in a weather widget, but I can’t work out how to make it automatically change to show weather at courses with racing. You need to be cleverer than I am. Any other widget ideas, send ‘em to the usual place.

Kayf Tara
Those of you who see me on either of the forums I visit will know how excited I’ve been about this sire. Yesterday was yet another example of why. A debut bumper horse by Kayf Tara out of Maidwell, a Broadsword mare, was sent off at 50/1. Called Sail and Return, he came out of the Michael Scudamore yard and ran with the Edredon millions aboard. He was prominent throughout and was always going to place. Though I don’t like to criticise jockeys, the amateur aboard was a bit slow to go to work on him, and allowed Sunsetten a lead before he used his whip, and the race was over. That’s racing, and second place at 50/1 is still quite alright with me.
Sail and Return’s performance in a below-par bumper was not noteworthy. What was noteworthy was the starting price. In this race, only one of the starters had any prior form, so other than sales prices and stable whispers, all we had to work on was pedigree. The market has not yet recognised what a brilliant NH sire Kayf Tara has become. It won’t take long, so back ‘em while the value is there. With 28 winners to this point in the season, his progeny place him 15th in the jump sires rankings. He’s also picked up 23 seconds and 18 firsts, which I make 33% of his 207 runners finishing in the top three. Impressive for any sire, but until his brilliance is recognised, he will continue to represent terrific value. Unfortunately, I can’t work out a way to calculate the level stakes profit for blind backing his offspring, if anyone can, I’d love to hear about it.

I don’t remember Kayf Tara as a race horse, so I had a bit of a look at his race record, assuming I’d find an ordinary stayer. This horse was champion older stayer for three years in the 90’s, won two Ascot Gold Cups, two Irish St Ledger’s, a Yorkshire Cup, a Goodwood Cup, a Prix Vigier, the lot. Why on earth is he standing for £2,500, with a "special offer" that guarantees you a live foal? Oh, for a decent mare and a stable.

Letheby and Christoper
Moving onto Cheltenham, let’s start with a prediction. Knowhere will not be placing in the Gold Cup. Everything I wrote about that race still stands. Haven’t seen how the Post rated him, but something in the mid-160s seems about right to me, given we must assume Our Vic ran below his best (RPR 173) on a track he doesn’t act on, over too long a trip. Our Vic was beaten just 6L giving 6lbs. So Knowhere is not a contender, although he’s probably booked his ticket. That being said, he jumped well and it’s always nice to see a new horse picking up a quality prize.

In other Gold Cup news, I’m inclined to believe the spin from Jackdaws Castle that Exotic Dancer will be fine. Indeed, if the price drifts any further, I’ll probably take the each way. The way the forums are buzzing, you’d think the Dancer was a bad horse. Can’t see that, myself.

Juveniles and the Triumph
The Juvenile Hurdle was much more impressive. Indeed, to me that was the pick of the races on the card, although I’m not sure it played out that way. Franchoek’s run impressed me. I’ve always believed he is a quality horse, but I wasn’t convinced he’d beat top quality rivals over 2m1f. I thought he’d need further to really give of his best. However, he used the tacky ground to his advantage and turned it into a slog. Whether he can repeat on better ground (we assume) come March is another question. However, this race was closer to standard time than any of the others run yesterday, and Tatanen was well-regarded before being stuffed in this race.

We’re still left wondering about the form though, as the horses in second and third hadn’t set the world alight coming into the race. Squadron was beaten 20L, but I’ve already had my say after he won at Sandown (confirmed by Serhaaphim’s comprehensive defeat at Doncaster yesterday). Serabad is making a career out of following Franchoek around race courses. One more note about Squadron. I can’t see Alan King sending three to post in the Triumph, and Squadron has probably booked a place along with Franchoek. I imagine Norman the Great is therefore more likely to go to the Fred Winter, although I hope I’m wrong. You can’t even get a price on Norman the Great, but I want one...

Of Franchoek’s rivals for the main event, Binocular (as discussed in the Ascot post) surprised me with a dominant win last week, and Celestial Halo is short enough following an easy win. His position seems to be based more on hype, connections and flat form than anything he’s done to date. That being said, he hurdled well and has the ideal profile for a Triumph horse. I just don’t like 5/1 for a horse who hasn’t had to show his guts in a tough hurdle race. Presumably we’ll see him again once the ground dries a little. Binocular doesn’t interest me at 8/1, as I think the bookies have it about right at this stage. Askhazar disappointed over Christmas but Team Pipe have their horses flying and another good run could see him scoot back into contention.

This race is such a cavalry charge, and the horses so unexposed, I very rarely find a winner. I’m reluctant even to give a tip. However, as I said way back at the start of the season, Tinagoodnight impressed me at Kempton and should act left-handed. I’d like to see her in another run but the filly’s allowance is a valuable one as she’s too small to carry a penalty. 50/1 seems like a massive price to me, and I’ve had a nibble.

Inglis Drever and the mere mortals
Inglis Drever will win the World Hurdle again. Any questions? No? Excellent.

I can’t see anything getting closer to him than Blazing Bailey. BB himself probably won’t be as close come March as he did yesterday, as conditions suited, and there were theories that Inglis Drever wasn’t fully fit, because of the weather “up north” (you know, that foreign country where everyone has a flat cap, a whippet, eats pies and farts in bed, and the men are even worse). Well, once Richard Johnson opened the taps, it was game over, again. Festival banker. It’s a crying shame Mighty Man isn’t back this year, but there doesn’t seem to be much depth behind yesterday’s principles. Lough Derg doesn’t really want three miles, he wants 2m4f in a bog. There are lots of horses which might step up in distance (Hardy Eustace, Al Eile), and a few who need to step up in class (Kasbah Bliss seems the most likely and if Chief Dan George could stop clouting hurdles he’d have a hope, and we’ve always got the French contingent to consider) but this seems like a race where one could try that riskiest of bets, a straight forecast at the festival. Inglis Drever from Blazing Bailey, and the rest well beaten. Yesterday really was a trials day.

That’s all for today folks, thanks for your patience. I’ll be putting a few more previews together over the next couple of weeks, and I’m at Sandown on Saturday, so there should be fairly regular blogs. Real life has slowed me down in the pursuit of preview blogs, and I apologise for that.

Ascot, 19/01/08

2008-01-20T10:43:00.001Z

If you’ve already been to Ascot since the renovation, skip on a bit. I’m about to bore you. If you haven’t been to the new Ascot, go to their next meeting. Wander around with your mouth open, astounded that such a beautiful, airy, appropriately-designed building should ever have been erected in Britain, much less been placed on a race course. I spent most of my time before the first race doing just that, and I can’t recommend it highly enough. I know that the view is a bit suspect (although I suspect that is more of a problem on the straight mile than the round course) and I know that it is designed for corporate boxes ,not real fans, but still. It’s incredible. Doesn’t justify charging £4/pint, though.
The other good news for this review is that I’m much more positive about yesterday’s racing. I seem to have spent a lot of time moaning recently, and there won’t be much of that today. I might have to mention that I didn’t have a winner in four bets, but it would be churlish to worry about that too much. We were treated to some good horses and some good finishes, which is better than it might have been given the rain. The 8am inspection on Saturday explains why I didn’t produce a preview on Friday, if you’re feeling short changed.

On to the first race, and it was an interesting one indeed. I have a sneaking suspicion that we saw three very good horses. There is already talk of the Triumph for Binocular, and this makes a lot of sense. He’s a classy flat recruit and he won very comfortably, although I think the 6L given in today’s Post is generous. Watching him in the paddock, I worried about his stamina as he’s a little horse and he looks slightly bowed in the back, but he stayed every step of the trip, which was completed in a fair time given the conditions. One must assume that he’ll improve on faster ground given his pedigree and action, and that would make him a very real contender for the Triumph.

The horse in second, Norman the Great, was the clear paddock pick for me, calmer than Binocular, and more muscled, even if he was less athletic in gait. He was comfortably held throughout but stayed on well and jumped efficiently. He’s only been with Alan King since 1 November and there is presumably more improvement to be found. Given he was rated 23lb behind Binocular on the flat, this run suggests he’s already showing superior talent under this code. I wouldn’t be altogether surprised if he could reverse the form with Binocular in future races. Alan King’s yard now has two live Triumph contenders, with Norman the Great and the favourite Franchoek. He’s got a couple of handy novices in the Supreme division as well, and must be delighted by the progress of his beginners.

