As I hoped, I’ve carved out some time to look at my placepot for Ayr. I’m posting it in advance of the racing taking place so that you can see, hopefully, the thought processes I tried to explain in my last post.
Shape of the card:
This is definitely not a big meeting. The highest prize to the winner is £5.5k, and there are plenty of horses rated in the 40s taking part. Still, fields are fairly sizable, with 65 horses currently declared over the six races. The first race is a juvenile maiden, whilst the remaining five are handicaps. No handicap will have 16 runners or more thanks to an unfortunate non-runner in the second bringing the field down to 15.
There are a couple of short-priced favourites in the handicaps, but nothing I’d trust as a banker, and that suits me, because handicap bankers are a recipe for sleepless nights. I’m therefore thinking about a largish single perm, if I can find a banker in the first.
I can. VC’s early show has Letsgoroundagain at 8/11; if anything, I think that is long. He was 4th, and visually impressive, in the Magic City maiden at Newbury. Although the winner hasn’t franked the form, lots of others have, and it is probably the best juvenile contest so far this season. A scopey Redback colt, he’ll enjoy 6f, and is drawn best of all in stall 1. Of the dangers, Holy Roman Warrior gets a good write-up in Taplin and goes for Fahey/Hannigan. He’s dangerous, but drawn wide. I’d be tempted to back him as a winner (5/1 is a good price) but I don’t care if he beats the selection. 3rd would be fine. My one concern is a non-runner – if I see one, I won’t place the bet, as I’d be down to seven runners and needing a banker in the top two of a maiden.
I can’t find anything I particularly like in the third or the sixth, and that leads me to take something of a scattergun approach. At the moment, I’m planning a big perm.
Going through the card:
Race one – As discussed. I’ve watched a vid of Letsgoroundagain, and of Joshua The First (nearest to favourite on form), and looked up all the horses in Taplin. Nothing I’ve seen gives me any concern that I shouldn’t have Lets as a banker to place.
Race two – This is a typically trappy placepot handicap, with 15 runners. I just want to survive this, whilst keeping my perm to a minimum. The favourite is Yours, with the pundits seeming to expect a step up in trip to work some improvement. I watched a video of his last start and he struck me as a hold-up horse making late improvement, not a horse needing further. I might be wrong, but for 7/2 and favourite in this race I’d want more confidence in his suitability. Second favourite, Juarla, doesn’t appeal to me, as nothing in her form suggests she acts on turf, and top weight with a 6lb penalty could easily be enough to stop her (at this grade of racing, penalties have a bigger impact as they’re a much bigger proportion of the rating that a horse has earned).
What horse do I like? Well, none of them, very much. Dotty Daroch is running better this season than previously and appears to get along with Lee Newman. 6f might be the right trip for her, and she’s included. These Dreams has had plenty of racing, but never at 6f and on turf, both of which independently have suited her. She’s another who might nick a place. Finally, a chance is taken with Passing Moment, who hasn’t run terribly in handicaps, might enjoy a drop back to 6f, and is paired with a jockey I don’t have an opinion on (as opposed to Andrew Elliot, a claimer who stands out for his incompetence, although I’m sure he’s a lovely guy).
Race three – This one is really, really trappy. 5f handicaps always are, and although the ratings in this field are the highest of the day, it is hard to get excited about any of the competitors, and wide coverage is key. I’m not sure why there is an expectation that Duchess Dora will overturn form with Judge ‘n’Jury, and I’ll be on the latter (also marginally better drawn in stall 2). Hopefully, Duchess will be the favourite. However, I want plenty of cover to survive this leg and I’ll also take Mayoman (excellent strike rate but needs to overcome draw), Le Torreador (can overcome rise in weights, gets on with jockey) and The Nifty Fox (reliable, well-drawn, canny connections).
Race four – This one seems the most straightforward of the handicaps, and the market agrees, with Divine Call (evens favourite on opening shows) representing Cheveley Park and Haggas on her handicap debut, having taken a maiden on her fourth start as a 3yo. Keiron Fallon rides, and a mark of 78 seems lenient. However, she’s obviously not the most reliable (lost all three turf starts at short prices, once odds-on) and is lightly raced. Her fitness and attitude need to be taken on trust, and I’d like a second option.
