A couple of thoughts on trainer form

I promised a few “how I bet” columns. I wanted to get a couple of trainer systems down quickly as they obviously have a limited shelf-life.  For now, they appear to be working effectively.  I hope they prove profitable.

Mark Johnston:

This idea started to germinate in my head when I was reading his stable tour in the Horses to Follow (link!) racing post book.  He was bemoaning the lack of success of his juveniles last year, and was unable to provide any decent explanation for why this happened.  I then noticed that a few Johnston 3yos (State Opera most obviously) on my first visits to flat races this season.  They were often the most striking animals in their races – physically imposing specimens, superior athletes to the horses around them.  Priced up on their form, they seemed to consistently run to a level corresponding with what we saw on the day, not what we read in the formbook.

The numbers:
Gathering stats on this has been tricky, as I only have Johnston’s full race record for 14 days.  In that time, he’s had 3 qualifying horses, one second at 5/1 and one third at 14/1 (the third unplaced).  Yesterday's qualifier, Colour Vision, was the 3rd at 14/1 at Chester, and I must apologise for my tweet this morning, which confused today's Satin Love (had already run and doesn't qualify) with yesterday's Colour Vision.  More general figures (not for first time out horses) show us that Johnston is 21-95 for a 22% strike rate with his 3yos in handicaps, well above his typical 17%, although he does show a small level stakes loss.  Impressively, in all races in January, his 3yos were 14-22 (64%) for a significant level stakes profit, again suggesting that the yard has recovered from whatever ailed it.

A couple of example horses – Kingscroft won his maiden and 3 out of 4 handicaps to start this season, and has been raised 16lbs in the handicap.  Pretty Diamond has gone up 10lbs for a first and two seconds so far this season.  Obviously, progressive 3yos are to be expected, but the success here goes beyond anecdote.

My theory: 

For whatever reason, something was wrong with the Johnston juveniles last season, and they did not run to the standard that, physically, would be expected of them.  This year they have come back into the yard and are making a mockery of the marks they’ve been granted. 

The angle: 

Back Johnston trained 3yos, making their seasonal debuts in handicaps.  They may be expected to run better than their form and should be backed e/w if at a price bigger than 12/1, or to win at smaller prices. 

Coming up - the following horses have entries and are qualified for this system:

Sky Falcon – 4.05 Nottingham, 7 May

Regal Kiss – 6.10 Windsor, 9 May

Andrew Balding:

This idea came from attending racecourses (often with a friend who seemed to like a number of Balding horses).   His yard traditionally has a decent first time out strike rate (though don’t ask me to quote numbers, I couldn’t find them anywhere) and thus we’re often seeing RP comments along the lines of “goes well fresh”.  Well, I’ve been watching these animals in the paddock.  This year, they are not going well fresh.  I assume this is weather-related (perhaps his animals aren’t using the gallops they usually use for pre-season work), but it doesn’t really matter.  They need the run, badly, and are worth a second chance.

The numbers (manual calculations, so apologies for any errors):

Balding is 3-54 with first time starters (5.6%) with just one first time out winner among those making debuts after 1 April (that is, horses who weren’t active over the winter).  Of horses making a second run, he is 3-18, and 2-8 since 1 April (at 100/30 and 6/1).  He also had a 16/1 second among qualifying horses after 1 April, and two other placed horses.

My theory: 

Balding horses are less fit than the betting world/market setters expect, and thus they assume that horses are running to form first time out, and underprice them on their reappearances.

The angle: 

Back Balding trained horses second time out if they didn’t win their seasonal debut.  They can be expected to come on much more for their first run than the market expects.  Do not back Balding horses first time out.

Coming up - the following horses have entries and are qualified for this system:

Set the Trend – 6.40, Windsor, 9 May

Moment of Time – 7.40, Windsor, 9 May

Abergeldie – 4.40 Warwick, 10 May