Finally, the fourth horse home, Metaphoric, was far from disappointing. He looked well in the paddock but in truth was never travelling and looked beaten half a mile from home. On the face of it, his 15L defeat was a step back on his previous form, but I was impressed at his battling spirit as he stayed on under pressure and was narrowing the gap at the post. He clearly didn’t relish conditions and may well improve again for this run and a return to better ground. Given the quality of his debut run, short-headed by Art Professor in receipt of 5lb, as well as his flat form, he should not be discounted and his attitude made me a friend for life.

The second race also featured a battling performance from Lough Derg, who appeared to have thrown in the towel when headed 4f out, but he battled back to win from Warne’s Way who had contested the lead throughout. Lough Derg now heads the Order of Merit, and is a testimony to the success trainers can have by targeting mid-season races. This horse is not suited by any of the festival races, and does best on soft ground and right-handed tracks. Giving away over a stone to almost all of the competitors on very soft ground, this was a brave effort indeed and an impressive win. Just don’t expect a repetition in the World Hurdle. Not much to say of the others, except that Warne’s Way has apparently had a wind operation, which has clearly improved him enormously (although I expect the handicapper will have his say ere long) and that rumours of Penzance’s return were greatly exaggerated.

The Victor Chandler Chase, now a Grade 1, was the next event, and it was won by Tamarinbleu. Yes, it was. Honestly. With Ashley Brook apparently not turning up (and I’m thinking of blogging a “what do you do with...” column to cover AB, as well as Black Jack Ketchum and various other horses whose talent is coming to nothing, for whatever reason) Tamarinbleu had an easy lead throughout, and was never in danger of losing the race. Twist Magic looked like he’d take over at one point but faded from a long way out, and Mansony was never in the race. I don’t care what his trainer says, he should be going left-handed. Despite all of this, it was a good win by Tamarinbleu, and there will be interesting questions about where to send him next (I’d say the Ryanair, then Aintree, and don’t think about a third race, but nobody ever asks me). I wouldn’t write off Twist Magic on the basis of this run, however.

Next up we saw a novices race that was, well, novicey. Marodima and Mahogany Blaze, the two principals in the race, set off at a tremendous lick and left the rest 30L behind. Then, inevitably, they ran out of gas, first Marodima, who finished a distant and exhausted fourth, and then Mahogany Blaze, agonisingly headed in the last few strides. One can only imagine Ruby Walsh’s expression in the weighing room after Timmy Murphy came south from Haydock and took the ride on Marodima. Wee Robbie ran an improved race to win, but he was dropping in trip by a mile and half since his last run, and essentially won because of the mistakes of the others. Murphy and Paddy Brennan can’t be happy that they allowed this to happen, but these things happen with novices, and horses are stronger than jockeys.

Whilst the form can’t be taken literally, it is informative. All of Marodima’s improvement has come since he was sent out to front-run, and he didn’t react at all well to contesting or sharing a lead. Come the Arkle, he’ll have to settle better or he will be beaten. Mahogany Blaze, on the other hand, seemed marginally the calmer of the two in front and certainly displayed superior stamina. He looked stronger and fitter in the paddock than when I saw him at Kempton, and jumped more impressively. He remains on my Arkle short-list. Mind you, that’s quite a long short-list.

Labelthou took the Mare’s hurdle from Refinement, Gaspara (who should really be renamed Gaspara the Monkey) and Material World. She relished the conditions and clearly had stamina reserves the others couldn’t match. It was also a pleasure to see her hurdling fluently after watching her struggle over fences for much of this season (and fearing the worst when she fell at Haydock). It was good to see Emma Lavelle pick the right race for the horse, and hopefully this confidence boost will help if she is returned to chasing. Personally, I think she should stick to races like these. Nothing to be said about the others, with the other three the market rated finishing in a heap, and the outsiders running like outsiders.

The last two races may be dealt with even more rapidly. We saw a handicap chase which mostly pitted exposed types against each other, and which was won by Regal Heights, who was best suited by the conditions. Donald McCain’s comments in the Post, incidentally, are proving to be amongst the most astute offered by any trainer, and he was unusually positive about this horse. My pick to follow from Sandown, Chief Yeoman, jumped very badly and was never in it. Finally, the qualifying race for the NH novice hurdle went to Nicky Henderson’s Earth Crystal, who hurdled extremely competently on debut over the obstacles, and confirmed sound form from points and bumpers. Henderson’s horses have a 42% strike rate so far this January and are heating up nicely. Is there some kind of festival coming up? Back in the field, Alternator in fourth impressed in the paddock and jumped well, but was exhausted down the home straight. Hopefully firmer ground and the run will bring him on.

I’ve tried to pull the useful threads out of the form, but a general caveat is needed. Form from extremes of ground is always difficult to read, but the conditions on Saturday make the form almost meaningless. In my opinion, heavy ground covers a wide range of possible conditions, from wet to gluey to lumpy. On occasions, we see heavy ground in which the times are reasonable and in which cruising is possible, but acceleration is next to impossible. Torque, in other words, is unattainable. This is what we saw at Ascot. Tamarinbleu won because Twist Magic was exhausted by the effort of coming on terms. Racing 5-10L back, he’d been travelling well and looked comfortable. Labelthou won because anything that tried to challenge her was exhausted by getting there. The winners we saw were the stayers, which is unsurprising, but more than that they were the one-paced horses, and often the front-runners. So treat the form with great caution.

Horses to follow from Ascot:
Binocular
Norman the Great
Metaphoric
Alternator

Cheltenham Preview 1 - Gold Cup

2008-01-15T11:01:00.000Z

It is well past time I put together a first preview of the Cheltenham Festival. There is no formal plan for these, but I’ll try and hit each of the major races some time in January, and some time in February, and then have one final blog a few days before the Festival begins. I might even blog through the festival. For those of you with more immediate concerns, I’m hoping to put together a preview of the VC Chase meeting at Ascot on Friday. Normal review of that meeting will follow in due course. Let’s get going, shall we?

Gold Cup:
This may sound like a clichéd introduction, but I keep seeing this race in my head. What I see is Denman leading them all on a gallop from 1m4f out that Kauto Star can’t cope with, and that leaves Exotic Dancer able to sprint past Denman. In short, I can see the Nicholls pair cutting each other’s throats. One thing I can’t see is any other horse getting into the places.

The other protagonists are dealt with fairly readily. Star de Mohaison is rated 21lb worse than Kauto Star (at 158) and although his run on return impressed me more than most, but he seems unlikely to be ready in time. Aces Four has yet to prove to me that he can jump and stay on an undulating track with challenging fences. Having swerved the King George, I can see connections swerving the Gold Cup too, and trying again next year, particularly as Ferdy Murphy is a conservative trainer. Yet those two are next in the market.

Looking at this from a ratings perspective, the top three are RPR 180+. Of the other entries with an RPR of 170+, Mossbank and The Listener picked up their ratings finishing well beaten by Denman at the Lexus. The Listener needs soft ground, both need a shorter trip, and both will presumably go to the Ryanair. At the Ryanair, they will find Our Vic, who simply cannot stay the Gold Cup trip. Finally, we have Halcon Generaldais, who has his best form in the Welsh National. 3m6f in the mud at Chepstow. Well, I’m sure he’ll see out the trip, but it shows the gulf between the top three and everyone else when I rate him a likely fourth.

Two more comments on the shape of the race, before we find the winner. Firstly, ignore all talk of fewer than eight horses getting to the starting line. There will be a decent field, as the glory of the event will pull in the owners, and generous payments down to sixth place will decide the undecided. Secondly, do not fear a fall from any of the top three. It just isn’t something they do. All are tidy jumpers who will not lose their skill over fences regardless of pace or tiredness. Kauto may be famed for clipping the last, but he’s always found a leg, and his jumping at Kempton was a model of athletic grace at every fence.