That option is Cara’s Request. This means taking the first two in the market, but you can’t be contrary for the sake of it. Cara’s Request has been placed in 7 of his last 8 starts over 7f (winning four). He’s the better drawn of the Nicholls duo in this race and is likely to give a good account of himself (though he may be high enough in the weights).
Race five – This one got more complicated when Eparnay was declared a non-runner. It is an object lesson in the complications of planning a placepot, as there is no clear favourite, and four horses need to be considered as potential market leaders. Of those, a look at the form makes me keen to oppose Madame Excelerate (did not behave herself on her last start) and Amtaar (back after well over a year, high in weights, moved to a lesser yard) but liking the others.
Casino Night (jockey is 2-1-1 in four starts, C&D winner) and Spavento (finally broke maiden LTO, consistent and has placed of higher marks). I’m also selecting Many Welcomes, who is currently 17/2 but sixth in the market, and thus likely to be underbet. She’s also, in my view, priced based on an AW run over 9f. Back on turf over 8f, I’d be hopeful of her overturning that form.
Race six – The last race on the card is the sort that tempts me to give up on midweek placepots. This is a dire contest for exposed staying handicappers. Frankly, I don’t know why they bother. Adding to the pain, it is currently an eight-runner handicap, and as it is the last race, there is a real danger of it being reduced to seven after the bets are placed. This cries out for extensive coverage.
I’m taking Trojan Gift (highest rated and only four, might be least bad), Oh Landino (has placed form LTO) and Ballade de la Mer (won this contest last year). I’ve not got any great confidence in any one of them, but hard to imagine a scenario in which all three are unplaced.
Initial Selections:
1 – Letsgoroundagain (6)
2 – Dotty Daroch (5), These Dreams (7), Passing Moment (12)
3 – Judge ‘n’ Jury (1), Le Torreador (6), The Nifty Fox (7), Mayoman (8)
4 – Cara’s Request (2), Divine Call (6)
5 – Casino Night (2), Spavento (7), Many Welcomes (9)
6 – Trojan Gift (1), Oh Landino (8), Ballade de la Mer (9)
This gives me a perm of 1x3x4x2x3x3 = 216 lines. I try to keep my stake between £20 and £40, so a 20p bet would be slightly beyond my limits (though manageable) whilst a 10p bet would be at the bottom of the limit. I can also look at my bet and make changes – individual selections being only one part of shaping a bet.
If I’m betting to stakes of less than 50p, I need to see realistic evidence that I can double up my stake repeatedly unless lots of outsiders come in. My feeling about the card is that we’re unlikely to see all the favourites placing, but that a huge dividend is less likely than usual, because most races have a few prominent horses. I am expecting a dividend in the £100 range, with races 2,3 and 5 being the trappiest. I’d be hopeful of having at least two horses placed in race 3 and 6, which would give me 40p to a 10p stake, even if no others doubled. If I come up, then, I’d put the lowest likely gain at £40 (or roughly double a £1 stake).
The race that keeps worrying me, though, is race 4. The favourite needs to be in my selection, but she is more vulnerable (in my view) than the price suggests. Whilst Cara's Request is the obvious cover, Adrian Nicholls prefers the other stable entrant. I’d hate to miss a bumper dividend if the first two fell out of the places, and a third selection would give me 324 lines, or £32.40, and a feeling of significant confidence if my banker places in the first.
Northern Fling is a market mover in the third but has never won over a mile and never looked like he needs it (from reading the form). Academy Blues (1) may be off his highest mark, but he was 2nd over a mile LTO and is happier over this trip. With Adrian Nicholls riding for his dad, he’s added to the selection.
Unless I’m surprised by non-runners, then, the bet will be:
6; 5+7+12; 1+6+7+8; 1+2+6; 2+7+9; 1+8+9 for 324 lines at 10p/line = £32.40.
Best of luck to those of you playing. I’ll be back later to look at how it has gone.
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