Royal Ascot preview

As promised, an Ascot preview. Apologies if this becomes disjointed – I have been delayed in finalising and posting this, and as a result have updated based on final declarations for Tuesday's racing.

The sprints:

These races have lost a lot of lustre in my eyes, as the two most promising 3yo sprinters both bypass the Golden Jubilee to try their luck over a mile. Dream Ahead, returning from a minor injury that ruled him out of the Guineas, will take on the mighty Frankel in the St James’ Palace, whilst Maqaasid, 3^rd in the Guineas and seemingly not staying the trip, goes to the Coronation. In my view neither of these horses truly stays a mile (we have less evidence in the case of Dream Ahead, but he shaped as a sprinter as a juvenile, and there is little in his pedigree to suggest he wants to go far) and both would be dangerous with a 3yo allowance against older horses over 6f. The withdrawal of Lady of the Desert through injury is a shame, too, and weakens the King’s Stand as a contest

In their absence, I won’t be having a bet at this stage, as the most useful trial for the Jubilee is the Kings Stand. Delegator is a worthy favourite but might just prove a 7f specialist, the saddest fate of all for a group 1 horse. Let’s wait until after the King’s Stand.

For the King’s Stand, I think Sole Power needs a paved road to show his best form, and the recent rain may have done for him. Kingsgate Native certainly goes on the shortlist, as he has good recent form (second to Sole Power at Haydock) and has won at the festival before, in the Jubilee as a 3yo. 6f form is essential to perform well in this race. Prohibit is one I like at a price and he’s on the shortlist, and Monsieur Chevalier is another who performs well at this meeting. Let’s wait and see what weather, rain, withdrawals and the draw do before placing any bets.

The stayer:

Sometimes you build a shortlist by elimination. This is one of those times.

I’m seemingly in the minority in thinking that Fame and Glory won’t stay the Gold Cup trip. I know this is a unique and long race, but there are lots who won’t stay this year, as far as I can tell. Rite of Passage is doubtful to turn up, and must be considered doubtful to run his race if he does. Duncan won the Yorkshire Cup well enough, but this is 6f further and I can’t see him managing it. Blue Bajan and the Betchworth Kid are handicap hurdlers. Kasbah Bliss is exposed, a doubtful runner, and won’t have the right ground. Geordieland is a monkey, and Cavalryman is a dog who won’t stay.

Sometimes you find a winner by elimination. This is one of those times.

From my shortlist of Holberg, Manighar, Brigantin, Askar Tau or Tastahil, I can only see one probable winner. Askar Tau might stay this trip on class and pedigree, but is unplaced the three times he’s gone more than 2m, and has never tried this trip. Holberg has never gone more than 2m, and it is very difficult to back a bin Suroor horse until they show they’re firing (which could easily happen early in this festival). Manighar, too is a doubtful stayer and will have to reverse form with Duncan and Blue Bajan, and I’m not convinced he can. Tastahil looks to lack the class for this level (unplaced last year) and is not certain to act away from Chester. Which leaves Brigantin. Trained by Andre Fabre, he is yet to try more than 2m, but is only four and thus still getting stronger. His pedigree gives him a scrape at the trip, and his best form is on the sort of good ground he can expect here. In what seems like a weak renewal behind a favourite I’m keen to oppose, he looks the winner.

HOWEVER: Ben, who runs the wonderful Narrowing the Field blog, is a racing mate who I trust. He knows a thing or two about the dosage method, and he doesn't think Brigantin will stay (We talked about this on twitter). He does think Fame and Glory will. So you can go with my gut, and a big price, or his gut and science, and a small price. Frankly, I can't fault you if you go with him.

The other championship races:

The Queen Anne is being billed as a straight contest between Canford Cliffs and Goldikova. Personally, I can’t see Goldikova winning. I even suggested recently that she might not place. I’m backing off that statement slightly, partly because I would hate to see such a wonderful and consistent horse underperform, and partly because the race is lacking strength in depth. I still think that, against the boys, and now six, she’s going to struggle to quicken past them. Last year, she narrowly beat Paco Boy, and the Hannon contestants this year are simply better horses. Canford Cliffs looks the winner to me, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dick Turpin, or Cape Blanco chasing him home in second. I really hope I’m wrong, though. C’mon Goldie!

Update: Dick Turpin will miss the Queen Anne, improving Goldikova's chances of second, as only Cape Blanco is remotely group one class of the remainder.

Workforce will swerve the Prince of Wales for the Eclipse, depriving us of a mouth-watering contest with So You Think. In the Derby winner’s absence, the most dangerous opponent for the Aussie superstar will be Planteur, impressive winner of the Ganay back on 1,000 Guineas day. Rewilding is third in the market, but in my view won’t give of his best unless he’s going 1m4f or further (he would have enlivened the Coronation Cup last week). I really don’t think this is a contest. Planteur (assuming he is left in) is a genuine group one horse, who’ll have the trip and ground to suit, and would grace any field. However, So You Think is, I believe, in a different league from any horse in his division and is worthy of his very short price.