So, we have three horses nailed on for three places. Therefore, if you enjoy e/w betting for small profits (which I don’t, although I see the logic in it), 10/1 for Exotic Dancer (Ladbrokes, and others) is some of the best value around. To complete the picture, Kauto Star is 11/8 with Sporting, 5/4 generally, and Denman is 2/1 for the most part. Those prices seem fairly stable and I see them staying that way (although a couple of minor ripples are likely, when we have an idea about the ground, and when Ruby decides which horse he’d like to ride). I still wouldn’t rule out the scenario I’ve outlined above, in which Exotic Dancer benefits from the clashing tactics of the opposition, but it does seem like his only chance. He has to be run as a hold-up horse and he has to be run at a fearsome gallop.

Denman is a fascinating horse, and his presence makes the race much more interesting as much because he changes the shape of the race as because he is a potential winner. He will have to gallop the finish out of Kauto Star to have a chance. Can he? It is possible, he’s clearly an incredibly big, strong horse with a lovely attitude and great ability. People are knocking his form, but Mossbank was a good horse when comfortably beaten at a trip less than Denman’s best. He didn’t beat much in the Hennessey but he gave away weight all round and won by a county. He’s a class horse, and in most years a nailed on favourite.

Not this year, though. Kauto Star has impressed me far more this year than he did last. Giving a stone away over 2m4f to Monet’s Garden on a flat track, he was beaten by less than two lengths. His jumping and his battling spirit that day impressed me greatly. His win at Haydock was almost workmanlike, until one considers the distance that he and Exotic Dancer finished ahead of Beef or Salmon. Finally, his King George win could not have been easier, but he beat a good field by miles, and jumped perfectly. He loves Cheltenham and is better over further than the 3m of the King George. He’s done it before. He battles, he jumps, he cruises around, and he’ll have Ruby Walsh on board. He’ll win.

Sandown, 5/01/08

2008-01-07T12:09:00.000Z

Fun to get back to Sandown, for the first time in nearly a year. Every time I go, the facilities have been improved in some way. There is no better race course for a nice pint. However, the food is still rubbish. Also, it’d be helpful if someone could put the big screen back where it used to be (or better yet, remove it altogether) as it now blocks two of the railway fences. Other than those two small quibbles, to my mind the best of the big courses for a day out.

Although I’ll go back to Sandown often, I won’t be going back to the Tolworth meeting unless they sort out the undercard. What an underwhelming collection of races. Apart from the Tolworth, we had two ordinary handicap chases, a mares’ hurdle (although it was the entries, with a 1/5 favourite, not the race programme, that made this tedious as both a betting and a watching medium) a very ordinary handicap hurdle, and a juvenile novices race that didn’t attract the calibre of horses it deserved. I appreciate it’s a tricky meeting, as many of the top horses will run over Christmas and their trainers won’t want them out again in a quiet period, but something needs to be done about the supporting cast.

Here’s what I’d like to see:
1. Improve the juvenile hurdle. Lots of top juveniles run in January and February, and this class 3, £6k event won’t attract many of them. Make this a second feature race, ideally a grade three.
2. Replace one of the handicap chases with a novice event. I know that Sandown already hosts the Scilly Isles and the Henry VIII, but they could manage another event. If I were a trainer, I’d be much more interested in running a decent novice at Sandown than at the Kempton in the Feltham. It’s a great test of jumping and stamina.
3. Pump a little more money into the two remaining handicaps and raise the top rating allowed. Judging by the size of the crowd, attracting better fields would pay for itself in increased entries.
4. Most importantly, add a seventh race! Even if it is just a bumper, a full card, to my mind, has seven races. A bumper could be added for minimal expense, and would doubtless attract a big field and lively betting. It also gives another half hour for the bars to justify the expense of running the place.

Anyway, onto the races, which don’t really justify much attention. First up was the mares’ hurdle. This was won by Chomba Womba, some 30lbs better than her opponents on RPR and 1/5 favourite. She won readily enough, but scarcely in the manner that might have been expected. The times suggest that she wasn’t facing a field of improvers, either, and is one to oppose when she reappears. On that running, it is almost impossible to see her lasting up the hill in the new mares’ hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Short odds or not, Amaretto Rose looks like better and better value for that race. De Blanc ran well enough on her return from a long break and Thehonourablelady impressed in the paddock though was caught for stamina a distance from home. Both might be worth a look if dropped in class.

Second up was the juvenile hurdle. Alan King’s Squadron impressed, jumping well enough for the most part, and looking at home on the racecourse. It is in part a reflection of the other candidates that his odds for the Triumph are as small as they are (16/1 or thereabouts). I’d want to see him handle a stronger gallop and a more undulating track before I considered him. It was, however, a ready victory over a reasonable field.

The first handicap chase was taken impressively by Master Minded for the Nicholls/Walsh powerhouse. Despite the colours, nobody would mistake this horse for Kauto Star, and talk of the Champion Chase seems to me to fall between optimistic and misguided. It was, however, good to see Hasty Prince returning to form in second place. Now off a similar mark to this time last year, he runs well in the spring and is one to look for in some of the bigger handicaps over the festival period. Back in the field,

Onto the Tolworth, and Mr Walsh again dismounted in the winner’s enclosure, on the impressive Breedsbreeze, who looked the part and won handily. It was an accomplished ride from Ruby who timed his break well and seemed to catch a couple napping. As so many have said, it wasn’t the most impressive of renewals, and it will be a question of watching the form to see what he beat. Calgary Bay can best be described as massive, and is a typical Costello product. He gave each of the fences plenty of air and will doubtless be novice chasing next year. Another run may give us a more comprehensive clue as to whether they take the Arkle or RSA route, but either way he’ll be a nice ante-post bet, and will presumably stay in time. Deep Purple didn’t seem to act on the ground but showed a decent turn of speed. He seems just a class below a grade 1 winner, however. Sweetheart has attracted some positive press, and did stay on well, however, she was in receipt of 19lb from the remainder of the field and finished a never better 20L+ behind the winner. She looked a nice sort in the paddock, but on this form, needs time to develop strength. My millions were on Psychomodo, who impressed in the paddock but disposed of Mick Fitz within half a circuit. This is the second time he’s failed to complete, and it is hard to know how good he is. Assuming he recovers from his fall (and he seemed fine) expect a rapid reappearance, although I won’t back him again until he has finished a race.

The handicap hurdle which followed was only marginally quicker than the Tolworth, with the winner carrying a stone less. Nicholls and Walsh completed a treble with the 16/1 shot Five Dream, who ran well enough and comfortably held the strong-finishing European Dream. Again, this is hardly a race to get excited about, and once the handicapper has his say it is hard to imagine him repeating. European Dream handled the going well and stuck to his task, but needs a lot to go his way for a win these days. The one that impressed me was Fredensborg, AP McCoy’s mount who finished well beaten in fourth but shaped well enough and with better ground could be an improver. Nothing to get excited about, however.

Finally, the handicap chase was won by Backbeat, who proved that paddock watching isn’t the best approach. Wooly and patchy in his coat, and with no recent form to speak of, he made all and was never seriously challenged. I knocked him off my shortlist at a glance and was kicking myself from Esher to Vauxhall. That being said, we have to expect a reaction from the handicapper, and the time wasn’t much to write home about. My paddock pick was Venetia Williams’ Chief Yeoman, a beautiful horse who travelled well but jumped poorly. As a result, he weakened a distance from home. Over less challenging fences, he looks to be off a winnable mark.

Horses to follow: Calgary Bay (a really impressive chasing prospect)
Chief Yeoman
Hasty Prince
Fredensborg – but don’t follow the last three too closely!

A little housekeeping: It’s been far too long between blogs, because I’ve been tied up with exams and Christmas. However, I’m going racing a fair bit over the next couple of months and will post the usual reviews, and the occasional preview, around:
Ascot, 19th January (Victor Chandler Chase)
Sandown, 2nd February (Agfa Handicap/Scilly Isles)
Plumpton, 11th February
Kempton, 23rd February (Racing Post Chase)

I’m also hoping to put up a few thoughts around key Cheltenham races, and also about Raceform Interactive, if I decide I can afford the £69/month to make it mine. Incidentally, go to their website and take the tour. Like me, you’ll covet it!

It’s always nice to hear what people think, so don’t hesitate to email me at edredonbrowny@gmail.com with any thoughts, suggestions, complaints or corrections.

