Saturday, 7 May 2011

Four more runners

Still feeling awful, and yesterday's runners definitely didn't help.  Three disappointing performances, and I'm now seven points down before I've registered a win.  Still, I'm hoping for two recoveries today - from my bug, and from my performance on the horses to follow front.  On the latter, four horses go today and I am still optimistic that all have chances.  First, though, a review of where it went wrong yesterday:



Coeus
Finished fourth of seven, having had a chance a furlong from home.  Hayley Turner (a jockey I love to see on my horses) was, I think, unable to cope with his keeness, and the pace didn't suit.  There must be a question of whether he stays 7f but I think if he settled better off a faster pace, he would.  He remains on the list but won't be backed next time out, until we see if he's better than this.
2 pt loss.

Laahooj
Finished fourth of six, like Coeus having had a chance a furlong out.  I do think, in this case, we saw a horse who didn't stay the trip, and I may have been optimistic in thinking he'd improve for the step up in trip.  This was also a step up in class and it didn't look like he enjoyed it.  I'm removing him from the list but will keep an eye on him with the possibility of returning him onto this list should he do better next time.
2 pt loss.

To The Spring
Finished a well-beated sixth of eleven, tired 2f out and hanging badly at the end.  This was by far the most disappointing performance of the week.  With the favourite, and the only apparent danger, Misrepresent, also underperforming, it is hard to say that this was a good race (even with a good gallop, the time was comparable to or slower than other races on the card) but she was well beaten and didn't even look particularly genuine.  She's struck from the list.
2 pt loss.

Current position: 4 bets, -7 points.

Eucharist - Lingfield, 2.10
I'm happy to see this beautiful filly turned out again soon after her Newbury run, but disappointed I'm not well enough to watch her in the flesh.  Eight run and this looks tough, with the impressive Flambeau odds-on to follow up on her bloodless Leicester win in a listed contest.  The selection is available at 10/1 and I'm backing her each-way, confident in a place and hoping she can upset the favourite.  It's too complicated to include in the system, but I'm also having a little bit on a reverse forecast with Eucharist and Flambeau.
1 pt e/w at 10/1

Verdant - Ascot 2.20
Six go to post, of whom three look realistic contenders.  I'm happy to back Verdant, as the odds-on shot Alainnmar is back after a year off with a fracture.  He's a talented horse but it is hard to know what fitness and ability he'll show.  The third horse, Shamali, loves Ascot and is fresh, but is giving away weight and isn't as good as Verdant on RPR, OR or TS.  I loved watching Verdant run last time and I hope he's doing it again, off the front, in this race.
2 pt win at 5/2 

Laashak - Lingfield, 4.20
This is a tough-looking 1m2f maiden and the selection will be up against Audacious, rated 86 for his juvenile efforts and making his seasonal debut.  A Stoute inmate and Motivator son, you'd certainly expect him to be better this season and in truth, I wouldn't normally oppose.  Still, I do think a lot of my horse, who has the benefit of a run this season and 6/4 isn't a bad price in what looks like a match race.
2 pt win at 6/4
 
Bourne, Haydock, 5.20
Again, this is a bet I wouldn't be looking to make were it not for the pleasure of following one of my selections.  This is a eight-horse handicap (Lord Raglan is a non-runner) and the selection is just 4/6.  In truth, he does look a class apart from these, but funny things happen in racing and I'm not convinced he's an odds-on shot.  Azimuth (value at 12s) is one I'd particularly fear.  I'm going to put my money where my mouth is, but the bet is reduced as the value simply isn't there.
1 pt win at 4/6 

7 points staked.

1 comments:

EdredonBrowny said...

Was also dumb of me not to point out that Eucharist has the plumb draw along the stand-side rail, with Masaya (drawn 8) a non-runner to her inside. Helpful!