The 3yo races:

I’ve said already that I think Dream Ahead is a sprinter who won’t stay; for me Frankel is a clear winner of the St James’ Palace (not revolutionary thinking, I know) and I think that Dubawi Gold and Excelebration (who might not stay a mile in this class) are the likeliest to finish behind him.

The fillies’ race (Coronation) will be more open, but Memory is yet to win over more than 6f and will need to leave her Guineas run well, well behind her. She’s capable of that on class, but I’d like to see it before I start backing her. The competition doesn’t look particularly stiff, with most of the top horses from the two Guineas stepping up in trip (the two winners having faced off in the Oaks last week). Theysken’s Theory, stepping up in class after a nice win at York, is still open to improvement and must be expected to place, but my suspicion is that something will prove too good for her, but I don’t know what. As a result, I’m keen not to bet on this race.

I’m not going to look at the King Edward or the Ribblesdale until some of the horses are taken out; the bulk of the good horses are doubtful runners at best. However, after a weak Oaks, the Ribblesdale will be one for the notebook, and I’d keep an eye on whomever Cecil sends to the King Edward (with World Domination the obvious choice). Horse to follow Solar Sky is a probable for the Queen's Vase, and the Galileo son doesn't look like two miles will be a problem for him. He is a likely bet when a market appears.

The juveniles:

Coventry:

This represents my first ante-post bet, on Commissar (I took a NRNB ante-post on Brigantin). Regular readers will know that I fell in love with this horse when I saw him on 1,000 Guineas day, though I was still surprised by the ease with which he won that day. Obviously I wasn’t the only one to be impressed, as Godolphin swooped (early in the year for them to be buying talented juveniles) and he is now an inmate of the talented Mr al Zarooni. Coral’s 16/1 was an outlying price and I was happy to get on board. This looks like a good contest – it is typically the best juvenile contest in the first half of the year – and Fulbright, in particular, is to be feared, but the step up to 6f should suit the selection.

Albany:

I remember reading the hype of the bloodstock industry about the first season sires’ yearlings last year. Sir Percy, Teofilo, Dark Angel, et al, were all supposedly throwing wonderful youngsters. Wait and see, I thought. Well, we may not have to wait too much longer, as the early results are exceptional. All have produced very forward juveniles who show signs of improving as they age.

Of all of their collective offspring, however, the one that I think the most of won a listed event last week at Naas. Yes, Teolane, daughter of Teofilo from a versatile racer called Masnada (rated 101, multiple winner over 7-10f), is my idea of the Albany winner, and now appears on my horses to follow list. I’ll wait for the final decs to back her, and will wait and see what Ward’s horses do on the first days, but I really think she’s special. I just wish she was trained by anyone other than Jim Bolger. The wound is still raw from watching him ruin the career of the beautiful and talented Cuis Ghaire (but there is happier news on that front, as Al Maktoum will own her offspring, and her sister’s). 

Queen Mary:

Shumoos is a short-priced favourite, and goodness me, does she deserve to be. She was hugely impressive in winning at Haydock, quickening away from a good field. The form was well and truly franked when Frederick Engels sluiced up on his next start, at Musselburgh. He goes in the Windsor Palace, so we’ll have another chance to assess her form before she runs. Even without that check, though, the only way I can see her losing is if she misbehaves badly in front of the big crowd, or if she is turned over by a Wesley Ward speedball.

Looking ahead with this year’s juveniles:

There’s nothing worse than the Guineas markets in autumn and winter. The value has dried up, all the horses are fairly priced, or shorter, and there’s no such thing as a certainty where growing and staying healthy are concerned. So it is rare that I bet before the start of the 3yo season – ideally, either side of the trials. This prejudice only grew stronger when I backed Peter Martins the week after Cheltenham, a fortnight before it was announced he’d miss the first half of the season.

The radical conclusion, then, is that if you’re going to bet on juveniles, bet early so that you have a price to justify the risk. Both Commissar and Teolane have the pedigree to stay a mile, and are with trainers who will aim them at the top (even Bolger can’t avoid running Teolane in decent races, surely?). If they win next week, their prices will collapse, and there’ll be no value until the last week in April. So I’m getting on both now, in the hope I’ll have some tickets that’ll keep me warm all winter.

Ante-post focus (for the purposes of monitoring, all bets are level stakes (2pt win or 1pt e/w):

Commissar – 16/1, Coventry – e/w (Coral)

Brigantin – 22/1, Gold Cup – e/w (Victor Chandler – now 16s generally)

Commissar – 33/1, 2,000 Guineas – e/w (Bet365)

Teolane – 20/1, 1,000 Guineas – e/w (William Hill)