Fontwell Park, 9/11/07

2007-11-12T20:49:00.000Z

If you’re wondering why it’s taken me three days to get a review online after my trip to Fontwell Park on Friday, there are two reasons. The biggie is that I’ve got accountancy exams to worry about, which are playing havoc with my racing time. The second reason is that it’s taken my fingers about three days to defrost. I know that being cold is part of the NH experience, but dearie me. It was unpleasant. It was also unpleasant to get there, but I can’t blame Fontwell for that.

When I finally did get there, I had time to get a (losing) bet on for the opener, a novice hurdle, but I missed the parade, so few impressions to be given. Ouragan Lagrange took it, and was value for more than his winning distance, as he wandered dreadfully after the last. He looked comfortable in the winner’s paddock afterwards, and was carrying a little condition. As this was his first run in months, we can expect progress. Little to be said of those behind him, but I wouldn’t totally lose faith in Forest Spirit, who may have been surprised by an improving sort. My selection, Ghaill Force, has failed to build on an impressive enough third at Plumpton two runs ago. Needs a break and a chance to strengthen up.

Big Al took the handicap chase, having been the subject of substantial market support. He led from the tape, and jumped well. Sam Jones didn’t get lost, impressive for a 5lb claimer negotiating Fontwell. He was the youngest horse in the field, and possibly the biggest, and will probably get a hike in the ratings for his troubles. His jumping will keep him in races though, and he can’t be overlooked. As to what he beat, I continue to be impressed by both Lusaka de Pembo and Castlemore, but the truth is the handicapper knew all Al’s rivals well enough.

Ndola was a rare event for me, a horse I saw in the paddock and knew I had to back, although he wasn’t on my shortlist. I can only blame the train difficulties, as I should have spotted him. Won comfortably, but he beat a lot of horses who are lucky to be still running in sellers. I was amused by the comments of the auctioneer, who sold him as little short of the second coming of Secretariat. He is eight, was 0-11 over hurdles, and beat a bunch of donkeys at Fontwell! He changed hands for over 10,000 Guineas, which makes me wish I had the money of my fellow racegoers. I’d put it to better use.

The only horse to look in the same class was Grey Paint, who fell at the second. Obviously a worry, but he has the right connections, and age on his side, so he may improve. Think of him as a project. I can’t move on without praising the authorities and the ambulance service for their smooth and professional handling of the twin injuries to Tom Scudamore and David Boland. Both will miss time (including the Open meeting) but both will recover fully.

The mare’s novice was an impressive race, and several of these will improve. Papeete, in second, was my pick in the paddock. She jumped well but didn’t travel adequately to trouble the winner Methodical, who looked a class apart and continued Brendan Powell’s glorious November. Both can win future races, although neither will be big enough to carry penalties against the stronger sex with any brilliance. Expect to see a campaign in similar races.

Little to say about the handicap hurdle. Five well exposed types in a very ordinary race. I never get miserable at the races, but I was a glad of the hip flask and looking forward to the next race before this finished. Quarrymount won, by the way. One curiosity, which warrants mentioning, is that the official SPs were under-broke, at 98%. Needless to say, my maths wasn’t good enough to spot that, so I wasn’t betting at all. Should have been on all of them. Story of my life.

Speaking of my betting misery, it wasn’t helped by the next race, the mare’s bumper. I was on board Ashley’s Petale. If that seems familiar to you, that’s because trainer and jockey both picked up bans under the “non-trier’s” rule, for schooling their horse on the course. Once Nick Gifford is allowed to bring the horse back, after 40 days, he may have a good ‘un on his hands. She wasn’t big, but she was compact and athletic, well-made. Expect her to pick up a couple of hurdle races if she doesn’t win a bumper beforehand. Of the horses that actually competed, the front pair, Lavender Track and Fit to Drive came home along way ahead of Paul Nicholls’ favourite, Taralina. The time didn’t impress, but Lavender Track has been there or thereabouts and looks a consistent, scopey type. Expect her to make a little noise in some minor hurdle races.

Abutilon won the last. Presumably he has more carrots in his diet than the others, as he won a few minutes after it got dark. I have no idea why they ran the bumper before this, but the horses could have done with the fences being spotlit. Fortunately there were no fallers, and all seemed to cope well. Abutilon’s win was facile enough, and he is young enough to improve for it. He doesn’t look quite like the finished product, and is likely to be better next season. Something of the lanky teenager about him, but then he’s only four. Of the others, I was impressed most by the lightly raced Pitton Prince, an eight year old making his sixth appearance on track and his first for nearly two years. A handsome grey, he moves well, and is a brave, leggy type who travelled well and found plenty after coming off the bridle 4f from home.

Re-reading this, it seems like a very negative experience. It wasn't, and it certainly shouldn’t put you off going to Fontwell, a lovely course in a nice part of the world. The racing tends to be better than it was on Friday, but get down there. Better yet, go for a couple of days, take your better half and enjoy Arundel while you’re at it. It’s racing in a real country atmosphere, like stepping back in time. Just wrap up warm.

Horses to follow:
Pitton Prince, if he stays sound
Big Al
Ashley’s Petale
Papeete

Wetherby review, 3/11/07

2007-11-05T19:41:00.000Z

Wetherby races, and Mother Nature ruined everything. I should warn you, I’m on one today. If you want to read a positive, balanced account of Saturday’s card, I suggest you try Roy Waterhouse’s at http://www.rwsteeplechasing.co.uk/. As with all of his stuff, it’s an informative read and full of good opinion. It isn’t, on this occasion, opinion I agree with.

The new Wetherby course is, in my opinion, not as good as it used to be. It was always a long run on the flat around the home bend, but it seems to have got even longer. I don’t know whether Paul Nicholls was right about the ground, but it is a long, tight bend that seemed to really favour the front-runners through the two days of the meeting. Shades of Brighton. It was also a real shame that the ground was wrong and they missed out one of the three fences down the back straight. Three stiff fences, close together and at the end of a long gallop present a real challenge. Shame we didn’t get one; Wetherby looked like an easy course, even for the novices.

I should say, however, that the facilities for punters are terrific. It’s a genuinely friendly track, with a knowledgeable crowd who manage to have a lot of fun (and a lot of John Smiths) without ever being rowdy or ruining it for others. The paddock and saddling enclosure are well designed and pleasingly open, and there are few flat courses where you can see more of the race. They could usefully either get rid of the big screen or put it somewhere more useful.

As I said though, my main gripe was with the quality of the racing. I just can’t believe how poor the fields were. There can be little doubt that some trainers were put off by the new course (since Paul Nicholls said so, and all), but I think the going was the decisive factor. The ground was substantially firmer than the official good to firm. It barely gave an inch to my heel after the last race, when the dew was falling. The number of horses declared with five days to run who did not turn up was enormous, and accounted for most of the quality in the field.

A field of four contested the beginner’s chase, won by Battle Cry for Nigel Twiston-Davies and Paddy Brennan. The favourite took it by nine lengths and the result was never in doubt. It was hard to see what he beat, however. Water Taxi, my selection until I reached the paddock was small and leggy, and didn’t look any kind of racehorse, much less a staying chaser. He overtook Overlut, the paddock pick, when the stronger, taller, younger horse faded down the straight. Battle Cry and Overlut are the two to take from this race, but not with any confidence. Quai du Roi showed signs of being the worst horse in Paul Nicholls’ stable.

After watching Knockavilla at Carlisle in a bumper (and tipping him as one to follow) I was surprised to see him turned out in a novice hurdle, as he was green as baize, and I assumed we’d see him in at least one more bumper. He promptly ran well, jumped smoothly and showed none of his youth this time out. He was most impressive in the paddock, moved well to post and travelled well throughout, showing no signs of hanging as in his bumper. Follow this horse; if Howard Johnston can keep him right he looks a top level prospect. With Speed, who was tired and fell three out, he was impressive in the paddock and will come on for this experience. Go Tech was another promising type who jumped well, although he was only average on the flat, and he is yet to show he really stays this minimum trip. Exit to Luck deserves one more chance, but watched with your hand in your pocket. Ignore the rest.

The next event was ordinary. Very ordinary. It wouldn’t have been out of place at Hexham or Taunton on a Monday. Or de Grugy was a comfortable winner, but it remains to see what the handicapper will do. The only one to really watch from this was Leonardo’s Friend, who finished dead last after fading badly. He’s a baby at four, and clearly looked the part in the paddock if a bit backward. Something of Copsale Lad about him, and I’d reckon to see him in future years winning some handicaps over 2m4f or even further. For this season, the tentative recommendation is that The Stickler, impressive in the paddock but travelling erratically at the back of a very slow field, might do better on softer ground. He had the action of a soft ground horse.

Enough has been said about the West Yorkshire Hurdle. I haven’t seen Black Jack Ketchum in the flash before, but he’s not physically imposing. He’s smallish, but without the sense of being a ball of energy like a Solera or a Katchit. He looked sluggish in the paddock. Tony McCoy gave him a masterful race, as he isn’t the type to find much off the bridle. He was delivered right on time, just getting up to beat Faasel. I think the problem with this horse is that connections haven’t yet picked the ideal conditions for him, or found a way to make him really want a win. He’s in a division with a number of horses with huge hearts (Mighty Man, Inglis Drever, Blazing Bailey, Wichita Lineman, etc, etc) and just doesn’t seem to want it in the same way. I’d keep opposing him. Of the others, My Turn Now looked very fit, but didn’t seem to last the trip. I’m surprised by that based on his novice runs over shorter trips. I assume we’ll see him back over 2m4f next time and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him on this form. The others were all broadly exposed, and mostly a long way from fit. St Matthew, indeed, was almost dangerously unfit, carrying weight on all hips. Given the step up in class, I’m surprised Sue Smith sent him out like that.

The next race, a handicap hurdle was more of the same. Lots of horses who needed the run, but nothing to really write home about. Circassian will have pleased connections with a brave run, jumping better than he has in previous runs, and travelling smoothly. He didn’t impress in the paddock, and I’d expect more next time out. The winner will presumably leap up in the weights, having taken this off 118. Don’t expect him to win off much higher this season.

The feature race, the Charlie Hall Chase, was taken by Ollie Magern. Sentimentally, I’m delighted, as this came just a few days after the death of his brave sire, Alderbrook. On the other hand, when you look at a list of previous winners that includes the likes of See More Business and Our Vic, a nine year old Ollie Magern returning after more than a year out is hardly impressive. Of the remainder, State of Play was smaller than I expected and looked very fit, but couldn’t stay with the pace. He may be suited by a longer trip, but it should be remembered that he was giving a fair bit of weight away. Aces Four impressed me, as I was concerned about his jumping, and he was almost perfect at every fence. He was clearly carrying condition and will come on for the run. He may benefit from softer ground, as well, but this is based more on watching him going to post than any form study. Madison du Berlais is a beautiful animal and the clear paddock pick, but he may have been outclassed.

The last race saw Gaspara’s bubble burst. I saw that coming, but I thought it would be the unimpressive Artless who took the spoils. Annie’s Answer got up by a head, but who knows what this form is worth? Gaspara did look as though she’d come on for the run, but I wasn’t hugely impressed. Let’s see how she goes with a more challenging pace against a better field.

In all, it was a good day out at a great venue, but I think there is work to be done for the racecourse management team. I will be abroad on Boxing Day so I won’t get to see it, but I hope they get soft ground and have sorted the track out. I hate to say it, but for the big day at a premier track, this was a real disappointment.

Horses to follow:
Knockavilla. Extremely impressive prospect.
Leonardo's Friend. Next year.
Circassian
Madison du Berlais. A potential Paddy Power Gold Cup horse? Well weighted on this form.

Charlie Hall Day Preview

2007-11-01T17:42:00.000Z

My forthcoming trip to Wetherby, always the pick of the early-season meets, is losing appeal by the day. I spent 11 years of my life around the corner from this racecourse, and I can assure you that they shouldn’t need to water the course in November. This year is ludicrously dry. Coupled with the changes to the course (as criticised by Paul Nicholls in the Post last Sunday), we’re not seeing the quality that we’re used to, particularly in the chase races. Still, there are some very promising races on Saturday. I’m posting this before the final decs tomorrow, so things may change, but I’ve a few thoughts on some of the races I’m anticipating.

The beginners’ chase is one of the races that is below the usual standards. Moon Over Miami was the highest rated of these over hurdles, but disappointed me at Kempton, and I think that taking him to Wetherby, which is bumpier, with tighter corners and stiffer fences, will make things worse. I’d back him not to finish before I backed him to win. Many of these don’t have any experience over the bigger obstacles, and I’m almost tempted to draw a line through all of them. If I were a trainer, I certainly wouldn’t send my horse to Wetherby until it had proven itself over fences at a less demanding course. The pick of the entries for me is the impressively bred Water Taxi, who runs for Ferdy Murphy, and did well over fences in a hot little novice chase at Carlisle last week. Ferdy’s horses tend to come on for a run, and I’d expect to see him perform well.

I have absolutely no opinion on the second race, a novice hurdle, until I see the horses parade. Nice to see a number of previous winners in the field, though, and it would be a surpsise if this race doesn’t throw up some future stars. The novice chase next up is a 0-115 handicap. Strange to see a race for such lowly handicappers in the middle of this competitive card. There are few potentially progressive sorts in the race, the two which catch my eye most particularly are Donald McCain’s Bouncing King (who has one his last two starts, so will presumably only be available at reasonably short odds) and Silent Bay, who is proven over these fences, and should improve for his second last time out.

You can’t fault the field for the West Yorkshire Hurdle (which is apparently now sponsored by John Smith’s, Yorkshire’s most ordinary beer; let’s hope something more palatable is available for on-course consumption). Many of the main fancies for the World Hurdle are turning up, led by Inglis Drever, Black Jack Ketchum and Blazing Bailey, as well as the highly promising second season hurdler Chief Dan George. I’d be very surprised if BJK stays the distance, and Inglis Drever seemed to have lost interest at the end of last season, and has been running over hurdles since the 2003/04 season. For me, it’s between Chief Dan George and Blazing Bailey, with a preference for the latter. I’m planning on getting an ante-post bet on Blazing Bailey before he demonstrates his superiority over two main rivals at the weekend. Should the unlikely happen, and we get some rain, course specialist St Matthew will be worth a look as an each-way prospect.

I can’t see past Gaspara in the Mare’s hurdle, who has the experience and the quality to destroy the field. Whether there is value in backing her remains to be seen. The Charlie Hall Chase over an extended three miles is next, and the field is not all it should be, with the likes of Denman and My Way de Solzen not declared despite initially positive noises. State of Play is a worthy favourite, and if fit will be tough to beat. Aces Four may be the class of the field, but as discussed, Ferdy’s horses tend to benefit from a run. I’m wary of ignoring Iron Man, who has had an extraordinary summer. I’ve dismissed his chances in each of his last five races, and he’s won three. That said, I think this may be a leap in class too far. Heltornic won’t benefit from the ground being so firm, but is another with the class to go close. If Ollie Magern or Monkerhostin are fit, they’ll be very interesting. Depening on the paddock inspection, though, I may well view this as a favourites race.

The last race on the card is a handicap hurdle, with Atticus Boy going for a four-timer and Hi Dancer going for a hat-trick (although he’s had two third places on the flat since his last spin over hurdles). Oniz Tiptoes runs, following his win over fences at Kempton last time out. That day, I marked him as one to follow, and he’s adept over hurdles and rated 21lb lower over the smaller obstacles. However, it was his jumping that let him win on his last outing, so it’ll be interesting to see how he performs. Difficult to state a likely selection or shortlist until the first betting show and final decs are available.

I’d love to hear any thoughts on any of the races; edredonbrowny@gmail.com, or the comments section of the blog with your selections! Full review to follow on Sunday or Monday. Stay lucky.

Weekend Tips

2007-10-27T13:03:00.000+01:00

An interesting set of cards for the weekend. I won’t embarrass myself by sharing tips for the Breeder’s Cup, except to say I think that English Channel is value in the BC Turf. My other key tip for today’s races is not to even think about betting on Stratford’s races today. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a worse card for a Saturday, at any British course.

For the big races tomorrow, I agree with the bookies that Monet’s Garden is tremendous value and will benefit from a small field and a flat track. He’s being given weight by Kauto Star, and it may well be enough. I’d love to be proved wrong as horses like Kauto have to achieve something magnificent to further improve their legacy; this may be one of those races.

I’d also like to see Degas Art do well. As discussed before, this is a horse I adore, and 15lb is a substantial pull for Katchit. Again, Degas Art will be suited by a flat track and a small field. If he’s to win at al this season, it’ll be tomorrow.

For today’s racing, I’d thought Salaasa ran well in 5th at Listowel and he should come on for that, and I think 8/1 is a silly price in the 1.10 at Aintree. McNamara’s horses have a good record coming across, and the leaders in the market haven’t done much to convince me that they want it, at a new level of class for all these horses.

Sky Hall in the 5.20 at Naas has Nina Carberry aboard and is running for Noel Meade, and is hard to see past these connections knowing what they’re doing. 3/1 available.

Finally, King’s Revenge runs for Alan King who is rounding his string into impressive early season form. He goes in the 2.10 with Choc Thornton aboard and looks a likely sort. With Master Nimbus upped in the weights there doesn’t look to be must for him to beat. 8/1 widely available.

Plumpton, 22/10/07

2007-10-24T13:30:00.000+01:00

Monday was a typical day at Plumpton. I can think of no higher praise. It’s still my favourite race course, and a great day out. I know that the races aren’t the highest quality, but so long as they are competitive, who cares? The crowd is friendly, the venue intimate, and it’s the most visible course I’ve been to. It could do with a lick of paint, but couldn’t we all? My one major criticism is about the landings on the chase course: the spongy chalk soil compresses easily and the landings can be very firm. We went out to the fence at the top of the home straight for the 3m+ chase and it was obvious they’d done some work, but the ground didn’t look right. The authorities need to look into moving fences or the ground will keep getting worse.

As to the races themselves, the first was run at a furious gallop and won from well of the pace by Rapid Increase ahead of the favourite, Soulard. A lot has been made of AP McCoy picking the wrong horse, but even geniuses make mistakes sometimes. Noel Fehily gave the winner a patient ride and came home impressively, but little can be made of the form. Ohana, who has been pretty dreadful so far, was handy throughout and finished third. He looked well in the paddock, and clearly improved in this race, but his prominence weakens the form in my eyes. Rapid Increase is clearly one to watch but I’m unconvinced that he’ll repeat this win next time out. It just wasn’t a good race. Also worth noting that Sonus’ progeny tend to be quick ground, well-balanced types, and we may see Rapid Increase become something of a course specialist.

If AP erred in the first race, his ride on Money Line made up for it. I’ve never seen a more impressive feat by a jockey, as he willed his nag over the line, never really going to work on him until after the last. Flat to the boards, it won by nearly a length, despite never looking the best horse in the race. The horse he beat, Irishkawa Bellevue, is a nothing sort of horse, and again, little can be made of the form, although Red Echo ensured a true run race. He was my paddock pick and if dropped in trip or raced of the pace, we might see improvement.

Amnesty was yet another Plumpton winner for the Moores, and came home with my money on board at the absurd price of 15/2 (although the official SP was 7/1, 15/2 was available at the off. Worryingly, I agree with John McCririck - the new SP rules shaft punters). She’s Humble surprised a lot of people, myself included, with her run in second, and looked all over the winner from a mile out to the final fence. She’s not a particularly well balanced type but on a more galloping track could improve. She and Lady Suffragete looked well in the paddock, and the latter looked to have reserves after closing to within five lengths of the winner. Given a more aggressive ride, she may improve.

Nothing needs to be said about the next, except that 9/4 was a silly price for the winner, Highland Chief, who was the best in the paddock, best over the fences, and best traveller in the field. He was value for double his official 16 length victory and is worth backing regardless of how aggressive the handicapper is (and expect a substantial rise). Based purely on his jumping, he’ll win again, and Alan King is likely to campaign him wisely.

Silver Serg won the next one in a slow time from a rank outsider, after Red Opera made all and tailed off. This was certainly a good test of stamina over 2m5f, but nothing particularly impressed. Haligreen carried the Edredon millions after impressing in the paddock, but his hurdling technique left a lot to be desired and he was well beaten a long way from home.

The next was a more or less meaningless 5 horse handicap chase (effectively four horse, as No Way Back lost a lot of ground by wheeling at the start, after which he lived down to his name). This was run at a slow pace and won by the favourite who showed the most up the hill. All these horses look fairly exposed and it’s hard to see promise from any of them. Castlemore impressed me with his jumping, but was very one-paced. It’s hard to know how connections would find him an easier race.

Finally, the bumper was won by Ocean du Moulin, racing for Paul Nicholls, who never looked like losing. He’s a smallish sort, and difficult to see him coping with a penalty. This was his third bumper and we must assume he’ll go over hurdles sooner rather than later. I’d want to see him jump before I backed him. Quintessentially is a beautiful horse, but he never behaved, and had nothing left from a long way out. This is the second time he’s run, and his stamina is an enormous question mark. Ashley’s Poppy attracted support based on breeding, but never showed. He was backward in the paddock, and may improve, but he’ll need to after missing a place in this one.

Horses to follow from this meeting:
Red Echo (if dropped in trip)
She’s Humble
Lady Suffragette (with a different jockey)
Highland Chief – just a really, really impressive horse

Kempton, 21/10/07

2007-10-23T08:59:00.000+01:00

It is such a pleasure to get two days of NH racing under my belt. The new season really feels like it’s started now. Let’s take them one at a time and start with Kempton. The “new” Kempton Park is… peculiar, to say the least. Really, it is two tracks co-existing. There’s a vaguely uneasy feeling; like being around parents who are together for the sake of the children. For instance, and let me be quite clear about this: national hunt stewards should not be asked to wear turquoise polo shirts and black baseball caps. Not ever.

Of course, it is all the fault of all-weather racing. I don’t like it, but I accept that it is here to stay, and it is one of the most profitable ways to run a racecourse. Kempton’s AW track has led to a new grandstand with a cavernous hall between paddock and course, filled with bookies, big screens and bars. You go to drink, probably to gamble, and maybe, occasionally, to see a race. The big statue of the white horse doesn’t really fit in. However, Kempton retains a few days of top-class jumps action and it is worth putting up with the commercialism to see them run on a track which, for all it’s flatter than a pool table, is a fair test, especially over the larger obstacles. Also, it has it’s own train station, which is a major plus. It's also only fair to point out that views of the back straight of the course are far better from the new grandstand than they ever were before.

As to the races themselves, the first was a juvenile event with a rather small field. This was won in a fast time (almost all of the races were fast, testimony to the excellent and fast jumping ground) by Tinagoodnight. As a filly making her first run in the UK, she claimed 13lb off the geldings, both previous winners, who came second and third. Mick Fitzgerald kept her handy and gave her a good run, and she went on readily enough from Callisto Moon. She looked good in the paddock but it is easy to worry how she’ll handle a penalty, as she isn’t the biggest.

Callisto Moon is mightily experienced, and is presumably due a break, having had seven runs over hurdles since June. Hopefully he’ll come back stronger, as he always seems to find one too strong in a finish. Inchlaggan led throughout and jumped better than he did when winning at Huntingdon, but had no answer down the home straight, and ultimately disappointed connections finishing a distant third. The only other horse of note is Sam Lord, who bolted and performed a bonus lap of the track last time out at Huntingdon. Even though he was a good boy on Sunday, he was easily held throughout. He looked well in the paddock, if a little patchy in his coat, in the paddock, and one imagines Alan King has his thinking cap on. Perhaps a longer trip will be tried? Time will tell.

The beginners chase that followed had five chasing debutants, all decent hurdlers, and one of them, Moon Over Miami, considerably better than decent. I was surprised he wasn’t given another year over hurdles, as he won races because of his jumping, and an entirely different technique is required for fences. Noel Fehily never really had him looking comfortable and his race was lost when he blundered at the penultimate fence and finished fifth A major disappointment, particularly because he had looked as fit as any other in the paddock.

Mahogany Blaze won despite a colossal blunder in the back straight, and was a worthy winner from Muhtenbar, but the time was slower than most (although quicker than standard). Mahogany Blaze looks every inch a tall, sparse chaser and will benefit from the experience, but the stronger, slightly backward Muhtenbar jumped more tidily and may be the one to keep an eye on in future.

The novice hurdle featured one of the stranger sights I’ve seen in racing; three horses in an eight horse field all falling independently of each other three hurdles from home. Of these, Hansomelle was already struggling and hadn’t impressed either in the race or the paddock. However, both Alsaada and Zero were travelling well enough. Whether they could have caught the principals is another matter, but if they suffer no ill effects, either could be worth following next time out, particularly Zero, who led with his inside leg and may be better going round the other way. This is of particular note as they all came to grief hurdling on a bend.

Of the winners, French Opera gives a solid guide to form, and Deep Purple had to work hard to beat him. Given Elusive Dream’s comfortable victory over the same horse, this makes me reluctant to give too much credence to this victory, and Deep Purple must improve to take on the best novices. Indeed, this form is perhaps less impressive than his summer victory over Pigeon Island at Newton Abbot. Deep Purple was impressive in the paddock, where many of his rivals looked a bit backward, particularly Another Bottle and Zamboozle, who both disappointed in struggling to third and fourth in a depleted field, but may well come on for the run.

The handicap chase saw Lennon making his handicap debut against an apparently beatable field of well-exposed chasers. He’s a beautiful horse, dark and solidly built, but he was unhappy and staring in the paddock. I was surprised headgear wasn’t tried after his Arkle performance, and I am still surprised. That being said, he behaved himself more sensibly on the course than at any point last season, taking a firm but not strong hold of the bridle and travelling beautifully. It is worth noting, however, that the race was run to suit him, as he didn’t have to compete for his lead. The problem for Lennon was his jumping, which was erratic throughout. He continually jumped left and only seemed to find a stride into a couple of fences. He still travelled well enough to lead handily and had the race won when he slammed on the anchors at the last. Denis O’Regan kicked him through it and he paddled on, finishing a distant third. Hoo la Baloo, finally getting a win, headed Bleu Superbe at the line. Both these horses are on the decline and weighted to the hilt, let’s hope the handicapper is lenient.

It was good to see Alph win the next at a big price, after he impressed me in his last win at Plumpton in January 2006. He looks every inch a chaser but has flattered to deceive and never lived up to his talent, especially over the larger fences. However, he came out looking very well (although he’s hurt me like that before, and I elected not to back him). He never looked like losing, and credit must go to his new trainer Robert Teal for turning him out in such good heart. Let’s hope he can repeat the feat. Liberate stayed with him throughout and seemingly came on for last week’s disappointment. An impressive juvenile last year, he may struggle to win much as a 4yo but will benefit from races like this. Of the rest, Zilcash was backward in the paddock and ran tired, but is entitled to come on for the race. Form suggests he is no match for Liberate but connections seem to have ambitious plans, which on the face of Sunday’s performance may be unrealistic.

The final race saw my only winner of the day, but luckily enough it was a 20/1 each way shot. Oniz Tiptoes has run well previously, and jumped perfectly, in novice events at Market Rasen and Sedgefield over the summer. Poor hurdle form was uninspiring but the horse was fit and eager in the paddock, and once again jumped perfectly, the win never in doubt. He will inevitably shoot up the handicap for this facile win and connections will find life difficult (especially as he has the action of a fast ground specialist), but he’s a progressive sort, and jumping like his wins races. Keep an eye on him. Of the others, Underwriter looked best in the paddock and was a blunder away from laying down a serious challenge. Bestofthebrownies, in ninth, was a second disappointment for Howard Johnstone, who came a long way to see two horses jump like they’d never seen a fence. Expect extensive schooling sessions in County Durham this week, and expect Denis O’Regan’s presence to be required.

The charity race was run by backward looking horses, with trainers canny enough to use the excuse for a 1m4f racecourse gallop at an even pace. It was a pleasure to see the great jockeys having fun, competing for the win, and raising money for some very worthy causes. I was amazed to see some books being run on the race, but I stuck my usual stake in a charity bucket instead. Full marks, to, to the Stewart family, for putting Hoo La Baloo’s winnings to the same cause.

A review of Plumpton will follow as soon as I find the time to write it.

Horses to follow from today’s meeting:
Oniz Tiptoes
Tinagoodnight
Muhtenbar
Zero

Graduation Hurdles?

2007-10-18T21:55:00.000+01:00

I contribute a little to the BBC 606 racing forum (as Edredon Browny, in honour of the great Edredon Bleu), and this post is sparked by a conversation I had on there, which sadly didn’t become the useful debate it could have been, as we were overtaken by various inane bickerings. In discussing Howard Johnstone’s string, I mentioned Degas Art as a horse I really like. The response was essentially “he’s four, what are they going to do with him all year?” It’s a fair point.

Here is my response: “Agreed. I was slightly surprised we didn’t see him on the flat, a la Detroit City, but it isn’t really Howard Johnstone’s style, I suppose. The brief notes in his stable tour say that he won’t be stepping up in trip, and that a lot will depend on the handicapper.

This makes some sense to me; presumably a light campaign, looking for good ground handicaps on flat tracks, with, perhaps, a biggish race like the Fighting Fifth or the Bula. He didn’t say, but I assume the Coral Cup is the best option if he wants to go back to Cheltenham, but an Aintree festival race would be seem more likely to suit. I haven’t heard the stable mention it, but I’m concerned he hasn’t acted in a big field race yet.

The long term plan is presumably a serious crack at the 2009 Champion Hurdle, and then I could see him stepping up in distance, as he’s got something of Mighty Man about him.Whatever he does, he’s a horse I adore, and he has enormous long-term potential. He just suffers from the fact that all the biggest races are held on undulating tracks with large fields, and he’s four”.

Given the awful record of four year olds in the Champion Hurdle, even the connections of Katchit must have concerns for their pride and joy. The likes of Degas Art, Pouvoir (beaten off a light weight in a Chepstow handicap on Saturday) et al must be truly frustrated by a year effectively on the sidelines after a promising juvenile campaign. It’s a real problem. Obviously, you can’t let these horses in with the other novices. Nor do you want them just getting stuffed in grade 1s or wasting their “pulling power” for the sport in handicaps.

So here’s my ideal solution. A small number of “graduation hurdles” for four and five year old (five and six after January 1st) second year hurdlers. I’m sure you’d get small fields but with sufficient funding you’d get big names, and get to big courses. I realise that graduation chases have been a disaster, but my proposed entry criteria are far less restrictive. Young, second year hurdlers deserve a chance to strengthen and develop at big courses and the crowds, I think, want to see them. So why not?

Racing reviews and 2 to watch

2007-10-16T17:56:00.000+01:00

I’ve not been commenting on many races after the first couple of posts. This is more because I don’t think, on reflection, that I can add anything. I will flash up any horses who have particularly impressed me. The first of these is Knockavilla, who is from Howard Johnstone’s stable, and ran a very strange race at Carlisle last week in a bumper, but despite drifting very wide and making life very difficult for Denis O’Regan, he never looked like losing, and seems set to improve for a greater challenge, and benefit from the experience. The second is Gwanako, who held off Pouvoir at Chepstow despite giving away 14lbs. Gwanako is an impressively bred French horse who missed last season with injury. Nicholls commented that he expected his horse to need the run; I believe that he stuffed a very worthy second and must go on to better things.

As far as more detailed race reviews, expect these to return when I go racing live, and can bring a little more personal opinion to bear. I’m at Kempton on Sunday and hoping to see Black Jack Ketchum run, and at Plumpton on Monday. Then I’m not going anywhere until I hit Wetherby for the Charlie Hall Chase, a real highlight of the early season. I recommend keeping parents within 10 miles of Wetherby. This also improves Boxing Days considerably.

Bookworm's Corner

2007-10-16T17:53:00.000+01:00

There’s a rush of previews at the moment, and the value of these is a real puzzle to me. Why, really, do I read these things? Paul Nicholls has hundreds of horses, all of which will have a year novice hurdling, then go chasing. They all look like chasers already, but it’s too early to say what they’ll do. All his established stars have had a good summer break and have come back looking better than ever. Yawn.

I’m not picking on Mr Nicholls; indeed, his willingness to talk honestly and openly to the media is a huge boon to uninformed punters such as myself. He’s also no more or less optimistic than any of the trainers who we read about. I spent a good hour studying every word of Sue Smith’s stable tour in the Racing Post today, and I don’t think it told me anything I didn’t know going in. Some trainers, admittedly, are more useful, in that they pass on campaign plans, but that’s about all you can hope for.

I found the solution to this problem last year; Mark Howard’s “One Jump Ahead”. A marvellous book, and hugely profitable. He doesn’t go to every stable, but he hits a lot of the big ones (Nicholls, King, Johnson, Murphy, Willy Mullins, etc) as well as picking up some extremely useful pointers from Anthony Bromley, the pre-erminent French bloodstock agent. The analysis, and the author's willingness to add his own "40 to follow" to the trainer's comments, seperate this from the usual trainer's guff.

There aren’t many books that I rely on; mostly I study races with the Racing Post and the previous year’s form book. The biggest compliment I can pay to Mark Howard is that his book is always within reach on a Saturday morning, right next to the coffee pot.

Coming on for a race

2007-10-03T18:23:00.000+01:00

October seems to be an awful month for me, as far as finding winners is concerned. Iron Man’s win (albeit in September) is a good example. Handicaps at this time of the year are even more of a lottery than normal, as you have summer jumpers going on softer ground than they like, as well as some of the horses from the bigger stables making first appearances. Having been very impressed by French Saulaie last season, I backed him believing he was well handicapped and a solid jumper. He just didn’t look good enough to stay the pace, which I think must be about fitness. My only question about Tell Henry on Tuesday was how he’d jump. He jumped well, but tired. Let’s hope he’ll come on for that.

I’ve never been a big believer in opposing horses first time out, as the majority of trainers seem to have their horses very fit before they see a racetrack, and most horses seem to run very well fresh. When there are exceptions (like Denman, who is universally known as a “stuffy sort”) we hear a lot about it. More often than not, you only hear “he needed the race” after a well-backed horse has been beaten. Still, French Saulaie made me wonder. Maybe he really did need the race? I’ll be back on board next time he runs, anyway, and hoping for better things.

Sedgefield on Tuesday

2007-10-03T18:22:00.000+01:00

An interesting day’s racing at Sedgefield, a track I’m fond of as it seems to produce form that works at a number of tracks. The ground was officially good to firm and the jockey’s comments seemed to support that. So it was disappointing to see the races all come in a fair way slow of standard times, particularly if you time to the second or third horses where there is a distant winner.
I’m not sure many of the horses from the first division of the 2m1f will go on to great things. Red Chairman won handily, and was given a confident ride, but the competition wasn’t great. I’m sorry to say I was on Harcas, who was a distant third and never looked like getting closer. Not sure if there are any excuses to be made for his performance. The other horse that intrigued me was Itzacliche, which came in with decent enough form in a Cheltenham hunter chase. He looked the part, as far as the ATR coverage let on, but was never in the race. He will presumably be over fences sooner rather than later.

In the second race, Atticus Bay won by a couple of counties, but the time was slower than the first race. Not sure if Jonjo and AP will send out a worse horse than Gun Smith, but he didn’t deserve his share of the prize money for second place. The third race was a very ordinary seller, made even worse by a loose horse getting in the way of the leading group, and perhaps hampering Red Sun most of all. Still, Freedom Flying looked good for her win and came through in fine style. She might pick up another couple, especially with rides like Barry Keniry gave her today.

The beginner’s chase was a much more promising race (in which my selection, Silverhay, was travelling well, but hammered the first and finally removed the persistent Charlie Poste at the eigth). Megaton stayed on well for third following the bizarre disqualification of Sir Bathwick, and must win. Tell Henry was a smart hurdler who jumped well but tired, after a long break. He was carrying enough weight and may prefer a shorter trip. He’ll improve on that second. Karelian looked a tidy winner and presumably will step into handicaps next. On this form, she’ll be respected.

Snow’s ride did nothing wrong to win the handicap hurdle, but this was a race in which nearly every horse looked one-paced or exhausted in the end. Not an impressive race and hard to see too much coming out of it. We can be kind and call it a pipe cleaner, which may give the most hope to the connections of Oeil D’Estruval. Singalongtasveer finished strongly and might have promise if the right race was found.

The race of the day was won by Best of the Brownies, and the RP summary is right to give the plaudits to Howard Johnson’s new jockey, Denis O’Regan, who stuck it to the champ on the line. I’m biased, as this was my first winner since Freedom Flying, but didn’t he do well? I’m sure the handicapper will have his say, but both the winner and Basic Fact in second should be followed in the next couple of races. Best of the Brownies will only get fitter for a fair test. Let’s hope Basic Fat jumps in a straight line at the last next time out, too.

The last went to the favourite, and looked a typical novicey type, which would have benefited from more experienced jockeys. Alpha Juliet exceeded my expectations, but little can be made of this race for any of them. The race, more than any other, served to underline my major problem with Sedgefield; a 2m5f+ race with just six hurdles, as two were excluded. That is an awful lot of ground with very few obstacles. Something needs to be done as conditions were pretty typical and all the hurdles should have been used.

Market Rasen on Saturday

2007-10-03T18:21:00.000+01:00

It's no surprise that I'm writing this first entry in the week that C4 televised jumps for the first time this season (the first scheduled time, I should say, as they were at Market Rasen over the summer following an abandonment on the flat). The 2-day meet in Lincolnshire was much-hyped, and I'm not sure it entirely lived up to the fuss. Certainly, I'd be surprised if any horse replicates Katchit's achievement last year, in winning at this meeting and going on to take a race at Cheltenham.

The only horse on the card that I thought had a chance to do that was Blu Teen. What a disappointing run. He clipped a couple of fences, one quite badly, and it seemed to take the heart out of him. Prestbury Knight went past him, and I'm not convinced that he's the second coming of Desert Orchid. Obviously, there's still potential for Blu Teen to have a good season, but Market Rasen is not a difficult track, it is flat as you like and the fences are quite forgiving. He'll need to put in a race of fluent jumping and a bit of courage before he runs with my money on board again.

I was stunned to see Iron Man's performance, as I thought the handicapper had got ahead of him at this point. He's obviously highly progressive and his handicap will direct him towards the top races from here. I'm not totally convinced he'll win many more, but he clearly jumps well and travels effectively, and he's got to be respected.

I also lost money backing French Opera on Saturday. I make a habit of opposing horses going over hurdles for the first time, especially at odds-on prices. It's been broadly profitable over the years, but French Opera, though a gallant second (and I had lots of seconds this weekend) couldn't stick with Elusive Dream. We clearly saw a smart horse running for top connections, and he jumped fluently enough. Ruby gave him a tidy ride but didn't have much to do, and they won with something to spare.

I'll still look to oppose him next time out, though. Six is old for a novice hurdler, and I think he'll find there are quite a few out there who match him for stamina and do him for speed. Listening to connections, it doesn't sound like he'll act on bottomless ground, so I don't know where he'll find wins against better opposition. Still, Mr Nicholls clearly doesn't agree with me, and he has a reasonable track record in these things.

Generally, I was a bit down on this meeting. I just don't like Market Rasen as a course. They go the wrong way (right handed), on an easy track, and it never fails to throw up some funny winners. The form of some of these races might work out, but I will look to oppose the horses that are victorious at this track, as they often turn out to be course specialists.

Why am I here?

2007-10-03T18:17:00.000+01:00

Well, I'm never going to write a proper diary. That's been tried, and has failed, time without number. I'm also demonstrating an uncanny ability to forget the important lessons I've been learning as I meander unprofitably through the world of racing. So it'll be good for me, theoretically, to combine the two things by writing some form of diary that records all my thoughts throughout the upcoming jumps season.

I've decided to turn this diary into a blog, for a number of reasons. Firstly, because it will encourage me to keep it going, which is a good thing. Secondly, because it might bring me into contact with other racing fans, which is a very good thing. Finally, because I am very fond of the sound of my own voice, and I labour under the illusion that others might be, as well.

So what am I hoping to put into this blog? Really, all the things I try to tell my wife, that make her eyes glaze over. There'll be thoughts on the meetings I attend over the winter, and the courses which hold them (I intend to visit seven courses between now and Christmas, many for the first time). There'll be thoughts on big races I've seen on TV, and on horses which have caught my eye. I may even branch out into other areas of sport, and life in general. It's unclear. I'll certainly be responsive to feedback, so please, let me know that you're reading, and tell me what you think.